A Quantitative Analysis of the Panthers-Bears Trade

[TheSpecialJuan]

Excellent post 

[SmokinwithWilly]

3 hours ago, Icege said:

Mathematically, the trade is incredibly fair. The onus now is on the scouting process to put the team in the best position to hit on #1.  Landing a franchise QB alone makes the picks worth it. If they can also hit on finding a replacement for DJ then the team only improved from this.

This team is a playoff team with Bryce Young or CJ Stroud and the current coaching staff. They were almost there with Wilks and the shell of Rhule's regime and Sam Darnold. A postseason for the rookie QB makes that future 1st a non-issue imo, as well as the future 2nd should they ball out that year as well.

Going to be interesting seeing a team eager to win now. It's been awhile... incoming back-to-back winning seasons finally?

They really weren't close to a playoff caliber team. Getting in with a losing record and actually being able to be competitive are very different. 

That said, with the right QB I think we are much closer. Maybe by the end of year 2 we have the ability to make a serious run. But man I think we're close. 

[FugginPoo]

Spoiler alert:  if Stroud/Young turn into elite QB for next 10 years then panthers won by miles and it’s not even close.  However if they bust this was an awful trade and the Bears won it big.  The end.

Edited March 11, 2023 by FugginPoo

[ForJimmy]

[Evil Hurney]

Nice post.

I also feel like the Panthers got off fairly cheaply in this deal. Quick math (assuming all picks are this year) suggests that the Bears valued DJ Moore as a mid 1st round pick. There were many over the past months that would have happily traded DJ for a mid 1st.

Bears & Carolina Trade (treating future picks as end of the round picks)

 

For context I assume Chicago got similar excess value as MIA got from SF in 2021. Calculation assuming future picks are treated as end or round picks this year below.

EDIT: I think it's also relevant that AJ Brown without a new contract was traded last season for pick 18 and pick 101 ... pretty close to the value the Panthers just got for DJ Moore.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Evil Hurney

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, FugginPoo said:

Spoiler alert:  if Stroud/Young turn into elite QB for next 10 years then panthers won by miles and it’s not even close.  However if they bust this was an awful trade and the Bears won it big.  The end.

Well, if the Panthers' pick goes on to outperform Fields, then the Bears will regret this move for decades--they had the option of trading Fields, and chose not to do so.  On top of that, the Bears could select a few busts with their windfall of picks....