Albert Breer's insights on the Panthers and other Top 10 teams

[Mr. Scot]

From the latest edition of the MMQB (Link)

Here’s a look...at some buzz from around the NFL on where the teams with the highest picks are looking with the clock ticking down on draft season.

• I don’t know whether the Panthers have made a final decision on which quarterback they’ll take with the first pick. I believe if they had to make that pick today, it would be Alabama QB Bryce Young—and breadcrumbs, at this point, are all over the trail Carolina has traveled.

While the Panthers did travel deep to the quarterback pro days, owners David and Nicole Tepper were on the ground for only the throwing sessions of Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. Previous obligations kept them from seeing Will Levis throw live at Kentucky (they did make it to dinner with Levis the night before) or getting to Anthony Richardson’s pro day at Florida, which was right after the owners’ meetings. So read into that what you will.

Also, the Teppers, I’m told, spent a good amount of time with Young’s parents at the Alabama pro day, and my understanding is Young has acquitted himself incredibly well in his meetings with Panthers coach Frank Reich.

And then, there’s this one last puzzle piece: Young did really well on the S2 test, a cognitive assessment to measure processing speed that some teams put a lot of stock in when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks. (Joe Burrow and Justin Fields were high scorers on the test in recent years.) Close to half the NFL’s 32 teams subscribe to the test, the Panthers being one of them. Tepper is also said to be a believer in it.

Again, it’s not over yet. The Panthers will have the quarterbacks in for 30 visits this week, as well as into the beginning of next, to tie up every last loose end with each of them. But I think Young’s in good shape to go first.

• It’s tough to get a real read on what the Texans are doing at No. 2, but I’m less convinced it’ll be a quarterback than I was a month ago. If Young were to fall to them, then, yeah, I think Houston will take him. If not? It’s probably a little murkier.

The evidence I have comes down to Houston’s effort to go up to No. 1—at one point, the Texans and Bears were closing in on a deal that’d have the teams flipping spots, with Chicago then doing a deal with Carolina to drop from No. 2 to 9. Houston got a little uncomfortable with it in the end, and the Bears moved forward in doing their deal with the Panthers.

What can we take from that? Well, Houston’s willingness to go up to first tells us there’s a quarterback it likes enough to take there (otherwise, there’d be no reason to go up). But what if the Texans had only one quarterback they saw as worthy of a top-two pick? Add that to the fact that Houston GM Nick Caserio and coach DeMeco Ryans weren’t traveling all over kingdom come to quarterback pro days, and there’s definitely some mystery here.

If it’s not a quarterback, I’d expect Caserio to try to trade down. I still think it’ll wind up being one (likely Stroud, in particular), especially with ownership a little more involved this year. But I’m not 100% sure of it.

• It’s no secret that the Cardinals have put the third pick on the block. And I think if they have trouble moving it, it’ll be because (a) quarterbacks went 1–2, and (b) the league is very split on the quarterbacks after Young and Stroud. If Stroud or Young were to fall to them, then they’d get a haul from someone looking to leapfrog the Colts into the top three.

If not, and they get stuck, my guess would be that new GM Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon will look to park that pick right on the middle of the fairway. And Alabama pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. is that kind of safe pick to build a new program around.

So I’d guess this will be either Anderson or someone coming up for a quarterback.

• The Colts’ investment in identifying their quarterback of the future, finally, nearly four years after Andrew Luck’s retirement, has been heavy. They held private workouts with Stroud and Young in California last Monday, BYU’s Jaren Hall in Utah on Tuesday, Richardson in Gainesville on Wednesday and Levis in Lexington on Thursday. They’ve already done a 30 visit with Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker (who’s recovering from a torn ACL and can’t work out for anyone yet) and will have the rest in on visits over the next 10 days.

That said, whether the Colts are completely locked in on taking a quarterback at No. 4 is harder to get a read on, even if it felt like a fait accompli a couple of months ago. And the reason why, again, for me, comes down to their interest in trading for the first pick—they didn’t have a ton, telling the Bears they just weren’t there yet with the quarterbacks, where they’d be comfortable taking a big swing and going up in the draft order to get one.

GM Chris Ballard is methodical, so it’s also certainly possible that he looked at the four quarterbacks, didn’t see a huge gap in mid-March, and was O.K. passing. Or maybe he looked at Lamar Jackson as a real postdraft option if he wasn’t comfortable with who was there. Either way, I know Ballard won’t be afraid to take on a player—at any position, really—who’s got traits and needs development (he was part of the Patrick Mahomes evaluation in Kansas City, remember), so someone like Levis shouldn’t ruled out if Young and Stroud are gone at fourth.

• At No. 5, we know two things: The Seahawks have done all the outward work that a team would do before it takes a quarterback, and GM John Schneider is always open for business when it comes to trading down. And if the Seahawks stick, there are a number of high-end havoc wreakers who could fall in their lap. Maybe Anderson, maybe Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson or, intriguingly, Georgia’s Jalen Carter.

To me, that might be the most interesting thing about this spot the Seahawks are in. Carter would make a ton of football sense for Pete Carroll. Also, Carroll and Seattle have been willing to roll the dice on character risks in the past. Is it too much to do it with a commodity like the fifth pick? I can’t wait to find out.

• Both the Lions and Raiders, sitting at Nos. 6 and 7, could take a quarterback. And the Raiders did make a late run at moving up to the first pick, just before Chicago moved it to Carolina. And really, this turn, with these two teams, could be where the QBs start to tumble. There’s a wide variance in opinions on Levis. After talking to teams the last few weeks, it seems like Richardson could slide further. So having four teams in a row that could take a QB, from picks 4 to 7, passing on either or both, could be an indicator of a long night for one or both of them.

[stan786]

At what point in the process do we begin to believe the reports? Next Week?

[Mr. Scot]

3 minutes ago, stan786 said:

At what point in the process do we begin to believe the reports? Next Week?

If it's Albert Breer, that point is today. He's been very reliable on these things.

Now can you still argue that what's being put out is a smokescreen, yes you could. Draft season is still lying season.

Also worth remembering that Breer starts off by saying the decision isn't final yet.

Edited April 10, 2023 by Mr. Scot

[XClown1986]

9 minutes ago, stan786 said:

At what point in the process do we begin to believe the reports? Next Week?

It seems like every year we start really hearing about who the Panthers want a couple of weeks or maybe a month beforehand, and it turns out to be the guy we take or the guy we wanted but was picked before us. I remember this happening in regards to Jon Beason, Jonathan Stewart, Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin, Shaq Thompson, Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Jaycee Horn, CJ Henderson (got overruled, but the interest was real enough to trade for him later), Ickey was the gem for them last year and they were so stunned to see him available. It just doesn't seem like there has been a lot of real "smokescreens." Usually the intel that leaks is pretty reliable. This usually leads to the fan base interpreting the leak as fact or fiction, usually based on whether or not the fan likes the guy that gains steam. If they do: "it's happening!" if they don't: "smokescreen to trick other teams. Totally."

I remember being baffled by Jonathan Stewart after drafting Deangelo and dismissed it as absurd, but it was legit. I remember thinking the Cam Newton steam seemed inflated and really remember being pissed it was real (I was wrong guys, I admit it. Cam was a great pick). But history shows, the name that seems to become associated with the team more and more, ends up being the guy. Draft pundits have pretty much nailed our picks in recent years. 

Edited April 10, 2023 by XClown1986

[SOJA]

can't remember who but someone on this website tried to argue with me the Texans don't want Bryce. 

Why would the Texans trade to 1 if they were happy w/ two dudes. They want Bryce

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, XClown1986 said:

It seems like every year we start really hearing about who the Panthers want a couple of weeks or maybe a month beforehand, and it turns out to be the guy we take or the guy we wanted but was picked before us.

Probably not happening this year...

Probably

[SOJA]

I still maintain the Panthers really like both Stroud and Young and are really trying to get the Texans to trade up one spot. 

My evidence is the fug ton of reports coming out that we like Young AND the new reports that "Houston may be ok passing on a QB"

They're both trying to smokescreen each other. 

I'm fine with either Stroud or Young personally, though I give a slight edge to Stroud. But you can bet your ass if Houston offered me #33 overall or their first next year I'd be more than happy to take their sloppy seconds at 2

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, SOJA said:

can't remember who but someone on this website tried to argue with me the Texans don't want Bryce. 

Why would the Texans trade to 1 if they were happy w/ two dudes. They want Bryce

From the article...

It’s tough to get a real read on what the Texans are doing at No. 2, but I’m less convinced it’ll be a quarterback than I was a month ago. If Young were to fall to them, then, yeah, I think Houston will take him. If not? It’s probably a little murkier.

[TheSpecialJuan]

 

[SOJA]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

From the article...

It’s tough to get a real read on what the Texans are doing at No. 2, but I’m less convinced it’ll be a quarterback than I was a month ago. If Young were to fall to them, then, yeah, I think Houston will take him. If not? It’s probably a little murkier.

Also from the article the whole bit about them trying to trade up to 1

LMAO

[rayzor]

i think the texans probably have it narrowed down to 1 QB they will do anything for and if they can't get him, they'll go another direction.

texans have a defensive minded coach so it shouldn't be a surprise that fixing the offense won't be as crucial in his mind as it would offensive coaches.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, SOJA said:

I still maintain the Panthers really like both Stroud and Young and are really trying to get the Texans to trade up one spot. 

I think they're happy staying at #1.

BUT...

If the Texans made a good offer, I believe they'd take it.

[Jaxel]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

I think they're happy staying at #1.

BUT...

If the Texans made a good offer, I believe they'd take it.

I agree, I think it would at minimum take a future 1 however.

[SOJA]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

I think they're happy staying at #1.

BUT...

If the Texans made a good offer, I believe they'd take it.

that's exactly my point. They want to recoup some assets. Hence the ton of reports that we love Young. We're trying to get Houston to trade up. 

Meanwhile Houston is now playing the "actually not sure if we want a QB" card when we all fuging know they want a QB bad, their team was fuging awful last year