Panthers playbook Cox and Rhea review of the game

[PantherChris]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

They shouldn’t be capped like that.  3 series could be just 1 quarter.  

that’s still too light for me given why we are in Carolina. That’s still Dave being too light in the preseason heading in IMO.  Much better teams than us work there guys more 

and I think if you look at our starters last night…..you would have to like overall what the Browns 2s and 3d did slightly more against our starters than what our starters did to them 

I agree, about that but mostly for Bryce and the offensive line outside of one play both looked sharp Bryce had excellent command patience and vision very much looking as he did at the end of last year that's what I need to see consistently.

[TD alt]

3 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Hats off to Morgan.  Brilliant. Look at what he has done in just 2 years after rounds 1 and 2  of the draft and free agency--All third rounders or lower and UDFAs....

DEFENSE

Wallace (3rd round)--Starting ILB

Princely Umanmielen (3rd round) rotational Edge, future starter

Ransom (4th round)--Will be a starting S unless UDFA Richardson is the starting S--still, some defenses have calls that require 3 safeties.

Richardson (UDFA)--has a shot at starting FS

Smith-Wade (5th round) Currently starting nickel

Thornton (UDFA)--tremendous start--looks to be our third overall CB

Cam Jackson (5th round) should be a factor at NT is a year or two.

OFFENSE
Coker (UDFA)--will be a stud WR in this league for a long time

J. Horn (6th round)--a burner who will help this team at WR and on STs.  To recognize his talent and ability playing in the shadow of Hunter, Morgan gets an A+.

Etienne (4th round)--another sleeper with dual threat capabilities, Etienne is an ideal third down RB.  Better hands than Hubbard.

J. Sanders (4th round) dynamic pass-catching TE who is starting now and will rotate with Tremble and play in 2-TE sets.  

M. Evans, (5th round)--a number three TE who is very balanced.  Not flashy, but versatile. 

 

Put this in perspective---The 12 players listed above are very likely to make the roster.  I see most of them becoming starters in a year or two....Understand that 12 players in 2 years who are projected starters or key rotational players is incredible succcess.  23% of the roster will be occupied by players drafted in the third round through UDFA over the past 2 seasons.

ODDS AGAINST BECOMING A STARTER IN THE NFL BY DRAFT ROUND

3rd Round: About 16% of players drafted in the third round become solid starters.  This is to suggest that a third-rounder becomes a starter about once every 6 years.  Wallace last year, Princely this year is very SOLID.

4th Round: The success rate drops to around 8% for fourth-round picks.  That percentage suggests that one 4th rounder in 12 years of drafting fourth rounders is going to start.  Morgan drafted J. Sanders TE, Ransom S, and Etienne RB in the fourth round.  I see 2 starters and a rotational, third down RB.  Very SOLID.

5th Round: Only about 4-5% of players drafted in the fifth round become solid starters. A fifth rounder becomes a starter once every 20 years.  CB Smith-Wade is already starting at Nickel, and M. Evans (TE) will be a third TE.  The Panthers think Cam Jackson will emerge into a key role by next season. STRONG.

6th Rounds: The success rates in these rounds are even lower, with only about 2% of sixth-rounders. At 2%, a sixth round pick becomes a starter every 50 drafts on average.  Jimmy Horn Jr. will make the roster and has a good chance of taking on a bigger role in a year or two.

UDFAs make NFL rosters at a rate of 20% (because there is a bigger pool of talent)\, while only 12% ever become starters.  To me, this area of signing players was often overlooked in the past, but Morgan seems to have found 3 UDFAs with starting capability in just 2 drafts.

In my view, Scourton and TMac were great picks.  Legette and Brooks are not as promising, but time will tell. 

Rosters are built from the bottom up.  This will become evident next year, if not sooner.  Hats off to Morgan--I am not sure we appreciate what he has done.

 

Where are the CliffNotes---the link? 

I think Morgan has done a decent job on paper---in theory. It's still too early for me to say anything with conviction. We think we think we think...We'll find out.

I'm just not sold...yet. Most of these players may make the team, but will they be impactful players or simply average guys that will wash out in four years? I'm not inclined at this point to be so optimistic. The only thing that I can say with surety is that Morgan has raised the floor to an unknown degree. Is it with legit starter level guys? Maybe. Like I said, "good on paper---in theory. I'll be patient.

The only move that I can say that I didn't like in hindsight (but I raised an eyebrow over when it happened) was drafting Brooks in the second. We lost an opportunity to draft an impactful LB or DB, when we already had Chuba (which I thought of more highly than most and said so). 

I think that patience is in order. I realize some of you believe that Tepper's the same old impatient owner, but I don't see Morgan going anywhere for at least more seasons. By then, we'll have more clarity about the efficacy of his draftees. I appreciate his efforts.

[Tr3ach]

5 hours ago, CRA said:

zero YAC from starters.  Still waiting for evidence we can be something other than a low ceiling offense (which is what the Dave O was).  

People tripping out over that TMac catch.  It’s was a great catch.  But essentially it is classic Panthers play under Bryce.  A go route opportunity.  Turned out to be fade to the sideline.  Threat of nothing after the catch.  Incomplete or catch given where the ball was placed.   

 

 

 

 

Panthers never care about yac, nor are they ever going to draft route runners early.  The defense is never going to be scared to get beat over the top by us.

[CRA]

7 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

Panthers never care about yac, nor are they ever going to draft route runners early.  The defense is never going to be scared to get beat over the top by us.

That’s the new present day Panthers though.  And Bryce Young.   It’s not that we don’t get YAC.   Even Bryce’s bigger throws are conservative.  Which is why that TMac throw annoys me so much.  Sitting here watching the Bills uncork one deep for a TD going into half….Bryce throwing everything to a sideline fade and always lowering the ceiling of things. Bryce isn’t making that throw.  He is going to steer the WR out of bounds

[Seltzer]

I genuinely can't fathom some of the negativity in here.

Starters had a really good showing against the Browns both in joint practice and in the game.

Bryce was electric on that 2nd drive. Elite QB play on several of those throws. 

T-Mac was awesome. Just got to make that TD catch. Unworldly anticipation on that throw by Bryce.

Coker is WR2.

Nic Scourton will be starting by the end of the year- I'm calling in. Great debut.

Thornton is legit.  Great UDFA find.

Defensive depth is still questionable but thay shouldn't be a surprise.

No one got hurt. That really is probably the best thing.

I see almost only positives from this game.

Its preseason Week 1.  Getting upset over dudes who won't be here in 3 weeks seems odd to me.

Very excited for the season.

[Seltzer]

40 minutes ago, CRA said:

That’s the new present day Panthers though.  And Bryce Young.   It’s not that we don’t get YAC.   Even Bryce’s bigger throws are conservative.  Which is why that TMac throw annoys me so much.  Sitting here watching the Bills uncork one deep for a TD going into half….Bryce throwing everything to a sideline fade and always lowering the ceiling of things. Bryce isn’t making that throw.  He is going to steer the WR out of bounds

WTF are you talking about??

That was an incredible throw. 

You dont know QB play if you think Bryce wasnt great on that 2nd drive.

That sideline fade to T-Mac, and both the end zone throws were elite AF.

I don't know what some of you guys are watching.

I guarantee you the football people reviewing this film will be plenty happy with what they saw from Bryce.

Good lord

[CRA]

2 minutes ago, Seltzer said:

I genuinely can't fathom some of the negativity in here.

Starters had a really good showing against the Browns both in joint practice and in the game.

Bryce was electric on that 2nd drive. Elite QB play on several of those throws. 

 

I’m Bill Murray and this is Groundhog’s Day at this point…..

the bar in Carolina is weirdly low at this point.  And Carolina good and actual good IMO are too different statements at this point.

it’s like calling BY electric.  Only Panther fans would call that electric IMO 

[CRA]

31 minutes ago, Seltzer said:

WTF are you talking about??

That was an incredible throw. 

You dont know QB play if you think Bryce wasnt great on that 2nd drive.

That sideline fade to T-Mac, and both the end zone throws were elite AF.

I don't know what some of you guys are watching.

I guarantee you the football people reviewing this film will be plenty happy with what they saw from Bryce.

Good lord

I’ve seen that throw before.   BY does it all the time.  He fades everything into the sideline.  It’s part of why we have one of the lowest threatening Os in the league. It makes for tough catches.  

Almost every QB in the league can make those two redzone throws.  Now they can’t all get to the ad lib scramble drill part.   Lot of that is just luck because the play has gone out the window. 

the only really nice aspect of Bryce’s game is he does have some nice wiggle and ad lib ability.  And I always say that.   But he is tiny so that is sort of cursed blessing. 

you can lecture me for not knowing football.  People do it pretty consistent this part of the year for the last several years. 

but yeah it was a great catch by TMac.   TMac was one on one vs a backup with NO ONE over the top….it was also an opportunity to see if TMac can really get vertical in this league which is a question mark.  Either the throw or playcall took that away.  Maybe it was never a real go ball call.   His highlights to date largely have been with dudes (backup types) all over him making really tough grabs when he gets vertical opportunity 

[Johnstonny]

4 hours ago, raleigh-panther said:

It will be interesting to see what Young does, or doesn’t do, this year and the option year decision  cheaper to do it this year than year 4 

lot of the podcasters were high on his performance, limited though it was

im keeping an open mind though I just don’t feel he was worth what was paid for him and that’s not his fault and over and done 

he is never going to be a Jayden Daniels due to his physical limitations but maybe he can be a very good game manager…who knows.  Surprises do happen in life, some good, some not so good.

It will be interesting...but I'm living by the analytics..

[jb2288]

2 hours ago, Tr3ach said:

Panthers never care about yac, nor are they ever going to draft route runners early.  The defense is never going to be scared to get beat over the top by us.

We spent a first round pick on a YAC WR last year 

[jb2288]

1 hour ago, Seltzer said:

WTF are you talking about??

That was an incredible throw. 

You dont know QB play if you think Bryce wasnt great on that 2nd drive.

That sideline fade to T-Mac, and both the end zone throws were elite AF.

I don't know what some of you guys are watching.

I guarantee you the football people reviewing this film will be plenty happy with what they saw from Bryce.

Good lord

It wasn't a 65 yard in the air bomb, therefore it was awful limiting qb play

[jb2288]

1 hour ago, CRA said:

I’m Bill Murray and this is Groundhog’s Day at this point…..

the bar in Carolina is weirdly low at this point.  And Carolina good and actual good IMO are too different statements at this point.

it’s like calling BY electric.  Only Panther fans would call that electric IMO 

Here is LITERALLY a non Panther fan who spends his entire life covering professional sports calling it electric 

https://x.com/schultz_report/status/1953963581760057498?s=61

[Seltzer]

1 minute ago, jb2288 said:

It wasn't a 65 yard in the air bomb, therefore it was awful limiting qb play

Evidently that's the only thing that matters... it's hysterical 

I've been going to NFL games at BOA for 20+ years now. I've seen a lot of good football and bad football.

I was at every game in 2015. And 2023. I seen the very best this team has had to offer offensively as well as the worst.

That 2nd drive by our offense was effing elite. I dont know in what world that should be debatable. 

I genuinely don't know what some of these people actually even want from these games or what they're even seeing... its not the same reality I'm viewing

[Seltzer]

2 minutes ago, jb2288 said:

Here is LITERALLY a non Panther fan who spends his entire life covering professional sports calling it electric 

https://x.com/schultz_report/status/1953963581760057498?s=61

Anyone who understands actual QB play knows it was electric.

It shouldn't be debatable among people who understand what's going on.

We used to have a lot of people on this board who actually knew that... and I know I'm sounding like an old fart saying that, but it doesn't make it untrue 

We got a lot of just Bryce haters who really should jump off the bandwagon before he leads us to the playoffs.

It's effing exhausting