An honest look at Bryce Young

[ForJimmy]

15 minutes ago, Navy_football said:

Most QBs that throw for 300+ yards don't actually throw for 300+ yards in the air. There is YAC in there that boosts numbers. Hopefully Carolina gets a little of that soon. Haven't really had that since McCaffrey and DJ Moore. 

Yeah if a QB is doing check downs in the 4th quarter while getting blown out they can rack up a lot of yards in a box score stat.  Reasons like this is why a lot of people and coaching staffs are looking into more analytical data like PFF.  Again people hate on it when it counters their beliefs.  

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

It's PFF and they explain it.  There are definitely some gray areas as we mentioned.  Some people like analytics and taking deep dives, but sometimes they can not align with narratives and that makes some people hate them (not singling you out as I've been guilty of this too).  To each their own.  Regardless it's pretty widely accepted throughout the league and fans.  

I like pff, i appreciate their work, although is there a link where they explain these rankings because I am not seeing it on their page so I am assuming its premium content

[ForJimmy]

5 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

I like pff, i appreciate their work, although is there a link where they explain these rankings because I am not seeing it on their page so I am assuming its premium content

This explains some of the data 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-7-signature-stat-spotlight-big-time-throws-and-turnover-worthy-plays

but yeah if you want a deeper look it looks like you need a premium account which I'm sure they charge for.  

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

This explains some of the data 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-7-signature-stat-spotlight-big-time-throws-and-turnover-worthy-plays

but yeah if you want a deeper look it looks like you need a premium account which I'm sure they charge for. 

This reads that it doesnt take consideration if its incomplete or not, which is kindof stupid.  I could be reading it wrong but that is all it shows

What is a big-time throw?

Throws graded at the higher end of PFF's scale (+1.0, +1.5, and +2.0) are categorized as big-time throws.

A big-time throw is a high-difficulty, high-value pass. They are characterized by excellent ball placement and timing, typically on deeper passes or into tight windows.

These throws can also occur under challenging conditions, such as when a quarterback is under heavy pressure but converts a potential negative into a positive play. Other examples include tight-window throws in the red zone, where space is limited, or perfectly placed 50-yard shots down the field.

[CarolinaLivin]

5 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

“ … converts a potential negative into a positive play.”

This makes me think it is speaking of completed passes. 

[bythenbrs]

This whole discussion reminds me of the scene in the movie 'Moneyball', when Billy Beane is sitting in the room with his highly skeptical scouts.  "He gets on base."

[ForJimmy]

7 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

This reads that it doesnt take consideration if its incomplete or not, which is kindof stupid.  I could be reading it wrong but that is all it shows

What is a big-time throw?

Throws graded at the higher end of PFF's scale (+1.0, +1.5, and +2.0) are categorized as big-time throws.

A big-time throw is a high-difficulty, high-value pass. They are characterized by excellent ball placement and timing, typically on deeper passes or into tight windows.

These throws can also occur under challenging conditions, such as when a quarterback is under heavy pressure but converts a potential negative into a positive play. Other examples include tight-window throws in the red zone, where space is limited, or perfectly placed 50-yard shots down the field.

Yeah I was reading an article that said they didn’t count XL’s drop against Bryce, but I took it as drops don’t hurt them but don’t help either and completions are what helps them.
Yeah as @CarolinaLivinjust shared it’s probably a completion to be considered a “positive” play. 

[mrcompletely11]

4 minutes ago, CarolinaLivin said:

This makes me think it is speaking of completed passes. 

its vaguely worded at best, maybe if someone had premium it would help

[Icege]

It is shocking to me how folks can't find a simple definition but think that they can define what is acceptable:
 

 

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Yeah I was reading an article that said they didn’t count XL’s drop against Bryce, but I took it as drops don’t hurt them but don’t help either and completions are what helps them.
Yeah as @CarolinaLivinjust shared it’s probably a completion to be considered a “positive” play. 

the "positive play" could be referencing not taking a sack.

[ForJimmy]

9 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

the "positive play" could be referencing not taking a sack.

Could be, but that would seem weird for big time "throw."  I'd think that would fall under some sort of under pressure rating.  Turning a sack into a incompletion could get you half a point for pressure rating for example.  There are definitely some gray areas.  I wonder if anyone on here has premium and if it touches on that.   

[PNW_PantherMan]

14 minutes ago, bythenbrs said:

This whole discussion reminds me of the scene in the movie 'Moneyball', when Billy Beane is sitting in the room with his highly skeptical scouts.  "He gets on base."

Except PFF stats always have subjectivity as one part of the equation.  The whole point of moneyball was it was 100% objective.

[ForJimmy]

I also like to look at QBs listed in that statistical category.  For example Josh Allen being at the top of "Big Time Throws" would help give some validity to it IMO.  

[Icege]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

I don’t think there is a single poster arguing against his clear progress last year.   That’s not what is being argued when people dismiss this top 10 play narrative.  And you have to cherry pick hard to get there and largely exclusively  use PFF most subjective deep dives to get there.  And the best example of that is their week 12 best deep passer stat line…..when in reality went 2 for 7 no TDs in a week where folks were factually much better  

If progress is being acknowledged then there must be data that supports said progress. However, when those stats are cited, they're dismissed as "cherry picked" or "too subjective." That contradiction is doing a loooot of heavy lifting.

Nobody is claiming that Bryce is a top-five QB in the NFL. The argument is that post-benching, he showed real growth and some of that performance was in the top-10 range of various measures. Instead of engaging with that nuance, there's shifting of the goalposts and selective skepticism. The tape is being rejected. The stats are being rejected. Even when the methodology is explained, it's still rejected unless it paints BY9 in a negative light. Nobody seemed bothered by the Turnover-Worthy Play % stat, yet Big-Time Throw % is sending folks into a spiral. Funny how the only "arbitrary" stat under fire is the one suggesting Bryce might actually be improving.