Deep Ball in Cyclical Decline

[CRA]

2 minutes ago, strato said:

This is where I see the value in trying though. Say you are a CB or and you play the WR the same way, but then he doesn’t stop and gets behind you.
They aren’t free to assume an incompletion even though it is the likely result. They have to respect it. 

I mean, 100%, defenses cheat and the plays open up.   We should be taking advantage. 

Issue is, when we have a team beat....Bryce doesn't turn them into big plays.  His ball placement turns them into jump balls giving defenders chances on plays they really shouldn't have (not to the degree they get) or just pushes the WR into the sideline.  

his ball placement stinks.  He doesn't lead his WRs into big plays when those opportunities present themselves.  And it isn't in his DNA to really look for it to begin with it. 

[Paa Langfart]

2 hours ago, NAS said:

more than QB

I take you still believe BY is the future .

 

 

And in magic.

[mav1234]

3 minutes ago, CRA said:

I mean, 100%, defenses cheat and the plays open up.   We should be taking advantage. 

Issue is, when we have a team beat....Bryce doesn't turn them into big plays.  His ball placement turns them into jump balls giving defenders chances on plays they really shouldn't have (not to the degree they get) or just pushes the WR into the sideline.  

his ball placement stinks.  He doesn't lead his WRs into big plays when those opportunities present themselves.  And it isn't in his DNA to really look for it to begin with it. 

I still think the bigger issue is what you're describing in the 15-20 yard range vs 30 yard bombs. We are scheming guys open in that range and need to hit those shots more.

[PNW_PantherMan]

14 minutes ago, strato said:

I hear you lol. 

I'm just trolling

[CRA]

I haven't pulled the numbers, I can't remember where Bryce's 20+ yard completions are....

but I'm pretty sure over the last 3 seasons, Dalton has more 20+ yard plays than Bryce and Dalton has barely played. 

[mav1234]

1 minute ago, CRA said:

I haven't pulled the numbers, I can't remember where Bryce's 20+ yard completions are....

but I'm pretty sure over the last 3 seasons, Dalton has more 20+ yard plays than Bryce and Dalton has barely played. 

I think that was true before Bryce came back last year, but I don't think it is anymore. But I may be wrong.  End of last year he was pretty good (albeit inconsistent within games) at 15-20 air yard passes.

[PNW_PantherMan]

The problem is you basically need a laser cannon for an arm to be effective beyond 20 in the NFL.  The coverage is too tight, you'd have to be an absolute wizard with placement to float balls to the exact spot.  Think playing corn hole from 50 yards out.  But even then, it just gives too much time for defensive coverage to adjust mid flight.

Bryce has a flea flicker deep ball in the NFL.  It requires a blown coverage essentially.

[strato]

20 minutes ago, CRA said:

I mean, 100%, defenses cheat and the plays open up.   We should be taking advantage. 

Issue is, when we have a team beat....Bryce doesn't turn them into big plays.  His ball placement turns them into jump balls giving defenders chances on plays they really shouldn't have (not to the degree they get) or just pushes the WR into the sideline.  

his ball placement stinks.  He doesn't lead his WRs into big plays when those opportunities present themselves.  And it isn't in his DNA to really look for it to begin with it. 

Yes and this leads me into what I pictured XL being used for. The Russell Wilson Special I call it. 
We are not even doing that. 

[strato]

18 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

I still think the bigger issue is what you're describing in the 15-20 yard range vs 30 yard bombs. We are scheming guys open in that range and need to hit those shots more.

That is also true. 

[strato]

19 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

The problem is you basically need a laser cannon for an arm to be effective beyond 20 in the NFL.  The coverage is too tight, you'd have to be an absolute wizard with placement to float balls to the exact spot.  Think playing corn hole from 50 yards out.  But even then, it just gives too much time for defensive coverage to adjust mid flight.

Bryce has a flea flicker deep ball in the NFL.  It requires a blown coverage essentially.

That is the (or, one) calculus that got me slammed for questioning him pre draft. I mean I drew indignant crowds of posters with a single questioning of their lil almighty. 
The margins at this level are so small and the velocity deficit allows these elite athletes to close on the target. And this is a league where they parse 40 times in 100ths of a second. 
And many plays are made by a small fraction of a second. You give that little bit back to the defender the pass is defended. 
 

PS it is probably why the some of the windows he is throwing into are so tight. 

Edited October 24, 2025 by strato

[CRA]

21 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

I think that was true before Bryce came back last year, but I don't think it is anymore. But I may be wrong.  End of last year he was pretty good (albeit inconsistent within games) at 15-20 air yard passes.

Nah, the Bryce numbers are up to date somewhere.  We already pulled them this year.   His 20+ completion numbers is still super small.  
 

 

[SmokinwithWilly]

The point i was trying to make wasnt can he complete it or not. It was are we even trying it as a set play from the pocket or are they coming only on roll outs or scrambles. So, for instance, if the defense is in coverage and sees Bryce is in the pocket, based on my illustrative stats, there is a 99.6% probability that there's no pass being thrown beyond 20 yards. So you play the 20 yards in front of you and if you get burned, you get burned. It's a huge advantage because you know as long as he's there, that play isn't coming. Again, this is a purely fictional statistic and situation, but the point is pretty valid I think when it comes to defenses playing against us whether it's Bryce or Dalton or whoever. 

[CRA]

10 minutes ago, strato said:

Yes and this leads me into what I pictured XL being used for. The Russell Wilson Special I call it. 
We are not even doing that. 

That was the only justification to draft him.  The tree of offense.  And they drafted him for that and they got rid of Bryce 2 games in……

there was a plan. 

the comeback from the dead wasn’t part of it.  Bryce doesn’t fit the plan. 

[strato]

4 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

The point i was trying to make wasnt can he complete it or not. It was are we even trying it as a set play from the pocket or are they coming only on roll outs or scrambles. So, for instance, if the defense is in coverage and sees Bryce is in the pocket, based on my illustrative stats, there is a 99.6% probability that there's no pass being thrown beyond 20 yards. So you play the 20 yards in front of you and if you get burned, you get burned. It's a huge advantage because you know as long as he's there, that play isn't coming. Again, this is a purely fictional statistic and situation, but the point is pretty valid I think when it comes to defenses playing against us whether it's Bryce or Dalton or whoever. 

And there is always the good chance it won’t be a rocket and you can maybe recover in time to re engage. 
As I typed the they have respect it, the oddsmakers were in the back of my mind saying well… you know the statistics on that may say otherwise