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Training Camp for 7/29/2024


Icege
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26 minutes ago, PappyMay said:

Sign me up for 20yard passes all day. I’m just trying to see those chains move.  If we can hit 1 of those a quarter this year it will be a vast improvement to what we saw last. 

According to this that would roughly triple his average from last year. Interesting to click around on the leaders of 10/20/30/40/50+ yard passes last year. Over 20, Bryce had 10 at 30y, 4 at 40y in 16 games. Dalton had 1 at 30y and 1 at 40y in 1 game. Neither had a 50+

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

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6 minutes ago, Jackie Lee said:

According to this that would roughly triple his average from last year. Interesting to click around on the leaders of 10/20/30/40/50+ yard passes last year. Over 20, Bryce had 10 at 30y, 4 at 40y in 16 games. Dalton had 1 at 30y and 1 at 40y in 1 game. Neither had a 50+

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

You need to look at air time. Dalton’s 40 yarder had a good bit of YAC. It was an open pass and the WR ran 10 plus yards afterwards.  Not sure about the other ones mentioned. A check down can become a 40 yarder with enough YAC. 

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1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

You need to look at air time. Dalton’s 40 yarder had a good bit of YAC. It was an open pass and the WR ran 10 plus yards afterwards.  Not sure about the other ones mentioned. A check down can become a 40 yarder with enough YAC. 

Yeah it has air yards in their cumulative for the season and Bryce was at 1778 on the season. Most of the other guys that played 16/17 games were in the mid 2k's. Minshew was at 1902, Brock at 2439 for reference. I'll leave off CJ because that's not gonna go over well lol 

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6 hours ago, pantherclaw said:

"Beginning in 2006, the NFL classified every pass attempt as either 'short' or 'deep,' where deep means anything past 15 yards." 

https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/09/deep-vs-short-passes.html?m=1

I'm really not interested in a fan's perspective on what they consider a deep pass. For the record. 

You are injecting this because it suits your narrative and fanhood IMO. Because it is really just some stat keeping crap. 

Does ANYONE think DCs are looking at a 15 yard pass as a deep throw? Maybe with us in 2023 but the real world? I just completely disagree. And don’t care what bullshit people use to justify it. Okay? 

Deep is over the top. Attempting to get behind the defense. A fuging 15 yard pass does poo to stretch a defense. Maybe it stresses them but it does not stretch them. 

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3 minutes ago, strato said:

You are injecting this because it suits your narrative and fanhood IMO. Because it is really just some stat keeping crap. 

Does ANYONE think DCs are looking at a 15 pass as a deep throw? Maybe with us in 2023 but the real world? I just completely disagree. And don’t care what bullshit people use to justify it. Okay? 

Deep is over the top. Attempting to get behind the defense. A fuging 15 yard pass does poo to stretch a defense. Maybe it stresses them but it does not stretch them. 

A deep throw is keeping the defense honest.  15 yards aint doing poo

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50 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

A deep throw is keeping the defense honest.  15 yards aint doing poo

Yeah, I don't care what some fancy analytics say, we've all watched football long enough to know what justifies as a "deep throw". People need to start believing their eyes over analytics. Even in the underwear olympics (Pro Day) with NOBODY guarding his WRs, Bryce's deep throws looked weak and took forever to get there, and it was no different in real time. We got sold on a super processor and got a lemon. 

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10 minutes ago, Castavar said:

Yeah, I don't care what some fancy analytics say, we've all watched football long enough to know what justifies as a "deep throw". People need to start believing their eyes over analytics. Even in the underwear olympics (Pro Day) with NOBODY guarding his WRs, Bryce's deep throws looked weak and took forever to get there, and it was no different in real time. We got sold on a super processor and got a lemon. 

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-top-10-nfl-deep-passers-of-2022-geno-smith-tua-tagovailoa-excel-a

Like it or not, the NFL considers deep passes to be it to be 20 air yards. 

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2 minutes ago, csx said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-top-10-nfl-deep-passers-of-2022-geno-smith-tua-tagovailoa-excel-a

Like it or not, the NFL considers deep passes to be it to be 20 air yards. 

Yeah I don’t see many safeties constantly playing 20 plus yards away from the LOS. If you hit a 25 yard pass it’s typically behind the defense unless they are in prevent or something different. 20 plus yards in the air pass the LOS is a deep pass and not as easy as people think on here. People are forgetting YAC is included in a lot of these passes. So when a QB hits a 40 yard pass, more times than not it’s including YAC to get there. 

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5 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Yeah I don’t see many safeties constantly playing 20 plus yards away from the LOS. If you hit a 25 yard pass it’s typically behind the defense unless they are in prevent or something different. 20 plus yards in the air pass the LOS is a deep pass and not as easy as people think on here. People are forgetting YAC is included in a lot of these passes. So when a QB hits a 40 yard pass, more times than not it’s including YAC to get there. 

And I am not suggesting Young is or will be a good deep passer. I just don't get to redifine things base on what I want.

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    • Exactly what I was going to say. Brady seems to be taking a page out of Olsen's playbook, which is probably a good thing. They'll probably get around to giving Brady an Emmy one day, and he should thank Olsen for giving him the blueprint for success.
    • In before: "XL sucks, there is no hope." "As long as we have Bryce, none of this matters." My response: "It's X, not XL...we're not discussing apparel sizes, or we'd have to consider XS."  
    • Alain Pierre provides some food for thought on Last Word On Sports regarding Xavier Legette, and his article, though specifically on X, kind of puts me in the mind of QBs being overdrafted and put into situations that they're not prepared for, some ultimately failing due to drafting missteps by front offices who don't necessarily view prospective players within the contextual importance that situations demand.  At this point, Legette looks like a failure in reference to expectations, of not only what a consistently productive NFL receiver looks like, but a first round pick (which he obviously should never have been). But the story on X isn't necessarily completely over. Damn. I seem to be experiencing deja vu...It wasn't X's fault that he was overdrafted, that was a choice by an FO that obviously downplayed actual realized skill vs outstanding measurables and upside. Sure, the FO was impressed by X's one-year feats during his senior season at South Carolina, but it was the NFL god, RAS (a.k.a. Raw Athletic Score), that had Dave Canales's and Dan Morgan's jaws dropping in amazement at the sight of X running around in underwear at the Combine...   "At 6-foot-3 and over 220 pounds, Legette brought rare athletic upside to the position. His breakout season at South Carolina showed flashes of dominance that NFL teams dream of. Projecting forward, many scouts compared his physical profile to D.K. Metcalf, and the Panthers clearly believed they could develop him into a true wide receiver 1 over time. The issue was never his talent. The issue was the timeline. Just a few picks later, the Chargers selected Ladd McConkey, a receiver who may have lacked Xavier Legette’s physical ceiling but entered the league far more technically refined. McConkey immediately showed advanced route discipline, leverage awareness, good pacing, and separation ability.  Bryce Young’s game has always depended on timing and anticipation. His best football at Alabama came with receivers capable of winning through precision rather than pure athleticism. Jameson Williams and John Metchie III were excellent route runners and were able to get drafted in 2022. McConkey naturally fit that style of play. Legette, meanwhile, needed significant development in the exact areas where Bryce Young needed help. The Panthers drafted traits when Bryce Young needed reliability."   Yes, the FO was guilty. The good thing is that the execs appear to be improving. Some of that may be attributed to the hiring of Eric Eager (who was hired right after the Xavier Legette draft). Eager seems to have helped the Panthers FO fine-tune their analytical progress, and, at least on paper, they acquired players with a lot of value during the last draft in regards to actually (what I'll refer to as) "underdrafting" talent relative to their position with value already built in.  Look at Chris Brazzell: He may be more of the quintessential project receiver who was arguably more or less just as raw as Legette was when he was drafted, and with a relatively high RAS as well. The notable difference is value, as Brazzell was a round three pick and Legette was a first rounder.    "Unlike the Xavier Legette situation, Carolina’s environment for Brazzell is completely different. "The Panthers are not asking a raw receiver prospect to stabilize this offense for Bryce Young. "Brazzell enters a much healthier developmental situation with far less pressure. With Tetairoa McMillan established as the primary target and Jalen Coker continuing to settle as the number 2 option...Xavier Legette, Metchie III, and Jimmy Horn Jr. are also still in this rotation, fighting for reps. "It gives Carolina something they failed to give Legette when they drafted him: A developmental runway. "Xavier Legette entered the league with expectations attached to a first-round pick and an offense desperate for answers. Brazzell enters a room where he can spend a year working on his route running, learning the playbook, and earning snaps gradually rather than being asked to become part of Bryce Young’s solution immediately. "And truthfully, Brazzell needs that time coming out of college. Despite his elite physical tools, many evaluators have several concerns about his overall polish as a receiver. "His route tree at Tennessee was viewed as fairly limited due to the type of offense that they run. 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Sometimes they do. More often, they are betting on a development path that may take years to complete. "The challenge is understanding what your offense needs right now. "If a team has patience, stability, and a quarterback capable of carrying the offense while a receiver develops, betting on traits can make sense. But if a young quarterback needs immediate help, there is a strong argument for prioritizing the receiver who already knows how to separate, create throwing , and earn trust from day one. "That’s why the Xavier Legette-Ladd McConkey debate remains so fascinating. "It was never really a discussion about talent. It was a discussion about timing."   For me, Ladd McConkey was talented enough in his own right, that the gap--the upside--was never as big as people are suggesting between not only McConkey and Legette, but McConkey and other receivers drafted in the first round during that draft. 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