Mike Clay 2020 NFL projection

[Stingray3030]

4 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

well below avg= oline, dline, cb, linebacker

maybe avg = safety, te, qb

above - rb, wr

Interesting - I would say:

below avg = oline, cb, te

avg = safety, qb, lb

above avg = rb, wr, dline

A little surprised so many think KK, Brown, Burns, Weatherly - YGL, Haynes makes a below average Dline unit.  I think they could be pretty nasty if Brown and YGL are who they are predicted to be and Burns takes another step forward.  

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, Stingray3030 said:

Interesting - I would say:

below avg = oline, cb, te

avg = safety, qb, lb

above avg = rb, wr, dline

A little surprised so many think KK, Brown, Burns, Weatherly - YGL, Haynes makes a below average Dline unit.  I think they could be pretty nasty if Brown and YGL are who they are predicted to be and Burns takes another step forward.  

I would like to hear you explain how a dline that consists of 2 rookies, an vet coming back from a major injury who was already declining and a 2nd year player who got pushed around in the last part of the season.  So much he was a liability to even play?  Add the fact that there is literally no depth behind that then I would say for this season its going to be a long one for this unit.

[jfra78]

8 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

well below avg= oline, dline, cb, linebacker

maybe avg = safety, te, qb

above - rb, wr

Oline is average compared to the rest of the NFL.  

DL

Burns - Above

Short - unknown but potential to be above and should be no worse than average

Brown - Above

Weatherly/YGM - Average at best

[jfra78]

6 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Oline is average compared to the rest of the NFL.  

DL

Burns - Above

Short - unknown but potential to be above and should be no worse than average

Brown - Above

Weatherly/YGM - Average at best

 

[mrcompletely11]

Not sure how you can say burns and especially brown are above average.  That's a bit odd

[LinvilleGorge]

20 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Yes

That's hilarious.

[Stingray3030]

2 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I would like to hear you explain how a dline that consists of 2 rookies, an vet coming back from a major injury who was already declining and a 2nd year player who got pushed around in the last part of the season.  So much he was a liability to even play?  Add the fact that there is literally no depth behind that then I would say for this season its going to be a long one for this unit.

Like this:

- the dline starters are 2 vets, 1 rookie, and one 2nd year - backups are 2 rookies and 2 young players 

- I don't call 2 rookies, both predicted to be first round picks to be anything less than average - so plug them in as avg

- I don't agree that Burns is moving backwards - most predictions I have seen have him having a well above avg year

- I don't agree KK was declining past above avg - I call him above

So Burns and KK above avg, Weatherly, Brown, YGM average.  Overall that is above avg to me with upside potential.

[stbugs]

7 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Not sure how you can say burns and especially brown are above average.  That's a bit odd

I agree with you. Can’t be above average with multiple rookies. In a year or two, maybe but YGM isn’t as talented as Burns, he might not even play much. Short is a huge question mark. He was ok in 2018 and he’s a year older after missing last year. They are all learning a new D as well.

Injuries will happen and that’s when our horrific depth will show up. Hopefully, key guys don’t get hurt but our depth is suspect at best. 

[TheSpecialJuan]

3 hours ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Ah yeah dog.  This is some good  stuff.   A time killer for sure

 

https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/20/NFLDK2020_CS_ClayProjections.pdf

 

spoiler alert he has us pegged at 2nd worse with 4 wins.  Trevor Lawrence (or justin fields) come on down

 

 

yay!

[mrcompletely11]

35 minutes ago, Stingray3030 said:

Like this:

- the dline starters are 2 vets, 1 rookie, and one 2nd year - backups are 2 rookies and 2 young players 

- I don't call 2 rookies, both predicted to be first round picks to be anything less than average - so plug them in as avg

- I don't agree that Burns is moving backwards - most predictions I have seen have him having a well above avg year

- I don't agree KK was declining past above avg - I call him above

So Burns and KK above avg, Weatherly, Brown, YGM average.  Overall that is above avg to me with upside potential.

This is so blue tinted I am not even sure I should respond.

 

Just because 2 rookies were supposed to be drafted in the first round doesnt mean they are going to come in and play balls out.  For starters players bust all the time.  Even if they dont they are still rookies learning the game, scheme, chemistry etc....

Burns became such a liability in the run game last year he couldnt see the field.  I get he is a good pass rusher but we need him to be a 3 down guy now.  Can he do it, who knows but I sure as hell know he isnt an above avg player right now.  Also, how in the hell can you say KK is above avg?  This just doesnt make one lick of sense.   He play was going down before the major injury.  I just dont see your logic here.   You keep saying weatherly is avg but in truth he is just a body.  I wouldnt even call him an average player.  Just a dude that is going to be rotate in time to time

 

And you still fail to mention the lack of depth.  Which obviously is going to be huge when the rookies hit the proverbial wall. 

[jfra78]

11 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

This is so blue tinted I am not even sure I should respond.

 

Just because 2 rookies were supposed to be drafted in the first round doesnt mean they are going to come in and play balls out.  For starters players bust all the time.  Even if they dont they are still rookies learning the game, scheme, chemistry etc....

Burns became such a liability in the run game last year he couldnt see the field.  I get he is a good pass rusher but we need him to be a 3 down guy now.  Can he do it, who knows but I sure as hell know he isnt an above avg player right now.  Also, how in the hell can you say KK is above avg?  This just doesnt make one lick of sense.   He play was going down before the major injury.  I just dont see your logic here.   You keep saying weatherly is avg but in truth he is just a body.  I wouldnt even call him an average player.  Just a dude that is going to be rotate in time to time

 

And you still fail to mention the lack of depth.  Which obviously is going to be huge when the rookies hit the proverbial wall. 

This is your problem, you think playing balls out is average

[Sgt Schultz]

He may be right, he may be crazy.  But it just may be a lunatic we're looking for.

Pardon the liberties with those words.

I don't put a lot of stock in predictions at this point.  They can be fun to look at, but there are so many assumptions, unknowns, and variables, who could possibly know?  We don't even know for sure what anybody's week 1 roster will look like.  Nobody has had a chance to end the season due to injury in training camp yet.  So, predictions need to carry the disclaimer used on every economic analysis: all other things being equal. 

But all other things are never equal.

Last year, when the season started everybody agreed on one thing: the Miami Dolphins were going to be drafting #1 and were epic bad.  Most thought they would not win a game.  Some thought they would not even get close. 

Through the first four weeks, that looked all true.  Including the "they won't win a game or even get close" prediction.  Through seven weeks, most of it still looked true (they were only borderline epic bad in the three games in between those two checkpoints).

Then they won 5 out of their last 9, and none of it was true.

It is kinda why they actually play the games.

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

He may be right, he may be crazy.  But it just may be a lunatic we're looking for.

Pardon the liberties with those words.

I don't put a lot of stock in predictions at this point.  They can be fun to look at, but there are so many assumptions, unknowns, and variables, who could possibly know?  We don't even know for sure what anybody's week 1 roster will look like.  Nobody has had a chance to end the season due to injury in training camp yet.  So, predictions need to carry the disclaimer used on every economic analysis: all other things being equal. 

But all other things are never equal.

Last year, when the season started everybody agreed on one thing: the Miami Dolphins were going to be drafting #1 and were epic bad.  Most thought they would not win a game.  Some thought they would not even get close. 

Through the first four weeks, that looked all true.  Including the "they won't win a game or even get close" prediction.  Through seven weeks, most of it still looked true (they were only borderline epic bad in the three games in between those two checkpoints).

Then they won 5 out of their last 9, and none of it was true.

It is kinda why they actually play the games.

vegas had their over under wins at 5

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2019-nfl-win-totals-vegas-released-totals-for-all-32-teams-here-are-our-favorite-picks-for-2019/

 

And the vast majority of the time when vegas says you are going to stink you are going to stink.  And that is what they think of the 2020 panthers.  Sure there are outliers but they are spot on more times than not

[stbugs]

34 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

This is so blue tinted I am not even sure I should respond.

 

Just because 2 rookies were supposed to be drafted in the first round doesnt mean they are going to come in and play balls out.  For starters players bust all the time.  Even if they dont they are still rookies learning the game, scheme, chemistry etc....

Burns became such a liability in the run game last year he couldnt see the field.  I get he is a good pass rusher but we need him to be a 3 down guy now.  Can he do it, who knows but I sure as hell know he isnt an above avg player right now.  Also, how in the hell can you say KK is above avg?  This just doesnt make one lick of sense.   He play was going down before the major injury.  I just dont see your logic here.   You keep saying weatherly is avg but in truth he is just a body.  I wouldnt even call him an average player.  Just a dude that is going to be rotate in time to time

 

And you still fail to mention the lack of depth.  Which obviously is going to be huge when the rookies hit the proverbial wall. 

Greg Little was supposed to be a first round pick. Some 2nd rounders outplay 1st rounders but still the end the day you either are a first round pick or you aren’t. There’s only 32 slots so just because one draft analyst had YGM as a 1st rounder doesn’t mean he was. If that was the case there’d be 55 first rounders every year.