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Barnwell ranks the 5 0-2 teams

kungfoodude

By kungfoodude,
in Carolina Panthers

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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4. Carolina Panthers

The losses: vs. Cleveland, at NY Giants

When Matt Rhule was coaching in college, the third year was the season in which his teams flourished. Temple went 2-10 in his first season, 6-6 in Year 2 and 10-4 in Year 3. Baylor started 1-11, then improved to 7-6 and 11-3 during Rhule's third and final season in Waco, Texas. Panthers fans would have been thrilled with double-digit wins in Rhule's third season, even given that he gets three extra games to work with at the pro level. At the very least, Carolina needed to show significant progress this season.

Through two games, it's difficult to see signs of that progress. The Panthers have lost to the Browns (a team playing out the string while waiting for Deshaun Watson's 11-game suspension to expire) and the Giants (a team using the season to eat its salary-cap vegetables and evaluate Daniel Jones). The losses have come by two and three points, so the Panthers have been competitive, but these are the sorts of teams they need to be beating.

I will admit I'm surprised by Carolina's offensive philosophy. After hiring Ben McAdoo as coordinator, the Panthers are flinging the ball around on early downs like they're the Bills. They actually have the league's highest early-down pass rate in neutral situations this season, ahead of those Bills, Chiefs and various other teams with superstar quarterbacks. The other teams in the top five -- the Chiefs, Ravens, Chargers and Bills -- average 0.33 EPA per dropback when they throw in those situations. The Panthers are generating minus-0.1 EPA per dropback, which is well below league average.

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What this really comes down to is first down. The Panthers have thrown the ball at the league's fifth-highest rate on first down. Quarterback Baker Mayfield hit receiver Robbie Anderson on a blown coverage for a 75-yard touchdown on a first-down pass, which is wonderful. Mayfield's success rate on first-down dropbacks, though, is only 39.3%; quarterbacks leaguewide are successful on 45.1% of their first-down dropbacks. Mayfield ranks 20th in success rate on first down, which is fine but doesn't seem to support such a heavy usage rate.

What makes this even weirder is the Panthers have had a healthy start from running back Christian McCaffrey, who has missed most of the past two seasons because of various injuries. McCaffrey's passing-game routes suggest they either don't want to use him in his old role or don't think it's important. He has been targeted 10 times through two weeks, but one was on a throwaway by Mayfield and the other was starting what ESPN's Scott Van Pelt would call a "pitchy pitchy woo woo" attempt with eight seconds left in regulation against the Browns.

The other eight targets are mostly screens and immediate passes into the flat. The choice routes McCaffrey used to terrify opposing linebackers in space haven't been part of the offense; he has just one catch on an option route all season. That route, coming 4.2 yards downfield, is his longest target of the season. Part of what made him such a valuable player was his ability to stress opposing teams as a receiver outside of the backfield; it's bizarre to see Carolina avoid getting their star in space.

Mayfield is not off to a great start. His completion percentage is 9.5% below what NFL Next Gen Stats would expect from an average quarterback through two weeks, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league amongst starters. His overall success rate as a passer -- 29% -- is the second-worst mark, ahead of only Justin Fields, who has barely been allowed to throw the football. Drops can impact those numbers, but Next Gen Stats has credited the Panthers with only one drop so far.

The Carolina defense has been better in the early going, ranking 12th in DVOA through two weeks, albeit against middling quarterbacks. Only two defenses have hit opposing quarterbacks more frequently through two weeks than Carolina, though that contact has led to only four sacks. The defense has been able to keep games close by surviving in the red zone, where seven opposing drives have yielded only two touchdowns and five field goals.

For this team to start winning games, the defense is going to have to lead the way and force turnovers. The Panthers don't have a single takeaway through two weeks. Cleveland quarterback Jacoby Brissett's one notable skill is avoiding takeaways, so it's not a surprise the Browns protected the football, but it was a bit of a disappointment to see Carolina face Jones without taking home any gifts. Frankie Luvu dropped what should have been a pick-six on the sideline, so at least one significant opportunity was there for the taking.

A Brissett interception was overturned by a pass interference call on CJ Henderson, which has been another woe for Carolina. The Panthers have cost themselves 133 yards with penalties this season, the seventh-worst mark in the league. It's even more damaging for a team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the league. The Panthers don't have the sort of margin for error that comes with being sloppy.

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It's difficult to pin down what the Panthers hope to be good at, let alone where they're actually succeeding in Rhule's third season. They can rush the passer. They've done a good job of punting and covering kicks with Johnny Hekker. They've generally been efficient running the football, as McCaffrey & Co. rank eighth in rushing DVOA.

They've been competitive against middling opponents, but their next five games come against the Saints, Cardinals, 49ers, Rams and Buccaneers, each of whom posted winning records a year ago. Panthers fans were restless at the end of last season. Now, having gotten off to an 0-2 start before what will likely be a leap in terms of opponent quality, I can't imagine they're going to be any more patient.

Rhule is 2-14 in his past 16 games, and one of those wins was against a Cardinals team starting Colt McCoy at quarterback. While Rhule's college teams seemed to get better with each passing year, the Panthers are getting worse. I'm not rooting for Rhule to be fired, and I don't think getting rid of their coach in midseason would materially help them. If Carolina starts 0-4 or 1-5 and falls out of the playoff picture before college basketball season begins, though, it's difficult to imagine him being back with the organization in 2023.

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Chiefzack Collaborator

Chiefzack

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When is someone going to talk about the fact that we have spent 80-90% of our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders (plus literally AN ENTIRE DRAFT YEAR) on our  defense the past few years and the Mcadoo/Mayfield offense has given the defense a chance to win the game for us in the 4th QTR both games and we lost both?

The giants game the offense came out scored a TD after halftime and the defense lied down and died and let the giants get it right back... the offense later gave the defense the lead and the defense gives it right back again. 

If with all the draft capital and FA money we've spent on defense we can't stop Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brissett when our offense gives us the lead in the 4th QTR, there's a problem there.

Our defense is overrated, the offense is playing as they should be. 

 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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24 minutes ago, Chiefzack said:

When is someone going to talk about the fact that we have spent 80-90% of our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders (plus literally AN ENTIRE DRAFT YEAR) on our  defense the past few years and the Mcadoo/Mayfield offense has given the defense a chance to win the game for us in the 4th QTR both games and we lost both?

The giants game the offense came out scored a TD after halftime and the defense lied down and died and let the giants get it right back... the offense later gave the defense the lead and the defense gives it right back again. 

If with all the draft capital and FA money we've spent on defense we can't stop Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brissett when our offense gives us the lead in the 4th QTR, there's a problem there.

Our defense is overrated, the offense is playing as they should be. 

 

The offense is definitely far, far worse than the defense but the stats definitely lie about our D. They are not as good as the numbers. They aren't bad but definitely statistically overrated.

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TrevorLaurenceTime22 Grand Master

TrevorLaurenceTime22

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2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

The offense is definitely far, far worse than the defense but the stats definitely lie about our D. They are not as good as the numbers. They aren't bad but definitely statistically overrated.

Middle of the road no pass rush poor at setting the edge... that said agaist NY the offense and special teams spotted them 6 points in a 3 point loss.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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9 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

The offense is definitely far, far worse than the defense but the stats definitely lie about our D. They are not as good as the numbers. They aren't bad but definitely statistically overrated.

This. The offense is straight trash but the defense isn't nearly as good as it should be considering the resources we've spent on that side of the ball.

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Chiefzack Collaborator

Chiefzack

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1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

The offense is definitely far, far worse than the defense but the stats definitely lie about our D. They are not as good as the numbers. They aren't bad but definitely statistically overrated.

I'm not saying the offense is even good, I'm saying considering we are drafting defensive players at a 3-1 ratio in the early rounds compared to our offense... 

People whine and cry about this staff not making Adjustments and we've had 2 games in a row where our offensive staff has turned a lethargic offense around into coming back from 4th qtr deficits and giving us the lead.

When we spend an entire year of draft picks on offense, we can critique Mcadoo and Mayfield as Rhule, Fitt, and Snow should be for failing to field a defense that can stop bottom 6 QBs in the 4th qtr after using a large chunk of our premium draft picks to have a dominant defense. 

 

There is ZERO excuse for us giving up 4th QTR leads to Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones, I expect mediocrity out of our offense as they've had very little investment into the unit.

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Chiefzack Collaborator

Chiefzack

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Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

This. The offense is straight trash but the defense isn't nearly as good as it should be considering the resources we've spent on that side of the ball.

The second half is what I'm trying to convey, but people haven't been giving the offensive staff enough credit for the halftime adjustments. 

I've watched the huddle cry for years about 3 and outs, our offense came out in the 3rd last week and scored a TD, put the blame where it lies, the defense shouldn't be out of breath the first drive after halftime.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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3 minutes ago, Chiefzack said:

I'm not saying the offense is even good, I'm saying considering we are drafting defensive players at a 3-1 ratio in the early rounds compared to our offense... 

People whine and cry about this staff not making Adjustments and we've had 2 games in a row where our offensive staff has turned a lethargic offense around into coming back from 4th qtr deficits and giving us the lead.

When we spend an entire year of draft picks on offense, we can critique Mcadoo and Mayfield as Rhule, Fitt, and Snow should be for failing to field a defense that can stop bottom 6 QBs in the 4th qtr after using a large chunk of our premium draft picks to have a dominant defense. 

 

There is ZERO excuse for us giving up 4th QTR leads to Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones, I expect mediocrity out of our offense as they've had very little investment into the unit.

True and although the narrative for the past two years is the offense causing the D to eventually get tired.....IDK how much I buy that. 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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4 minutes ago, Chiefzack said:

put the blame where it lies

It lies with Matt Rhule. Tons of roster changes. Tons of staff changes. Two different GMs on paper. Same fuging trash.

It's not just the offense. It's not just the defense. It's not just the players. It's not just the coordinators and position coaches. It's Matt Rhule.

 

 

 

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