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The Past 10 years of First Round QB Drafting


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21 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Take those players that have made it from later rounds and divide by the number of players drafted. Do the same for the first round.  Your chances are exponentially higher in the first. 

I think most of us on the board agree with the above statement. Still, I can't help but think that there are other quarterbacks who have never been given a fair shot to earn a starting job in the NFL. We all know of cases were players at other positions are drafted in the middle/later rounds and have become pro-bowl or even all-pro players. A late round QB is usually viewed as no more than a backup. A guy drafted in the 1st (or 2nd) round is always going to get the benefit of the doubt over the guy drafted later because the team has more invested in him. He's going to get more reps in practice and more time to prove himself before being pulled.  

Most teams aren't willing to give up on a highly drafted QB after 1-2 seasons. The early releases of Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins are a couple of exceptions, but even then neither of those guys was drafted by the HC who released them.



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Yea like others have pointed out already this isn't saying anything without the data from the other rounds. I doubt the point is "it's hard to get a QB"

There are only 32 starting QBs you wouldn't expect to see a starter who sticks around for an elite career every year in every draft much less just round one. There are only a hand full of elite QBs and then the same goes for just simply good. The dropoff from the Top 5 QBs to the next 5 is noticeable and from then to the next 5 is big then after that it's dramatic. 

So you're really looking at 15 players for comparison as no one is actually saying they want the 29th best QB from their RD1 draft pick. 

Good chart and interesting to see all put together though.

Edited by Fox007
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On 1/20/2021 at 4:22 PM, AU-panther said:

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

I think the better thing to look at is the team drafting the QBs. How many of those guys were setup for failure by being part of bad teams and bad organizations?

People want to draft a QB because they think this is Madden, and the QB fixes all of the problems.

We certainly need a QB, but if we're going to have one succeed, then when need to make sure he has an offensive line that won't make him a $30 million dollar IR lifer, and a WR or TE that can go up and get the ball consistently (while also allowing our burners to do their work).

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On 1/20/2021 at 4:07 PM, AceBoogie said:

2010-2016 was a terrible time to need a QB. 

THEORY:  The NFL was still adjusting to the changes in the college game.  Their offenses were not ready for the new QBs college was producing. 


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