Stat Tracking Panthers 2021: 3rd & 4th down conversions

[KB_fan]

Here's the player data showing all week 1 & 2 3rd & 4th down attempts, broken down into 2 tables.

TMJ has the longest conversion of the season now with a nice 3rd & 10 conversion on Drive 10 which led to the CMC touchdown.  Best play of the season for the rookie!!

DJ is rocking with 5 of 6 3rd down conversions.  CMC had a great week with 4 of 5 3rd downs, just missing the 3rd & 1 on the attempt to get into the end zone from the 1.  He's 5 of 8 for the season.

[KB_fan]

Here's the running summary for weeks 1 & 2 with the breakdown by distance of the 3rd down attempts:

[KB_fan]

Been chatting with a few folks on Twitter tonight about this topic and I was asked about our success rate in converting 3rd downs on running plays versus passing.  Good question, and something I'd been meaning to track.

Here's how it stands after weeks 1 & 2:

Passing	9-22	41%
Rushing	3-8	38%

Then I was asked about our success on running on 3rd/4th & Short RUSHING plays, given that we all know the struggles we've faced on the goal line to get 1-2 yards to punch it into the end zone.  Here are all the 3rd/4th and short rushing plays so far:

So from Opponents 6 or closer we're 0/3 so far on rushing plays.  On passing plays from the 6 or closer, we're 1/3 (DJ's touchdown).

Edited September 22, 2021 by KB_fan

[Jon Snow]

8 hours ago, KB_fan said:

Been chatting with a few folks on Twitter tonight about this topic and I was asked about our success rate in converting 3rd downs on running plays versus passing.  Good question, and something I'd been meaning to track.

Here's how it stands after weeks 1 & 2:

Passing	9-22	41%
Rushing	3-8	38%

Then I was asked about our success on running on 3rd/4th & Short RUSHING plays, given that we all know the struggles we've faced on the goal line to get 1-2 yards to punch it into the end zone.  Here are all the 3rd/4th and short rushing plays so far:

So from Opponents 6 or closer we're 0/3 so far on rushing plays.  On passing plays from the 6 or closer, we're 1/3 (DJ's touchdown).

Right now the red zone woes are what is holding the offense back.

Get that fixed and this team can hold its own with anyone. 

[Snake]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Right now the red zone woes are what is holding the offense back.

Get that fixed and this team can hold its own with anyone. 

I would say it's both. One faults start and our drive stalls. Red zone we might as well just pass which makes us one Dimensional. Cause of both IMO is the Oline. We didn't get better there and we get similar results. Unless Darnold can just will us past a 3 and 9 we will lose games because of this. 

[KB_fan]

Still thinking about 3rd down conversions today... and I got to wondering whether there was any site that tracked how often teams face 3rd down on offense. (3rd down attempts as % of all plays on offense).

I didn't find one.... but with a little cutting and pasting from various sites, I was able to cobble a table together.  Here's the result:

I see an opportunity!!!  Houston has faced 3rd down on 26% of its plays.... should give Panthers D a chance to make some plays!

I've not (yet) been able to find any site that provides data on 3rd down by distance, e.g. to calculate how good teams are at converting 3rd & longs.  If anyone has any leads on where to find that data, I'd love to know.

I did find an article / site that tracked that for college football:

https://staturdays.com/2021/01/14/comparing-third-down-conversion-rate-by-distance-to-go/

In 2020, the average college team converted 3rd & 7 / 3rd & 8 about 36% of the time, and 3rd & 9 or 3rd & 10 about 31% of the time.

So far Panthers are converting 3rd and long (7 yards and longer) about 18% of the time.  But it was wildly uneven (0% Jets) (33% Saints).

Panthers Defense is holding opposing defenses to 26% average conversion rate on 3rd & long.  (38% Jets, 22% Saints).

 

Edited September 22, 2021 by KB_fan

[KB_fan]

Beginning my look at week 3 game log.  Here's a summary of the Panthers performance on 3rd & 4th downs versus Houston:

What really strikes me: 

1) The success in converting some key 3rd & longs. (3/5 not counting a penalty play)

2) The efficiency of our drives - especially in the 2nd half.  In the second half, not counting a kneel on the final drive of the game, we faced only four 3rd/4th downs and converted three of them (3/4 = 75%).

Only FOUR 3rd/4th down attempts in 35 plays in the 2nd half!!! (Contrast that with 7 3rd/4th down attempts on 35 plays in the 1st half)

Here's the summary table for week 3. 

Here are the details from the game log:

 

[glenwo2]

^^^^

So the only negative play is when he kneeled down to run the clock out.   Nice.

[kungfoodude]

It would be nice to see how our situational 3rd down conversions compare to league averages. 

[KB_fan]

7 hours ago, glenwo2 said:

^^^^

So the only negative play is when he kneeled down to run the clock out.   Nice.

There was a sack on 3rd down in the 1st half too. But yeah, no negative plays on 3rd down in 2nd half when you exclude the kneel.

[KB_fan]

6 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

It would be nice to see how our situational 3rd down conversions compare to league averages. 

I'll see what I can find on this, but it may not be until after the Dallas game. I'm traveling for 4 days later this week.

[glenwo2]

48 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

There was a sack on 3rd down in the 1st half too. But yeah, no negative plays on 3rd down in 2nd half when you exclude the kneel.

Yeah...I was referring more or less to the 2nd half as a whole.

When they lost CMC, they were out-of-sorts and almost everything went wrong.

[KB_fan]

So here's a season-to-date look at Panthers' 3rd/4th down offense:

 

Now here's the breakdown by half.  Our offense was making clutch plays in 1st half vs. Saints & 2nd half vs. Texans, converting 70% or more of 3rd downs, but ALSO, doing a great job of staying out of 3rd down (look at the very very low percent of 3rd/4th down plays in both those halves: 18% First Half vs. Saints, 11% Second Half vs. Texans)

 

 

Here's the breakdown of our offense' 3rd/4th down conversion by Distance: (note: the lines in BLUE are frequency percent.  What % of 3rd downs in a game are short, medium or long?  Look at the figures in bold black for the success rate in converting on 3rd/4th down).

 

Finally, here is the breakdown by type of play (Pass / Rush).  Again, blue is frequency (we pass on 75% of 3rd/4th downs currently).  Black is the success % in converting.

[KB_fan]

Here's the week 3 player by player breakdown of 3rd down attempts.  DJ Moore continues to lead the team in 3rd down conversions.  Sam's 2 successful conversions on 3rd & short (including his 1 yard touchdown run) were huge for the team: