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2021 QB1 Stat Predictions (BleacherReport)

CarolinaLivin

By CarolinaLivin,
in Carolina Panthers

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CarolinaLivin Grand Master

CarolinaLivin

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1 minute ago, rayzor said:

Very true. I think he won't be an INT machine, but he also won't be some perfectionist surgical strike guy. He'll gamble to make the big play, and I love it as long as he can make the big plays.

I don't think he'll be a turnover machine. I fully expect him to improve. How much is the question...  

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kungfoodude Grand Master

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5 minutes ago, rayzor said:

Very true. I think he won't be an INT machine, but he also won't be some perfectionist surgical strike guy. He'll gamble to make the big play, and I love it as long as he can make the big plays.

He isn't on the extreme end of the gunslingers, like Favre/Winston. You just have to weigh the benefits of the bone headed throws/decisions with the highlight reel lasers into tight windows. 

He was actually the 11th LEAST aggressive QB last season according to NFL Next Gen Stats. So, really he just needs to actually complete passes accurately more than anything.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

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1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

He isn't on the extreme end of the gunslingers, like Favre/Winston. You just have to weigh the benefits of the bone headed throws/decisions with the highlight reel lasers into tight windows. 

He was actually the 11th LEAST aggressive QB last season according to NFL Next Gen Stats. So, really he just needs to actually complete passes accurately more than anything.

Interestingly, Darnold was the 12th most aggressive passer in 2019 and 5th most aggressive in 2018.

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TheMostInterestingMan Mentor

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45 minutes ago, Madwolf said:

I would be highly surprised if he puts up that stat line. All of those would represent career highs, by no small margin, for Sam Darnold. 

It would even be surprising for him to match Teddy's yardage from last year.

Sam may turn it around this year, but that is awfully big expectations to put on his shoulders. Putting up those numbers Year 1 outside of the Jets isn't going to be easy for him, nor would it be for anyone that was coming out of a similar situation.

Well I’m a Darnold believer. The moment we made the trade, I was excited. I think he can be a franchise QB. Not elite, but a top 8-14 QB in the league (in other words top half).

That said, if he manages to stay healthy this year then my MINIMUM expectations for him are career highs across the board. He’s in his 4th year with an immensely more talented roster around him and an extra game.

If he doesn’t post career highs then I’ll raise my hand and admit I was wrong about him. I’m a believer but most QBs that stay healthy this year should be on the verge of career numbers based on the extra game. The only ones you can’t expect that from are the true elites. Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady etc. 

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

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3 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

He isn't on the extreme end of the gunslingers, like Favre/Winston. You just have to weigh the benefits of the bone headed throws/decisions with the highlight reel lasers into tight windows. 

He was actually the 11th LEAST aggressive QB last season according to NFL Next Gen Stats. So, really he just needs to actually complete passes accurately more than anything.

Pretty safe to say he'll be more aggressive than TB. Of course the bar is laying on the floor with that one.

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

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1 minute ago, Trainwreck said:

 

Darnold better post these numbers this season or Rhule will look really stupid to pass on Justin Fields. Those numbers I posted are from a QB that was drafted behind Darnold. F Matt Rhule.

Lawdy, you've got issues.

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CarolinaLivin Grand Master

CarolinaLivin

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Just now, glenwo2 said:

The bar is pretty much underground there.   😂

I think his leash will be little too tight to just go out there and be aggressive zipping the ball around.

 

With the numbers he put up the last 3 seasons and the fact that he has to learn a new offense. I don't expect him to be throwing the ball 40 times. He'll maybe hit 30 a few games, but don't expect it to be early in the season.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

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11 minutes ago, TheMostInterestingMan said:

Well I’m a Darnold believer. The moment we made the trade, I was excited. I think he can be a franchise QB. Not elite, but a top 8-14 QB in the league (in other words top half).

That said, if he manages to stay healthy this year then my MINIMUM expectations for him are career highs across the board. He’s in his 4th year with an immensely more talented roster around him and an extra game.

If he doesn’t post career highs then I’ll raise my hand and admit I was wrong about him. I’m a believer but most QBs that stay healthy this year should be on the verge of career numbers based on the extra game. The only ones you can’t expect that from are the true elites. Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady etc. 

For reference, he would only have to beat....

Passing YDS: 3024

Passing YDS/GM: 232.6

Passing TDS: 19

Passing TDS/GM: 1.5

INTS: 11

INTS/GM: 0.92

Completion %: 61.9

Rushing YDS: 217

Rushing TDS: 2

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