I'm A Jets Fan Who's Hated Every QB We've Had Since Namath; Ask Me Anything

[Little Goody Two Shoes]

On 4/6/2021 at 11:49 PM, The Goddamn Jets said:

Plus, no one over 16 drinks rum anyway, right?

Pirates, duh.

[1of10Charnatives]

9 minutes ago, Little Goody Two Shoes said:

Pirates, duh.

I already said that. 

[Mr. Scot]

3 hours ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

I already said that. 

[CRA]

On 4/7/2021 at 8:02 PM, kungfoodude said:

I mean.....look at the best if Winston and the best of Darnold. What makes Winston be "what he is" and not Darnold?

Because Winston was given the opportunity to play with a legit and deep supporting cast on offense.  For years.  And years.   

Sam has never been in a position to succeed.  Grow.  Or show what he really has.    Sam pulled off 7-9 in a poo sandwich at 22.  

I'd like to see Sam with good weapons and coaching.  We have already seen Winston in that scenario.  For years. 

 

[The Goddamn Jets]

On 4/7/2021 at 7:11 PM, tiger7_88 said:

Here's a nice, personal story about for you about Namath.

Of course Namath went to Bama.  Coached by Bear Bryant there.

I was going to Auburn at the time that Bear Bryant broke the then-record for career wins for a college coach at the top division level (what was then called Division 1-A).  The game where he broke that record?  The Iron Bowl against Auburn in 1981.

I am no athlete, but I was a pretty decent musician, so I made sure to join the Auburn Marching Band when I went to college.  Free football and free trips sounded fun to me.  So I was on the sideline preparing for the half-time show at that Iron Bowl in 1981.  A *huge* number of former Bama players that played for Bear Bryant were on the sideline for that game in order to be there for the Bear's record-breaking win (it was a closer game than they anticipated, Bama was highly ranked and Auburn was unranked and the final score was 28-17). 

Each and every one of those players on the sideline purposely ignored us Auburn folk... except for one.

Joe Willie Namath.

He was talking to a couple of reporters on the sideline and he saw a few of us Auburn band members looking at him and talking to each other (we were saying things like, "Yeah, that's Joe Namath alright") and he excused himself from the media by saying "Excuse me for a moment, I have to go over here and talk to some of my Auburn friends."

And so he did. 

INCREDIBLY nice man.

Oh, and in addition to that, even though I was and am an Auburn guy, back in the 1960's I got this incredible gift from Santa Claus:

I've heard some really positive stories like this.

[The Goddamn Jets]

On 4/7/2021 at 7:33 PM, Basbear said:

Whats the current deal with the fireman fellow? 

 

Please dish out some rumors on Sam Darnold that never got told to the public. If none make up a few. 

Nothing all that interesting, unfortunately.

By all accounts he's a good kid that keeps to himself.

I have heard some stories about him going out to the bars after games and getting so lit up that his teammates have had to drag him home.  Nothing all that interesting there, and it sort of tracks with his age and the mono thing.

[The Goddamn Jets]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

Because Winston was given the opportunity to play with a legit and deep supporting cast on offense.  For years.  And years.   

Sam has never been in a position to succeed.  Grow.  Or show what he really has.    Sam pulled off 7-9 in poo sandwich at 22.  

I'd like to see Sam with good weapons and coaching.  We have already seen Winston in that scenario.  For years. 

 

I think the supporting cast argument is certainly reason for hope, but you can overthrow a great WR in the same way you can a lesser one, and you can not see a bad receiver the same way you can not see a great one. I also think there's merit to the fact that last year, not just Mims, but he's a good example, played two or three games with Flacco, vs. a bunch more with Darnold.  Two of his 3 top games were with Flacco.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2021 by The Goddamn Jets

[CRA]

24 minutes ago, The Goddamn Jets said:

I think the supporting cast argument is certainly reason for hope, but you can overthrow a great WR in the same way you can a lesser one, and you can not see a   I also think there's merit to the fact that last year, not just Mims, but he's a good example, played two or three games with Flacco, vs. a bunch more with Darnold.  Two of his 3 top games were with Flacco.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but I'd argue it as a mix.  It isn't just a surrounding cast argument.  I think it is that aspect....coupled with his age and coaching.   So it takes all 3 of those together to be like....yeah, we should kick the tires on Sam in Carolina. 

Joe Brady is going to put him in good spots with good weapons.     We will just have to see how Sam looks in that scenario. 

Darnold was pretty raw coming to NY.  Talented but raw.  He needed a friendly entry to the NFL.  

 

[The Goddamn Jets]

45 minutes ago, CRA said:

but I'd argue it as a mix.  It isn't just a surrounding cast argument.  I think it is that aspect....coupled with his age and coaching.   So it takes all 3 of those together to be like....yeah, we should kick the tires on Sam in Carolina. 

Joe Brady is going to put him in good spots with good weapons.     We will just have to see how Sam looks in that scenario. 

Darnold was pretty raw coming to NY.  Talented but raw.  He needed a friendly entry to the NFL.  

 

Yeah - I don't think you guys made a bad decision, based on these factors, and what you paid.  It's a relatively low risk gamble.  We'll see how it goes - obviously I'll be following along - I just think he's another USC QB who didn't work out when he wasn't surrounded by talent that overwhelmed the opponent.  Let's not forget that, coaching and talent aside, QBASE had him at a 52% bust rate, 2nd highest of the 1st round QBs (only to Allen, who has been a literal unicorn when it comes to all the statistical measures) - so we shouldn't be terribly surprised when a guy who the best metric we have for predicting duds at the position said it was > 50% he'd bust.

The funny thing is, I soured on Darnold at the combine, and then convinced myself it was nothing.  When Darnold stood next to Allen, Rosen, and Mayfield - all of them slinging the ball around, and he didn't participate, something about that was just so telling to me... Felt like he wasn't a competitor; scared, maybe.  Of course, when he fell to us, I pretended that never happened or was a smart business decision because he didn't want to be upstaged by Allen's arm.

[RumHam]

On 4/6/2021 at 11:44 PM, 1of10Charnatives said:

Yes but....

Why is the rum gone?

actually the rum is ham...

[CRA]

1 hour ago, The Goddamn Jets said:

Yeah - I don't think you guys made a bad decision, based on these factors, and what you paid.  It's a relatively low risk gamble.  We'll see how it goes - obviously I'll be following along - I just think he's another USC QB who didn't work out when he wasn't surrounded by talent that overwhelmed the opponent.  Let's not forget that, coaching and talent aside, QBASE had him at a 52% bust rate, 2nd highest of the 1st round QBs (only to Allen, who has been a literal unicorn when it comes to all the statistical measures) - so we shouldn't be terribly surprised when a guy who the best metric we have for predicting duds at the position said it was > 50% he'd bust.

The funny thing is, I soured on Darnold at the combine, and then convinced myself it was nothing.  When Darnold stood next to Allen, Rosen, and Mayfield - all of them slinging the ball around, and he didn't participate, something about that was just so telling to me... Felt like he wasn't a competitor; scared, maybe.  Of course, when he fell to us, I pretended that never happened or was a smart business decision because he didn't want to be upstaged by Allen's arm.

well, that QBASE IMO wasn't based much on play/potential but more simply the math of he played QB for 2 years in college.   And that sums up his QB resume.  Can't say that about basically anyone else.   Raw.  The last team that needed to draft Darnold was the NYJ.   Darnold was always doomed in NY. 

NFL success, especially QB success, is largely coaching/stability and fit IMO.    Especially early on.   The team you land with....has a lot to do with the outcome IMO.   

 

[The Goddamn Jets]

42 minutes ago, CRA said:

well, that QBASE IMO wasn't based much on play/potential but more simply the math of he played QB for 2 years in college.   And that sums up his QB resume.  Can't say that about basically anyone else.   Raw.  The last team that needed to draft Darnold was the NYJ.   Darnold was always doomed in NY. 

NFL success, especially QB success, is largely coaching/stability and fit IMO.    Especially early on.   The team you land with....has a lot to do with the outcome IMO.   

 

QBASE is a mathematical formula that does it's best to predict a college QB's potential in the NFL.  Have you read about it before?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/introducing-qbase-v20

It takes in a lot of factors, and it's greatest success rate is in predicting busts.  It seems to do so at a higher rate than traditional scouting.  It basically called Darnold a 50/50 prospect to bust.  Based on even what you're saying about him being 'unfinished' or 'needing development,' sort of speaks to that, no?  These are all things that very easily may not work out.

As for NFL success, coaching/stability and fit may all be hindsight analysis.  Bad QBs get coaches fired.  Darnold has put a lot of coaches out of jobs.  Good QBs keep coaches in their jobs.  Belichick has stated in the past it was his expectation to be fired after the season Bledsoe got hurt and Brady came in, but then Brady...

[CRA]

10 minutes ago, The Goddamn Jets said:

QBASE is a mathematical formula that does it's best to predict a college QB's potential in the NFL.  Have you read about it before?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/introducing-qbase-v20

It takes in a lot of factors, and it's greatest success rate is in predicting busts.  It seems to do so at a higher rate than traditional scouting.  It basically called Darnold a 50/50 prospect to bust.  Based on even what you're saying about him being 'unfinished' or 'needing development,' sort of speaks to that, no?  These are all things that very easily may not work out.

As for NFL success, coaching/stability and fit may all be hindsight analysis.  Bad QBs get coaches fired.  Darnold has put a lot of coaches out of jobs.  Good QBs keep coaches in their jobs.  Belichick has stated in the past it was his expectation to be fired after the season Bledsoe got hurt and Brady came in, but then Brady...

I was just alluding to the fact that the bust number they assigned factors in a lot....and a lot of why his number was what it was....wasn't an evaluation of his actual QB play.  

QB with only 2 years total positional experience + Top 5 selection was part of their math.    So he gets a high bust rate.   On that alone.  No matter how he plays and looks.   Because I can't name a single top 5 QB drafted in recent decades that compares. 

 

[Madwolf]

On 4/7/2021 at 3:55 PM, The Goddamn Jets said:

Mel Kiper, 2017: "I think when you look back at John Elway, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, we're going to view Sam Darnold in that same light."

Sounds like someone doesn't want to admit that they were, maybe, just a bit off here.

I remember not understanding Darnold's stock leading up to the draft, and Kiper saying that and just being blown away with how stupid it seemed.