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What if BPA is Will Campbell?

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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On 2/13/2025 at 12:35 PM, LinvilleGorge said:

If there's one thing for sure about the draft it's that there's no such thing as a sure thing. Unless we're planning on doing something else with Icky I'd be fielding calls to move off of that pick.

Yeah, the big spending inside at OG massively complicates a move like drafting Campbell. Or maybe you pivot from Moton?

It would be a very odd move, regardless. Not saying a terrible one, just odd.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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On 2/13/2025 at 10:26 PM, MHS831 said:

I get the BPA approach, and I know it works for teams that are successful.  however, we are coming off a half decade of having 15-20% of our cap in the dead cap trash bin and we have 8 or more needs for starters.  I think KC or Baltimore can live by the BPA creed, but I am not sure we can yet--unless we overspend in free agency...Morgan has a full plate.

It's always easier to justify BPA for a great franchise than a bad one(add Philly to that list of teams, BTW. Howie Roseman GOAT?)

That said, how you stay bad is ignore BPA and reach for need. 

It's a very, very fine line.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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57 minutes ago, Panthero said:

If moving on from Moton is on the table then I'm fine with it. If everyone first around pick went to ol or dl I wouldn't be mad. 

It would be a big chunk saved on the cap but you really need to be convinced that either Ikey can play RT or makes sense to use a top 10 pick on a RT.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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9 hours ago, Panthero said:

Good points. Just would like to have that seamless transition from Moton. Not trying to run him off but don't want to go back to musical chairs at OT. 

I am nervous to tinker with the OL because I have very little faith in the roster architects. Were that not the case, I would be fine with tinkering for the future.

We are about to be in a spot where we need to determine the future of most of this OL. Ikey is due for a contract and he has been decent as a LT, so that has a price. Maybe he could have been an elite OG at a smaller price(Becton) but now you have two of the most expensive IOL in the NFL. We have no one above a league average at center and no viable prospects there. Moton is nearing the end of a large contract and is aging.

So, in theory resting on our laurels could wind up really being a devasting blow to the OL it took years to finally construct.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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3 hours ago, Panthers Fan 69 said:

I’ll say it again. You would be retarded as fug to do anything other than Defense. The 4th worst defense in the history of the entire NFL and you take a left tackle?  Draft the goddamn defensive end and keep it moving. 

This is basically how you have a Fitterer/Rhule draft. Reaching for need over just getting good players.

EDGE is loaded and with very questionable elite talent. If you want to go EDGE, that's an easy trade down, IMO. Pick up another 2nd, at least. 

 

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Panthers Fan 69 Grand Master

Panthers Fan 69

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25 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

This is basically how you have a Fitterer/Rhule draft. Reaching for need over just getting good players.

EDGE is loaded and with very questionable elite talent. If you want to go EDGE, that's an easy trade down, IMO. Pick up another 2nd, at least. 

 

That’s fine. Get two ends     But go defense. 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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54 minutes ago, Panthers Fan 69 said:

That’s fine. Get two ends     But go defense. 

No, go BPA(to a point). Get good players. That is how you become a good franchise.

You can kiss the idea of this being a top 20 defense goodbye before free agency and the draft. There is nothing to rebuild, we have to build. That doesn't happen in an offseason.

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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On 2/14/2025 at 8:35 AM, mrcompletely11 said:

thats actually not true at all, this is from 2021 but there is a ton more out there that shows lineman rarely play into their 30's and their decline happens swiftly when they cross that mark

 

Average Age: 26.08

Oldest

  1. San Francisco 49ers: 27.77 years old
  2. Arizona Cardinals: 27.40 years old
  3. New York Giants: 27.17 years old
  4. Tennessee Titans: 27.06 years old
  5. New England Patriots: 26.69 years old

These numbers do not measure a player's prime. Do these numbers include OL pulled up from the practice squad for a game or two then cut?  Do they include players who might have been injured or cut for reasons other than they were past their primes?  The average career for an NFL lineman is 3.63 years, and that is because there is a lot of turnover--regardless of a player's prime. In fact, if only 55% of Offensive linemen drafted in the first round succeed, then the failure rates of most offensive linemen drafted and undrafted would be much lower, cause them to skew the average age of the OL.  This suggests that most players' retirement from the NFL is not based on their prime, but other factors.  They are cut, released, injured--and that is based on their level of play compared to others, not their levels of play within their personal skill range--something that peaks during your prime.

In this case, I was talking about Moton, an elite offensive tackle, one that avoided the factors that shorten careers unrelated to their primes. I identify Moton as the team's best offensive lineman on an impressive OL--that distinguishes the type of player being referenced, so I did not provide a lot of qualifiers--as you didn't with your stats.   In this article below, one that evaluates established Offensive tackles, it states the following, which supports my comment:  "Most elite offensive tackles start to decline at roughly the age of 32 if they haven’t already."  So to say that Moton was at the end of his prime was not a reach or careless speculation.  If a player has the skill to be competitive and they can avoid injuries, their career expectancy is much higher than an average of all offensive lineman on a fluid roster.

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/2/27/14724674/age-wall-for-offensive-tackles-nfl

 

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