Deep Ball in Cyclical Decline

[OldhamA]

5 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

But the threat of the deep ball still sets up the underneath stuff. When the defense only has to worry about covering about 20 yards of grass the underneath stuff gets a lot harder.

Yep.

Just watch how teams play Bo Nix - lad can't hit the deep ball for toffee. 

[mrBdawg]

2 minutes ago, CRA said:

maybe, I noted that Next Gen was missing a couple games.  That's all I can go off of. 

What game was that.  We are talking passes and how far they travel.  Bryce doesn't have a 50 yard pass.  Play could have gone for 50. 

 Know it’s one of very few deep balls connected but it was week 17 last year vs bucs. Looks like it was about 48-50

https://youtube.com/shorts/iBZY75KLCwE?si=NRJED6e7qCU88Jmr

[CRA]

5 minutes ago, mrBdawg said:

 Know it’s one of very few deep balls connected but it was week 17 last year vs bucs. Looks like it was about 48-50

https://youtube.com/shorts/iBZY75KLCwE?si=NRJED6e7qCU88Jmr

yeah, I wish NextGen wouldn't skip random games.  For whatever reason they didn't do his week 17 game.  In fact, the 2 games they didn't do for him appear to be both the Tampa Bay games.  Other Tampa game isn't there either.  Everything else is there. 

[strato]

9 minutes ago, mrBdawg said:

 Know it’s one of very few deep balls connected but it was week 17 last year vs bucs. Looks like it was about 48-50

https://youtube.com/shorts/iBZY75KLCwE?si=NRJED6e7qCU88Jmr

He’ll always have that one, Nice. Those DBs were shocked I think, that it went over their heads  

Announcer “40 yard rainbow” lol that was great. 

[mav1234]

11 minutes ago, CRA said:

Partial story telling.   Because it ignores actual production in those areas and how often you are doing it.  And that's where things really get out of whack w/ Bryce vs the league. 

Bryce wasn't really completing or throwing balls past 20 yards.  Which is why our passing O never really produces anything and it's a bottom tier pass attack.  Others, can share the efficiency.....and drastically out perform him in production. 

If you put up the production stats of Bryce vs the field  in those areas of the field....it would look MUCH different.  And that's why we say it. 

 

 

Last year, Bryce was attempting and completing balls around and past 20 yards.  I mean he had 2 TDs that were ~20 yards in weeks 16 and 17. He had And he had one of the highest intended air yards per pass attempt in 2024, at 8.6. This put him at the same as Herbert, Jackson, Love, and many others.  He was well above the league average of 7 something. His average depth of target was 9th best in the league.  After week 10 he basically was one of the best deep passers in the league and has only one game without multiple 20 yard completions.

The issue is this year, his average intended air yards is down to six. He isn't going deep at all, and when he is, he's missing people.

He doesn't look good this year. 

[NAS]

1 hour ago, jfra78 said:

We have all that just not the QB 

As good as our Oline has been running the ball, pass protection has been average at best.  

[mav1234]

50 minutes ago, CRA said:

yeah, a lot of that has been addressed in old Bryce talks.  He barely has plays to those deeper sections.   It was broken down with the "best deep passer in the league"........when he had like 1 completion. 

Other dudes were going 3/4 w/ TDs those weeks.  And Bryce getting a completion was rare. 

This just isn't true last year. This is one of his passing charts... 

Here's another:

And a worse game where he's still pushing it deep:

The myth that Bryce wasn't passing deep at all in his career is nonsense. But he often failed to put the ball in a good place for yac, and has had other issues.  And he is waaaay worse this year.

[Jay Roosevelt]

I'm sorry, but I find it very hard to believe that defenses playing two high safeties is causing this kind of league-wide decline in deep passing.

I honestly think most of it is a result of chickenshit play callers who are afraid to stretch the field and would rather rely on dink-and-dunk passes that make games near unwatchable.

Two high safeties has been a thing for DECADES and teams were still throwing deep until recently. It's a mentality more than anything purely schematic.

Edited 1 hour ago by Jay Roosevelt

[CRA]

1 hour ago, mav1234 said:

This just isn't true last year. This is one of his passing charts... 

Here's another:

And a worse game where he's still pushing it deep:

The myth that Bryce wasn't passing deep at all in his career is nonsense. But he often failed to put the ball in a good place for yac, and has had other issues.  And he is waaaay worse this year.

I mean, it was true for the week he was declared best deep passer in the NFL.   That's why the 1 completion is entrenched in my memory bank.  

and there is a post that breaks down every single 20+ yard throw last year.  It has the video to go with it.   I'll find it later.  He barely went downfield and the results were bad vs his peers. 

That's not a myth. 

Generally the Bryce defense is a technicality game IMO.  Where you he is criticized for doing something poorly over a long stretch of time and people cherry pick some exceptions to the collective work.