Josh Norris: Panthers-Garrett Wilson trade options

[jfra78]

7 minutes ago, Wood228 said:

Well duh dude..... My point was that we didnt need to add weapons. We needed the help up front. Imagine if Cam ever had a decent O-line.

You can't compare a team led by Cam with a team led by Bryce.  Bryce gets the ball to the weapons and Cam is the weapon, plus OL was our strength last year

[TheSpecialJuan]

3 hours ago, CRA said:

3 seasons, 3 straight 1000+ seasons. You might not get a top 10 for him but he is easily worth a first round pick. 

Garrett Wilson is a much better WR than any wideout in this draft class. 

[Waldo]

43 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

On the flip side he is a proven #1 WR with 1 year left on rookie deal and a 5th year option.  He is only 24 and if you are going to spend the money why not on a young guy who can give 6-8 years

Depends. Are we talking a contender with that need or a team picking in the top 10 consistently? Because he is still a WR so that helps very little with the bigger issues the Panthers are facing which also includes a general lack of talent especially on the other side of the ball and cap space.

Also he isn't getting traded for 1 pick if he is a true #1 at 24. So how many picks and how do they fill out the roster with out the picks or any cap space? I don't have issues with trades but I'm not interested in seeing them draft a WR early let alone trade for one. Hell I wish they would have done that before trading up for XL.

 

 

 

[tukafan21]

49 minutes ago, TheSpecialJuan said:

Garrett Wilson is a much better WR than any wideout in this draft class. 

Wrong

He might be better than T-Mac as of Week 1 of this year as it's a 4th year #1 WR vs a rookie, but within a year or so, T-Mac >> Wilson, no doubt in my mind about that.

There is only 1 instance I'd be okay trading #8 for Wilson, and that's if T-Mac is drafted before we're on the clock.  As if we make that trade and T-Mac falls to 8 (or 7 since the Jets would have both those picks), the Jets would take him and in a couple years we'll just look back on that in anger as they'll have the better WR than we will, and they'll have had him on his rookie deal while we'll have given Wilson a huge extension.

Edited February 5 by tukafan21

[jfra78]

38 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Wrong

He might be better than T-Mac as of Week 1 of this year as it's a 4th year #1 WR vs a rookie, but within a year or so, T-Mac >> Wilson, no doubt in my mind about that.

There is only 1 instance I'd be okay trading #8 for Wilson, and that's if T-Mac is drafted before we're on the clock.  As if we make that trade and T-Mac falls to 8 (or 7 since the Jets would have both those picks), the Jets would take him and in a couple years we'll just look back on that in anger as they'll have the better WR than we will, and they'll have had him on his rookie deal while we'll have given Wilson a huge extension.

Your love for Tmac is clouding your judgment.

[tukafan21]

14 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Your love for Tmac is clouding your judgment.

No it's not, Wilson is a great WR, but he's not a true Top 5 potential type of elite WR like some on here seem to think.  

Yes, he has over 1k in each of his 3 seasons, but he also hasn't missed any games and has only just barely cracked the number in each season, the most yards he's had is 1,104, which is only a 65 yard per game average.  He has a total of 9 games of 100 yards or more, out of 51 games, with only 1 of those games being over 115 yards.  He's also not really that much of a redzone threat because of his size, and he only has 14 TDs over his 3 seasons.

In his 3 seasons he's been 13th, 14th, and 22nd in the league in receiving yards, and again, that's without missing any games, he falls further down the list if you go by yards per game.  Great WR, a #1 WR, no doubt about it, but he's more of a 12-15ish best WR in the league than a true Top 10 guy.

Just T-Mac's red zone ability alone will make him a better WR weapon to have in this league than Wilson, as he's going to be a 10 or more TD type of guy per season.

If the team who has had him in their building for 3 years would trade him and then take T-Mac (assuming he's still there), wouldn't that alone tell you that the Jets think higher of T-Mac than Wilson?

Edited February 5 by tukafan21

[TheSpecialJuan]

We would essentially be selecting Garrett Wilson (a 3x 1k yards and proven big time WR) at #8 and Jets would throw in their 4th rounder this year. Wilson would be under control for 2 years ('26 would be his 5th year option) I might just do it 

Edited February 5 by TheSpecialJuan

[tukafan21]

Just now, TheSpecialJuan said:

We would essentially be selecting Garrett Wilson (a 3x 1k yards and proven big time WR) at #8 and Jets would throw in their 4th rounder this year. Wilson would be under control for 2 years (next year would be his 5th year option) I might just do it 

Or, you take a player with a much higher ceiling than Wilson, while having them on a rookie contract control for 5 years.

Again, I'm not against trading the 8th pick for Wilson, but under no circumstances can that trade be made before knowing if T-Mac is there when on the clock.  If he gets drafted before 7 when the Jets are on the clock, then sure, go ahead and make the trade.  But if he's there at 7 and they haven't traded Wilson, they're not taking T-Mac, so just sit pat and take the player with the higher upside and longer rookie contract control.

[Soul Rebel]

Wilson > Tet or any WR in this draft class now and more than likely in the future. Wilson is about to hit that level-up year that we've seen good WRs elevate to great WRs. 

GW will be a top-8 WR in the league and I'd give up #8 for his skillset alongside 17 & 18. Zero risk vs. some risk with whoever we draft at 8. Complete the offense with a true #1 for Bryce.

Fix the defense in FA and move up in R2. We would have three 4th rounders to move around and/or add depth. 

[tukafan21]

42 minutes ago, Soul Rebel said:

Wilson > Tet or any WR in this draft class now and more than likely in the future. Wilson is about to hit that level-up year that we've seen good WRs elevate to great WRs. 

GW will be a top-8 WR in the league and I'd give up #8 for his skillset alongside 17 & 18. Zero risk vs. some risk with whoever we draft at 8. Complete the offense with a true #1 for Bryce.

Fix the defense in FA and move up in R2. We would have three 4th rounders to move around and/or add depth. 

So you're openly admitting that after 3 years in the league, Wilson still isn't "great" but at the same time think he's going to be a Top 8 WR in the league when he's averaged 65 yards per game in his career?

There is more proof that Wilson will turn out to be very good than great, than the opposite.

The truly great WRs into today's game have all had better seasons in their first few years than Wilson has had, some of them have had multiple better seasons.  

Chase had 1 less TD in his rookie season than Wilson has in his career.  Jefferson's worst season was 30 yards less than Wilson's best, despite playing 7 fewer games.  Nabers and Thomas just had more yards in their rookie seasons than Wilson has ever had (and Nabers only played 15 games).  Amon-Ra's last 3 seasons are all more yards than Wilson has ever had, as well as having only 2 less TDs this year than Wilson has in his career, while basically the same thing can be said about CeeDee (except using his TDs from last year).  In his first 2 years in Philly AJ Brown put up 2,951 yards and 18 TDs, almost as many yards as Wilson has in 3 years and with more TDs.  Drake London, with busted Cousins and a rookie throwing him the ball, just had a better statistical season than Wilson has ever had.  In a run oriented offense, even McConkey just put up more yards than Wilson has ever had in a season (while missing a game), and had 7 TDs, the most Wilson has ever had in a year and took him until year 3 to do so.  Puka had 1,500 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie and then followed it up with 990 and 3 TDs in just 11 games.  Nico Collins has back to back years with as many or more TDs as Wilson has had in any one season (and more in those 2 years than Wilson has in 3), while putting up 1,300 and 1,000 yards despite missing 2 and 5 games in each of those two seasons.    

All of this isn't meant to attack Wilson, he's a very good WR, he's a #1.  But that's 11 WRs all 27 years old or younger who have had better production than Wilson so far, some by a wide margin.

It's also not even including other guys who have had more similar production to Wilson that very well could be better than him moving forward, like McLaurin, Aiyuk, JSN, Flowers, Jameson Williams, Moore, Olave, DeVonta.  Let alone all the great older WRs who had much more production early in their career than Wilson did, like the Tyreek, Adams, Diggs, etc, of the game.

People thinking he's this can't miss Top 10 WR are just talking nonsense.  His size limits his red zone potential and he's just not the same type of smaller WR who can dominate like a Chase, Jefferson, Nabers, etc.

I know people can say my view of T-Mac being a surefire Top 10 guy with Top 5 potential is nonsense as well.  But I'm still betting on the 6'5" guy with the best hands and catch radius of any WR to come into the league since Calvin Johnson to have a much higher ceiling than Wilson has, and that's before considering he'd be 3 years younger and on a rookie contract.

 

Edited February 5 by tukafan21

[PNW_PantherMan]

Alright never mind.  After that 10,000 word essay I believe you.

[tukafan21]

5 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

Alright never mind.  After that 10,000 word essay I believe you.

laugh at how long my posts are, but when people say "so and so player is going to be a Top X player" with such certainty and zero analysis to back it up, I'm going to take the time to do said analysis to show how incorrect they are.

It's easy to have different opinions on prospects, it's easy to do it on current players too.  

But when people talk about a specific already in the league player as being this stud elite WR, and 5 minutes of research can show a dozen guys of similar age who have already been better than him and still have their prime years ahead of them and another handful (or two) with almost identical output so far, yea I'm going to lay that all out there, even if it's a lot of information to read through.

Talk about Wilson being a #1, that's fair, but to talk about him as some legit elite Top 10 WR in this league is literal nonsense when you look at his output so far compared to other WRs.

Edited February 5 by tukafan21

[jfra78]

19 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

So you're openly admitting that after 3 years in the league, Wilson still isn't "great" but at the same time think he's going to be a Top 8 WR in the league when he's averaged 65 yards per game in his career?

There is more proof that Wilson will turn out to be very good than great, than the opposite.

The truly great WRs into today's game have all had better seasons in their first few years than Wilson has had, some of them have had multiple better seasons.  

Chase had 1 less TD in his rookie season than Wilson has in his career.  Jefferson's worst season was 30 yards less than Wilson's best, despite playing 7 fewer games.  Nabers and Thomas just had more yards in their rookie seasons than Wilson has ever had (and Nabers only played 15 games).  Amon-Ra's last 3 seasons are all more yards than Wilson has ever had, as well as having only 2 less TDs this year than Wilson has in his career, while basically the same thing can be said about CeeDee (except using his TDs from last year).  In his first 2 years in Philly AJ Brown put up 2,951 yards and 18 TDs, almost as many yards as Wilson has in 3 years and with more TDs.  Drake London, with busted Cousins and a rookie throwing him the ball, just had a better statistical season than Wilson has ever had.  In a run oriented offense, even McConkey just put up more yards than Wilson has ever had in a season (while missing a game), and had 7 TDs, the most Wilson has ever had in a year and took him until year 3 to do so.  Puka had 1,500 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie and then followed it up with 990 and 3 TDs in just 11 games.  Nico Collins has back to back years with as many or more TDs as Wilson has had in any one season (and more in those 2 years than Wilson has in 3), while putting up 1,300 and 1,000 yards despite missing 2 and 5 games in each of those two seasons.    

All of this isn't meant to attack Wilson, he's a very good WR, he's a #1.  But that's 11 WRs all 27 years old or younger who have had better production than Wilson so far, some by a wide margin.

It's also not even including other guys who have had more similar production to Wilson that very well could be better than him moving forward, like McLaurin, Aiyuk, JSN, Flowers, Jameson Williams, Moore, Olave, DeVonta.  Let alone all the great older WRs who had much more production early in their career than Wilson did, like the Tyreek, Adams, Diggs, etc, of the game.

People thinking he's this can't miss Top 10 WR are just talking nonsense.  His size limits his red zone potential and he's just not the same type of smaller WR who can dominate like a Chase, Jefferson, Nabers, etc.

I know people can say my view of T-Mac being a surefire Top 10 guy with Top 5 potential is nonsense as well.  But I'm still betting on the 6'5" guy with the best hands and catch radius of any WR to come into the league since Calvin Johnson to have a much higher ceiling than Wilson has, and that's before considering he'd be 3 years younger and on a rookie contract.

 

You're glossing over that he had 1100 yards and 7tds last year which was the only season he had decent QB play. His rookie season he had 1100 yards with 4 different QBs

[PNW_PantherMan]

6 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

laugh at how long my posts are, but when people say "so and so player is going to be a Top X player" with such certainty and zero analysis to back it up, I'm going to take the time to do said analysis to show how incorrect they are.

The odds that Garrett Wilson is at least as good as DJ Moore are a lot better than the odds that TMac is.  That’s just the reality of the situation.  It doesn’t mean that’s how it will turn out.  But I don’t need 10,000 words to make a simple observation.

It’s the mystery box phenomenon.  You’re a huge fan of the guy.  That’s cool.  But it’s gotten to a level that makes the Tarheel fans look unbiased.