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The Past 10 years of First Round QB Drafting


CarolinaSunday
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There is a lot of discussion in the various threads about whether the Panthers should draft a QB at #8, go after a free agent, or trade for a QB (you know who I mean).  Threads have popped up about what it would likely cost to trade for a QB and whether any of the upcoming free agents are worth taking a shot on.  

To help round out the discussion, I made a chart (I love charts) of the QBs who have been drafted in the first round in the past ten years and how long they were with their respective teams.  It was interesting to me that the earliest draft in which a QB was still with the team that drafted him was *2016*.  Although there are earlier drafted QBs still in the league, and some of them are still starting somewhere, I think you can see there are not a lot of barn burners here. I think drafting a QB is a crap shoot and you don't really know what you're going to end up with.

Of this list, I see 4 QBs who made it to the SB (depending on how you count Carson Wentz, I counted him since he was a large reason why they made it) and 1 QB who has won the SB (did not count Wentz here since he did not play). (Josh Allen could be added to this tabulation this year, we'll see).

And 2013... woof, man.

image.thumb.png.03a7d770008ea8a8148a6b191818a2ca.png

 

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Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

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1 minute ago, AU-panther said:

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

Exactly. Also, looks like 23 of the Week 17 starting QBs (I'm including Mahomes, Burrow, and Ben here since they'd typically be starting) were all drafted in the first round (I'm also including Brees since he was pick 32, but that was top of Rd 2 back then). Another 2 were picked at picks 35 (Dalton) and 36 (Carr); excluding Dalton since he's a backup would drop the total to 22. From there guys like Lock, Henne, and Hurts were 2nd round picks.

Wilson, Brady, and Cousins are the only quality starters chosen outside of the first round.

I'm not making any definitive statements, but the Week 17 data support your premise. 

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19 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

I don’t know too many people vouching for drafting a QB after the first. Most arguing against drafting one in the first are doing so on the notion that you need to sell the farm to do so. 

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Just shows me you need to take the leap if the draft has quality options because there are years where signing a random vet and just having fun is better than letting your need push you into drafting a dud. 10-16, holy cow we lucked in with Cam. 

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It's not necessarily that they're all bad. Some of these guys might actually have been pretty good if they'd gotten better coaching. Heck, look at what happened with Tannehill, or even with Josh Allen.

Coaching and development matters...a lot.

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1 hour ago, AU-panther said:

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

I did this math a while back.

Round 1 QB's generally make it about 50% of the time (48% to be exact) over the last 25 years.

Round 2-7 QB's generally make it about 11% of the time over the last 25 years.

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1 hour ago, BrianS said:

I did this math a while back.

Round 1 QB's generally make it about 50% of the time (48% to be exact) over the last 25 years.

Round 2-7 QB's generally make it about 11% of the time over the last 25 years.

out of curiosity what was the standards for "making it"?

I would have thought it was even less for both categories.

 

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6 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

out of curiosity what was the standards for "making it"?

I would have thought it was even less for both categories.

 

There are some pretty decent statistical breakdowns of that over the years. It just depends on your specific criteria.

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3 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

It's actually funny how heavily weighted the league's new crop of elite or potentially elite QB's are towards the past 5 years of the draft. 

 

That’s why I wanted to go for broke this year because it seemed like a good crop of top QBs. QB draft classes are hugely inconsistent which is why people who just grab stats on say top 5 QB picks or QBs in the past 10 years are missing the picture. You have to look at each class separately. Peyton Manning <> Jamarcus Russell. We may find that 2022 to 2026 is as bad as 2010 to 2016 unless you get the right #1 overall pick and regret skipping on a QB at #8 (#3 was so close).

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