A Tankathon Approach to the remaining Schedule

[SmokinwithWilly]

20 minutes ago, jb2288 said:

I’m going back to Horn because, again, my point is there is no point losing sleep over us picking 7 vs 4. We are the Panthers, we have the same chance to make a good or bad pick at both. We don’t evaluate well. 

Good pick. What's that. 

[tukafan21]

27 minutes ago, jb2288 said:

I’m going back to Horn because, again, my point is there is no point losing sleep over us picking 7 vs 4. We are the Panthers, we have the same chance to make a good or bad pick at both. We don’t evaluate well. 

I'm sorry, but this is just absolute utter nonsense

In general, the higher you pick, the better chance you have at not screwing up the pick.

But your final point about not evaluating well means that's even more true.  If you don't evaluate well, the lower you pick, the better chance you have at screwing it up because the more elite players are already off the board.

So basically because you don't trust us to draft well, you'd rather win meaningless late season games in a lost season and make it tougher on us to hit on our next draft pick at the same time.

That's how poo franchises continue to be poo.  Win meaningless games that cost you a chance at true impact players and then draft questionable prospects who might not pan out and compound the issue.

"hey guys, we suck at evaluating and drafting, so let's make it harder on us next year by drafting later so we can celebrate a pointless win that we'll forget about in a few days"

make it make sense

Edited December 29, 2024 by tukafan21

[WhoKnows]

38 minutes ago, WarPanthers89 said:

All 8 of those day 3 picks should be OL and DL, maybe a RB since Brooks is likely out all year. There were several day 3 RBs in this draft who look like starters or great compliments. The rest of the picks should be all on the line. We need depth on both lines and it would be nice to get a diamond in the rough as well. Seems like historically there are quality starters on OL/DL on day 3, especially interior guys.

[Bear Hands]

1 is going to be hard to lose for NE. TEN now on track to 2 playing HOU. 3 CLE who lose the tiebreaker to NYG. 

Realistically, we’re looking at 5-7. Tmac, Graham, Johnson and the LTs are very much still in play. Maybe even Starks.  

[WhoKnows]

12 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

I'm sorry, but this is just absolute utter nonsense

In general, the higher you pick, the better chance you have at not screwing up the pick.

But your final point about not evaluating well means that's even more true.  If you don't evaluate well, the lower you pick, the better chance you have at screwing it up because the more elite players are already off the board.

So basically because you don't trust us to draft well, you'd rather win meaningless late season games in a lost season and make it tougher on us to hit on our next draft pick at the same time.

That's how poo franchises continue to be poo.  Win meaningless games that cost you a chance at true impact players and then draft questionable prospects who might not pan out and compound the issue.

"hey guys, we suck at evaluating and drafting, so let's make it harder on us next year by drafting later so we can celebrate a pointless win that we'll forget about in a few days"

make it make sense

It’s part of the reason Marty was well liked. Kuechly, Gross, Peppers and Cam went 9, 8, 2 and 1. It’s a lot easier to hit on early picks. He also went RB/LB a lot later in the 1st which typically are where the best guys at those positions go.

We missed out on guys like Herbert and Chase, Sewell or 3 1sts in a trade up because of one extra win in 2019 and 2020. Firing Rhule early cost us a ton of picks to get Young. We are the shining example of why you should tank and the benefits. We clearly decided winning last week was it and it really could hurt. There are a bunch of teams in the top 7-8 that need a QB bad. We could have wrangled an early 2nd or next year’s 1st in a trade up and still gotten the same guy we’ll draft at 7. 

[tukafan21]

6 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

1 is going to be hard to lose for NE. TEN now on track to 2 playing HOU. 3 CLE who lose the tiebreaker to NYG. 

Realistically, we’re looking at 5-7. Tmac, Graham, Johnson and the LTs are very much still in play. Maybe even Starks.  

I actually think there is a better chance NE wins next week than lose.

The Bills are locked into the 2 seed, having absolutely nothing to play for, while the Patriots coaches are coaching for their jobs and so are a lot of players.  

I think NE wins next week unless the literally purposefully don't try to win and actually call plays that aren't designed to put up points, as I think the Bills will be resting anyone of significance.

[WhoKnows]

1 minute ago, Bear Hands said:

1 is going to be hard to lose for NE. TEN now on track to 2 playing HOU. 3 CLE who lose the tiebreaker to NYG. 

Realistically, we’re looking at 5-7. Tmac, Graham, Johnson and the LTs are very much still in play. Maybe even Starks.  

It’ll be interesting. Giants play Philly who’s locked into 2 seed. NE plays Buffalo who’s locked into 2 seed. Tennessee plays Houston who’s locked into 4 seed and just lost Tank Dell. Browns play the Ravens who are locked into 3 seed. All 4 opponents have nothing to play for next week and do not have a bye week. Still hurts to beat Arizona but there are opportunities to pass several teams. Throw in the SOS changes for the Jets and Jax playing Indy now that they are out of the playoffs. Jets also play Miami who god willing will be out after the Browns beat them today. Worst case, Miami winning today and next week pushes the Jets SOS up enough.

We’ll have a lot of games to watch next week.

[jb2288]

31 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

I'm sorry, but this is just absolute utter nonsense

In general, the higher you pick, the better chance you have at not screwing up the pick.

But your final point about not evaluating well means that's even more true.  If you don't evaluate well, the lower you pick, the better chance you have at screwing it up because the more elite players are already off the board.

So basically because you don't trust us to draft well, you'd rather win meaningless late season games in a lost season and make it tougher on us to hit on our next draft pick at the same time.

That's how poo franchises continue to be poo.  Win meaningless games that cost you a chance at true impact players and then draft questionable prospects who might not pan out and compound the issue.

"hey guys, we suck at evaluating and drafting, so let's make it harder on us next year by drafting later so we can celebrate a pointless win that we'll forget about in a few days"

make it make sense

Hey you are entitled to your opinion. You're severely twisting what I'm saying however. I don't think any wins are meaningless so you can throw that out. The locker room culture in winning for a young team is huge. Disagree with that if you want, but I don't think it's meaningless to those guys.

 

It's hyperbole to say something like "draft questionable prospects who might not pan out" when we are talking bout pick 4 for 7, and you know it. I would say the odds of us getting a plus starter at 4 vs 7 are damn near the exact same. The exception to this is QB which carry a ridiculous premium, which were obviously not in the market for this year. 

 

The call back to the Horn draft was after that pick went Surtain, Slater, Parsons, Devontae smith. Its just a fun cherry picked stat for a message board

[tukafan21]

4 minutes ago, jb2288 said:

Hey you are entitled to your opinion. You're severely twisting what I'm saying however. I don't think any wins are meaningless so you can throw that out. The locker room culture in winning for a young team is huge. Disagree with that if you want, but I don't think it's meaningless to those guys.

 

It's hyperbole to say something like "draft questionable prospects who might not pan out" when we are talking bout pick 4 for 7, and you know it. I would say the odds of us getting a plus starter at 4 vs 7 are damn near the exact same. The exception to this is QB which carry a ridiculous premium, which were obviously not in the market for this year. 

 

The call back to the Horn draft was after that pick went Surtain, Slater, Parsons, Devontae smith. Its just a fun cherry picked stat for a message board

We went to OT against a team that was still alive in the playoff hunt.

Winning or losing that game at that point would have zero affect on the culture that is being built right now, just being competitive and taking it to OT accomplished that job.  Case and point, we won that game and then just got blown the F out this week.  If we couldn't use that to build upon this week, do you really think it's going to have even the smallest affect on the team moving forward into next season?

It's why I've said there is a HUGE difference between tanking and losing after a closely battled game.  Showing the fight and losing a close OT game would have done the same thing for the culture but not hurt out draft position and ability to trade back with a QB needy team.

And no, I don't think it's hyperbole when you're talking about 3 picks later at that point in the draft.  If you're talking about 17 to 20, then yea, it's probably the same thing.  But not in the Top 5ish of the draft, that's where every draft slot can have massive ramifications down the line.

Just because great players were drafted after our pick doesn't mean us picking higher wouldn't have given us a better chance at hitting big on a pick.  Going back and looking at the other players drafted later is the cherry picking, because the fact remains that the higher you pick, the better chance you have at getting a difference maker and there is no logical way to say it's not true.

Edited December 29, 2024 by tukafan21

[Bear Hands]

25 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

I actually think there is a better chance NE wins next week than lose.

The Bills are locked into the 2 seed, having absolutely nothing to play for, while the Patriots coaches are coaching for their jobs and so are a lot of players.  

I think NE wins next week unless the literally purposefully don't try to win and actually call plays that aren't designed to put up points, as I think the Bills will be resting anyone of significance.

I think the Bills backups could still roll NE lol.

 

[flagfootballcoach28]

So glad we beat the AZ Cards! That really helped this franchise.. 

Edited December 30, 2024 by flagfootballcoach28

[Bear Hands]

General thing to consider for the tanking teams playing resting playoff locks:

The backups want to look good/boost their stock/potential new/FA contracts.  The sh*tty teams are still sh*t and want the high picks.    

This is why I see most bad teams still losing next week.  We're probably at 5 or 6.  

[MHS831]

56 minutes ago, WhoKnows said:

It’ll be interesting. Giants play Philly who’s locked into 2 seed. NE plays Buffalo who’s locked into 2 seed. Tennessee plays Houston who’s locked into 4 seed and just lost Tank Dell. Browns play the Ravens who are locked into 3 seed. All 4 opponents have nothing to play for next week and do not have a bye week.

We’ll have a lot of games to watch next week.

Good summary

[tukafan21]

3 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

General thing to consider for the tanking teams playing resting playoff locks:

The backups want to look good/boost their stock/potential new/FA contracts.  The sh*tty teams are still sh*t and want the high picks.    

This is why I see most bad teams still losing next week.  We're probably at 5 or 6.  

In theory this makes sense, but not in reality.

Because the reality is that the players and coaches on those bad teams are also playing for either their current jobs or auditioning for new ones the next year as well.  So when both sides are really auditioning for next year, advantage goes to the bad starters who are still better players than the backups.

Ownership and front office members who know they will be back the next year are the only ones who want them to lose for the draft positioning.  So unless they go to the coaches and say, "your jobs are safe for next year, so please try to lose this game to help yourself with a better draft pick" then the bad teams are usually in a better spot to win those type of games.

Edited December 30, 2024 by tukafan21