2027: Sharing my thoughts on the cap without a lotta research

[MHS831]

I see Bryce's development this way: He improved when his supporting cast improved.  TMac and Dowdle saved his arse last year, but in fairness, most good QBs have good WRs and good RBs--and good OLs.   The 2025 OL underperformed, actually. They were above average, but they should have been elite if you consider the salary cap.  

As soon as we signed Lewis and Hunt, I started thinking, "That's not sustainable.  With Ickey about to get paid a LT salary, Moton and Hunt grabbling $50m per season combined, and Lewis around $17m--that would be nearly $100m and the Center just walked.  Yikes. 

What does that mean?  Rico walks, Mays walks, and we do not have a top 5 WR on a second contract.  We do not have an elite TE, and only 1 is on a modest second contract.

And now Bryce will demand $50m for his incremental rise to mediocrity?  

So when we sign Bryce, we will get weaker at other positions.  Hunt, Moton, maybe Ickey and Lewis, will all be casualties--that is the right move regardless (not sure yet about Ickey, but he was not elite)

Bryce is one lucky, entitled camper.  No competition since being drafted, and he lost his job for a while to the aging clipboard holder.  Now we are bringing in UDFAs and busts to compete with him.

 

[45catfan]

2 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I see Bryce's development this way: He improved when his supporting cast improved.  TMac and Dowdle saved his arse last year, but in fairness, most good QBs have good WRs and good RBs--and good OLs.   The 2025 OL underperformed, actually. They were above average, but they should have been elite if you consider the salary cap.  

As soon as we signed Lewis and Hunt, I started thinking, "That's not sustainable.  With Ickey about to get paid a LT salary, Moton and Hunt grabbling $50m per season combined, and Lewis around $17m--that would be nearly $100m and the Center just walked.  Yikes. 

What does that mean?  Rico walks, Mays walks, and we do not have a top 5 WR on a second contract.  We do not have an elite TE, and only 1 is on a modest second contract.

And now Bryce will demand $50m for his incremental rise to mediocrity?  

So when we sign Bryce, we will get weaker at other positions.  Hunt, Moton, maybe Ickey and Lewis, will all be casualties--that is the right move regardless (not sure yet about Ickey, but he was not elite)

Bryce is one lucky, entitled camper.  No competition since being drafted, and he lost his job for a while to the aging clipboard holder.  Now we are bringing in UDFAs and busts to compete with him.

 

Franchise QBs feast when things are rolling and the tide that raises boats when things are going sideways.  Bryce isn't that. He's a complimentary player, that's it.  When the defense and STs are on point, he plays loose and it shows.  When we are in a dog fight and things haven't gone our way, he struggles.  It's that simple. He's not a horrible QB, but he's not top tier either.  So the question begs, is this worthy of a second contract?  The answer should be no.  It definitely is my answer.

Bryce will never be a QB that can produce wins largely on his arm.  That's a FRANCHISE QB, any other QB is simply a placeholder at the starter's position until that guy can be found.   At some point the excuses of lack of weapons will be a straw man.  Heck, it's nearly there now.  I mean if he doesn't look even better than last year will we blame it on the TE position?  'Well if Bryce only had a player like Kelce, Kittle or Gronk on this team...'  Are we really going to do that?

 

[Khyber53]

21 hours ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

Do we pay based on how many wins or how many games Bryce led us to wins? We've spent quite a bit on defense this year and hopefully they're much improved. If the Panthers do get to 10 wins, but Bryce has another year like last year where he showed up big in a couple, was present in a few, and forgettable in most, do we still pay him 50m per year? 

I keep bringing it up because I think it's relevant, but Bryce was outplayed by a 6m per year backup last year. I don't see how it's possible to pay a top tier QB contract to someone who's putting up backup QB production. 

Really, I think that is where negotiations come in. If you've got a QB getting you to 10 wins but statistically he's not a great performer, then you say look you can take $22 million or you can try it on the market. Because let's face it, out there, any leadership skills that we're seeing aren't going to be on the table, it's just going to be performance and that lands him in the QB2 market, which is much, much less lucrative (although any of us would love that money). 

No one is saying that Bryce will be a $50 million QB, barring something short of a miraculous jump. I'm just saying that if we are winning somehow with him at the helm, then it would be fuging stupid to dive back into the rookie pool all over again.

Let's say we do hit the 10 win mark, heck, let's call it 11 and a second round in the playoffs. I think we can all say that would be a really uplifting result and one that should be doable if we have good play. What do we do then?

Here's what I would offer if I were Morgan and Tepper. $25 million a year for 3 years, each year with up to $10 million in incentives for touchdowns, wins, playoff depth, being under 10 interceptions, completing a full season, passing yardage milestones, taking less than 15 sacks.

Look, Bryce isn't a Ferrari, he isn't a Corvette, or a mid-level BMW. He's probably a new Toyota Sienna that will definitely get you somewhere and bring the whole team along with it, no fuss but not a lot of pizazz.  And really, it's about the destination, not about what drove you there.

[cranky]

10 hours ago, strato said:

You can play one through six degrees of separation with all of them if you want.  Okay they have this in common or that in common.  I don’t know how to assign meaning to it without evaluating each one. 
For example in Darnold’s case his arm could bail him out sometimes and it could get him in trouble sometimes. Bryce is not going to get bailed out by his arm. He  very obviously, IMO, has trouble seeing the field and his margins with his arm strength are smaller or thinner than a guy like Darnold’s margin would be. By a lot. Or Stafford. Hell he threw a ball almost 80 yards when he was young and can still do 70.  
Bryce does not have that. 

If he succeeds it is because he is near perfect.  
I just don’t consider him as offering me any real advantages.  
 

I can't help but think that you are equating physical attributes alone with wins. I don't subscribe to that thought. No one will argue that Young has a strong arm, but he makes up for it in other ways. The real limitation for him is he needs good route runners with great hands. That's why Young was so good at the end of the 24 season. Thielen and Coker were perfect receivers for him and he had his best games with them. Not having them to start the 25 season hurt. Look at the first 10 games in 25 with a rookie receiver and no Coker and then look at the final 7 games with a more experienced rookie and Coker back and there is a telling difference in Young's performance.

Prior to week 10, Young had 1 game with a QB rating above 100, 2 games with a rating above 90 and 6 games with a rating below 90.

In the last 7 games with Coker back, Young had 3 games with a QB rating above 100, 2 games with a rating above 90 and only 2 games with a rating below 90.

The tools a QB has to work with matter more than their arm strength. 

To go back to Darnold and Stafford, yes they both have great arm strength but neither had much success with that alone. As I already pointed out, Stafford, even with a canon for an arm, only had 4 winning seasons in his first 12 years. It was only when he went to the right environment that he had true success.

[LinvilleGorge]

3 hours ago, 45catfan said:

Franchise QBs feast when things are rolling and the tide that raises boats when things are going sideways.  Bryce isn't that. He's a complimentary player, that's it.  When the defense and STs are on point, he plays loose and it shows.  When we are in a dog fight and things haven't gone our way, he struggles.  It's that simple. He's not a horrible QB, but he's not top tier either.  So the question begs, is this worthy of a second contract?  The answer should be no.  It definitely is my answer.

Bryce will never be a QB that can produce wins largely on his arm.  That's a FRANCHISE QB, any other QB is simply a placeholder at the starter's position until that guy can be found.   At some point the excuses of lack of weapons will be a straw man.  Heck, it's nearly there now.  I mean if he doesn't look even better than last year will we blame it on the TE position?  'Well if Bryce only had a player like Kelce, Kittle or Gronk on this team...'  Are we really going to do that?

 

If we're just objectively looking at his numbers compared to other starting QBs, he actually really is horrible. Bryce's improvement has been moving from a guy who didn't look like he belonged on an NFL roster to graduating to potentially good backup/journeyman stopgap starter level.

[mrcompletely11]

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If we're just objectively looking at his numbers compared to other starting QBs, he actually really is horrible. Bryce's improvement has been moving from a guy who didn't look like he belonged on an NFL roster to graduating to potentially good backup/journeyman stopgap starter level.

"He just needs...........(insert excuse of the day)"

Edited yesterday at 03:24 PM by mrcompletely11

[strato]

Dear Cranky,

I definitely equate his size and shortcomings - mainly with his mediocre arm strength and his difficulty seeing the field and his tippy toe technique - the limitations it puts on the offense … I associate that with losing, yes I do.  Guilty.  

 
 

 

Edited yesterday at 03:31 PM by strato

[strato]

8 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

"He just needs...........(insert excuse of the day)"

It never stops. 

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

"He just needs...........(insert excuse of the day)"

If you plug Bryce onto the Pro Bowl roster you might have a chance to compete for a SB. If he's surrounded by top tier talent with a top tier defense on the other side, a field flipping punter, and a kicker good from 60+ you might have a chance. But that means you basically have to recreate Saban's Bama in the NFL and that's impossible... and Bryce couldn't win a championship in that environment either.

What the Panthers didn't realize when they got so obsessed with his "PG mentality" was that what they were looking st was a "barely checks the box PG". The basketball equivalent of Bryce would be an undersized PG with marginal athleticism who can make the basic plays but adds nothing to the team in terms of elevating the overall team. Not a great shooter, not a great defender, not a great driver. Just a guy who can basically get you into the offense and be a matador on defense. Basically a placeholder while you look to upgrade the PG position. 

[SmokinwithWilly]

As much as I despise Billy B, his philosophy on QBs is how I would approach things if I were a GM. You always keep looking for your next starter. 

He has Bledsoe, who got injured and his backup ended up being the GOAT. Even while he had that going, he kept getting his next guy and developing them. When Brady got hurt, Cassel stepped in and went 11-5 and they missed the wild card by dumb luck. Who knows how far they would have gone if they had gotten in. Jimmy Gs career started in NE. There were others, but he always kept looking. 

You can't be afraid to keep looking for your next starter, but it looks like we're afraid to look for more than a marginal one. If you're going to offer a $25m contract with incentives, that screams marginal QB. It also screams you're just a transition until we find our guy. After a 10 or 11 win season, he's not accepting that offer. And then you're in a Daniel Jones situation. Do you pay for a year of success and pray it wasn't a one year wonder? 

To this point, Bryce has really produced nothing, yet for whatever reason, our FO has not even sniffed at the idea that we need a real QB room with real QBs. Dalton was never starter potential, Plummer was a joke. KP certainly isn't, neither is Grier. 

Our approach to the QB room needs to be one of strength not fear. Bring in guys who can compete or who you think can compete. This is THE elite position, in an elite sport, paid premium salary, where production matters. Either you produce or you can lose your job. It's not mean, it's just the reality of the position. 

And I'm really just tired of our candy ass approach to it. 

[LinvilleGorge]

22 minutes ago, cranky said:

I can't help but think that you are equating physical attributes alone with wins. I don't subscribe to that thought. No one will argue that Young has a strong arm, but he makes up for it in other ways. The real limitation for him is he needs good route runners with great hands. That's why Young was so good at the end of the 24 season. Thielen and Coker were perfect receivers for him and he had his best games with them. Not having them to start the 25 season hurt. Look at the first 10 games in 25 with a rookie receiver and no Coker and then look at the final 7 games with a more experienced rookie and Coker back and there is a telling difference in Young's performance.

Prior to week 10, Young had 1 game with a QB rating above 100, 2 games with a rating above 90 and 6 games with a rating below 90.

In the last 7 games with Coker back, Young had 3 games with a QB rating above 100, 2 games with a rating above 90 and only 2 games with a rating below 90.

The tools a QB has to work with matter more than their arm strength. 

To go back to Darnold and Stafford, yes they both have great arm strength but neither had much success with that alone. As I already pointed out, Stafford, even with a canon for an arm, only had 4 winning seasons in his first 12 years. It was only when he went to the right environment that he had true success.

No. Physical tools alone aren't enough. There are plenty of examples of draft busts to support that. Aost all of them had the physical tools and that wasn't enough.

But Bryce is a perfect example of the opposite. Absolutely elite intangibles aren't enough either. If you simply don't have the physical abilities all the football intelligence and work ethic in the world won't be enough to overcome it. Just look to the sidelines every Sunday. We call those people "coaches".

[mrcompletely11]

2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

No one is saying that Bryce will be a $50 million QB, barring something short of a miraculous jump. I'm just saying that if we are winning somehow with him at the helm, then it would be fuging stupid to dive back into the rookie pool all over again.

Here's what I would offer if I were Morgan and Tepper. $25 million a year for 3 years, each year with up to $10 million in incentives for touchdowns, wins, playoff depth, being under 10 interceptions, completing a full season, passing yardage milestones, taking less than 15 sacks.

 

For starters, and again I am not sure what his capacity is in the media or how connected he is to the team, but I posted above Al Wallace says he is "absolutely" getting 50+ a year and he deserves it.  I obviously strongly disagree with it but it feels like like season when the team is slow leaking info to gauge the temp.

 

Secondly nobody on Gods green earth is going to sign an extension making less than he is making now.  Thats just crazy talk.  

[mrcompletely11]

25 minutes ago, strato said:

Dear Cranky,

I definitely equate his size and shortcomings - mainly with his mediocre arm strength and his difficulty seeing the field and his tippy toe technique - the limitations it puts on the offense … I associate that with losing, yes I do.  Guilty.  

 
 

 

This is the year Goddamnit, this is the off season where he really fixes his mechanics and footwork.

 

Granted I have heard that for years now but this really is the year.  Really.  No more netflix, no more chilling but all work on the mechanics.

[cranky]

20 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If you plug Bryce onto the Pro Bowl roster you might have a chance to compete for a SB. If he's surrounded by top tier talent with a top tier defense on the other side, a field flipping punter, and a kicker good from 60+ you might have a chance. But that means you basically have to recreate Saban's Bama in the NFL and that's impossible... and Bryce couldn't win a championship in that environment either.

We had a QB in that exact spot!

As a rookie, Cam Newton had Steve Smith (PB), Greg Olsen (PB), Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn JR, Deangelo Williams (PB), Jonathan Stewart (PB), Jordan Grossn (PB), Ryan Kalil (PB) on the offensive side and then he had Luke Kuechly (PB), Jon Beason (PB), Thomas Davis (PB), Star Lotulelei, Kawann Short ( PB ),Charles Johnson, Greg Hardy (PB ), Mike Mitchell, Josh Norman (PB) and others that I can't remember right now on the defensive side. Even with all those pro bowlers and talent, he only had 3 winning seasons in his career and he never put consecutive winning seasons together. His best year was his 5th year ( 2015 ) when he went to the SB. That was only his second winning season. He would only have one other winning season the rest of his career. And yet Newton is considered a great QB and is revered on this board. 

If you don't like Young because you don't think he could win even with top tier talent, than what do you say about Newton who did have it and couldn't win.