Predicted Outcome of Darnold Trade

[trueblade]

I always look at these types of questions with the mindset of what is most likely to happen. Of the options presented, a Teddy 2.0 outcome (career highs in TD/Yards but still clearly a marginal NFL QB) that makes us competitive) and a Jake outcome (not an elite QB but shows he can make us competitive) are quite similar. Darnold's most likely outcome in probably in that range.

• Gets beaten out as starter(rookie/Teddy/etc) - 5% chance
• He is who we thought he was(same inconsistent player - bust) - 20% chance
• Teddy 2.0(career highs in TD/Yards but still clearly a marginal NFL QB) - 35% chance
• Jake 2.0(not an elite QB but shows he can make us competitive) - 35% chance
• Adam Gase is QB Poison(Shows why he was the #3 overall pick - Franchise QB) - 5% chance

Edited April 6, 2021 by trueblade

[Growl]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

The biggest contribution that Peyton Manning exhibited in 2015 was to Brock Osweiler's pockets. In fact, Brock was a far, far, far, far better QB on that team in his 7 starts for Denver. 

Peyton was the worst starting QB in the NFL in 2015. Your memory must be of pre-2015 Manning.

if that’s so, then that player promptly retired because he wasn’t good enough to play in the national football league anymore

the panthers just made “that guy” their Franchise

 

[TheRumGone]

8 minutes ago, PhillyB said:

i know predictions are fun for their own sake but i don't know how anybody can even reasonably make a prediction on this. it feels like a complete coin toss.

it's encouraging a decent nfl front office thought he was good enough to trade capital for

discouraging that he was like Plan E

who knows.

this seems more like 70/30 mayyyyybe 60/40 if we’re lucky he’s gonna flop here. Just based on his history. The people who are saying Sam is a product of a shitty coach with shitty surrounding talent need to deep dive into his games. He made boneheaded plays even when the line held up and receivers were open. He made terrible decisions and terrible throws. This happened often it’s not just a handful of times. Some of this is because he’s a young player who is raw and learning but some is like you just can’t make those throws ever. Even rookie qbs know not to throw some of the times he did. The talent around him did him no favors which is why I’m even giving him some credit that he could have a career year here. Because we are vastly better offensively. And he can lean on cmc. 
 

he reminds me a lot of Favre without the success. He is a gunslinger and can make plays on the move and outside the pocket but sometimes watching him I question his football iq and if any of that can even get better with coaching after 3 years in the league. Bad habits are hard to break. I know Gase was horrible but I don’t believe for a second that the coaches were letting these wtf plays slide. 

[kungfoodude]

Just now, jfra78 said:

The original comparison was Jake not sam,  but you changed the narrative. Jake in his Superbowl losing year was a better QB than Manning in 2015,  his legacy really doesnt matter on this situation

There haven't been many QB's since Peyton Manning in 2015 that have been as bad with at least 9 starts in a season. I am amazed anyone can forget how terrible he was.

[jfra78]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

There haven't been many QB's since Peyton Manning in 2015 that have been as bad with at least 9 starts in a season. I am amazed anyone can forget how terrible he was.

Bad thing is we as panther fans had to sit and watch that poo happen to our team

[Ready 2 Win]

Its just fun to think about what might happen. No matter if he is a bust, he is cheap. There is nothing but upside. I personally an excited to see what will come.

 

[imminent rogaine]

32 minutes ago, Growl said:

“jake type player” isn’t good enough to win Super Bowls anymore 

You guys are super bowl or bust? Man, just give me some playoff runs for now. Just no more shitty seasons for a while.

[Growl]

7 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

The original comparison was Jake not sam,  but you changed the narrative. Jake in his Superbowl losing year was a better QB than Manning in 2015,  his legacy really doesnt matter on this situation

no, the original point was that you can’t build a consistent winner with these types of players anymore, you could highlight Denver as an isolated example, which I’ll say is fair, but the problem is that Denver moved on from that guy promptly whereas the panthers just made that guy the face of their team

Edited April 6, 2021 by Growl

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Growl said:

if that’s so, then that player promptly retired because he wasn’t good enough to play in the national football league anymore

the panthers just made “that guy” their Franchise

 

2020 Darnold has some inkling of potential to be better, albeit unlikely. 2015 Peyton Manning was the crushed remains of the shell of an NFL player. 

Not a great comparison. Also, there are more suspect QB's that go drug to championships in the past 25 years. Joe Flacco, Nick Foles, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson come to mind. There is an argument for Eli Manning, although he is probably somewhere in between the great QB's and the average guys. 

 

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Bad thing is we as panther fans had to sit and watch that poo happen to our team

I know. I honestly thought it was going to be the easiest opponent we faced all playoffs. I still to this day believe that to be the case, for that matter.

[Growl]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

2020 Darnold has some inkling of potential to be better, albeit unlikely. 2015 Peyton Manning was the crushed remains of the shell of an NFL player. 

Not a great comparison. Also, there are more suspect QB's that go drug to championships in the past 25 years. Joe Flacco, Nick Foles, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson come to mind. There is an argument for Eli Manning, although he is probably somewhere in between the great QB's and the average guys. 

 

those guys played in a different of football

stop pretending like you like the move

[jfra78]

1 minute ago, imminent rogaine said:

You guys are super bowl or bust? Man, just give me some playoff runs for now. Just no more shitty seasons for a while.

Back to back winning seasons would be a nice place to start

[Growl]

2 minutes ago, imminent rogaine said:

You guys are super bowl or bust? Man, just give me some playoff runs for now. Just no more shitty seasons for a while.

here’s how you build a loser team

[GoobyPls]

He’s better than Teddy, still not good enough to be a franchise QB. Toil away in NFL purgatory