Talent, Math, and Luck

[Fan01]

There has been a lot of discussion on the boards about creating a "winning" culture in Carolina. About not missing on draft choices and getting quality players. I found a very good article by Dan Le Batard of the Miami Herald and it highlights what I've thought for a long time about winning in the NLF.

You need a certain amount of pure luck and Tom Brady (or other random Superstar QB)

Here's the link to the article.

http://www.miamihera...triots-and.html

Human beings crave control and understanding, even when those things are often just soothing illusions. In sports, this leads us to assign magical powers to the leaders who happen to win, as if they have some secret the rest of us losers don’t. Oracle Bill Belichick allegedly sees things. The idea is that if Belichick and Ireland were putting the very same prospect through the very same workout, Belichick would be able to identify fortune-telling clues that would escape the attention of Ireland.

This is nonsense, of course, and we’ll look back at these mysticisms one day the way we do at Greek gods, but Belichick has something that feels like proof in his past whereas Ireland has little more than a distrust that the Dolphins have spent a decade earning. Here’s an amazing stat: The Golden Calf of Bristol has won more playoff games in the past calendar year than the Dolphins have in the past 12. In terms of fortune-telling, that has a way of making Ireland look like the guy in gypsy-wear charging five dollars for fortunes at the flea market, Belichick versus Ireland feeling like Nostradamus versus Nostradumbass.

But this probably is worth noting, too: The one time since 2004 that the Patriots didn’t make the playoffs was when quarterback Tom Brady was injured and out for the year. Not coincidentally, that is also the one time since 2004 that the Dolphins did. And by the admission of everyone in the Patriots front office, they simply got lucky on Brady. Scott Pioli, formerly Pats player personnel man, used to keep a photo on his desk to remind himself that he isn’t actually any smarter than guys such as Ireland. The photo was of offensive lineman Dave Stachelski, whom the Patriots selected a round before Brady in that draft. He never played a down in the NFL.

Read more here: http://www.miamihera...l#storylink=cpy

The Panthers will get this winning culture but it will come from winning, not the other way around. And we'll start winning because we have the real secret sauce to winning and that's Cammy Cam Juice.

[fieryprophet]

Thank you. I'm sick and tired of everyone around here with their ignorant rants and ravings about this team when they have no goddamn clue what goes into anything regarding football. Just chill out and see what happens, people.

[Fan01]

Thank you. I'm sick and tired of everyone around here with their ignorant rants and ravings about this team when they have no goddamn clue what goes into anything regarding football. Just chill out and see what happens, people.

If it wasn't for you, Mr. Scot, and a few others I don't even think I'd bother posting here sometimes. I love football and talking shop about it but can't stand inconsistant and downright ignorant arguments that ignore facts, context, circumstances, etc. You know, the things that support your argument.

[Pejorative Miscreant]

If it wasn't for you, Mr. Scot, and a few others I don't even think I'd bother posting here sometimes. I love football and talking shop about it but can't stand inconsistant and downright ignorant arguments that ignore facts, context, circumstances, etc. You know, the things that support your argument.

I agree with you here although at times I find this entertaining the way people hijack threads and derail them just for kicks. The grammar police are also in full force here when there is no alternative argument.

BTW, you spelled inconsistent wrong...

[Fan01]

BTW, you spelled inconsistent wrong...

I was testing you. Great job, you passed. :)

[Panthro]

Preseason - Hey I really feel we are on the cusp of something special this year

7-9

Post season - Hey I really feel we are on the cusp of something special next year

rinse repeat.

I've been a fan since 1995 and have done this way too often. Sorry if I don't "buy" into the same thing I always have as easily anymore.

[rayzor]

Preseason - Hey I really feel we are on the cusp of something special this year

7-9

Post season - Hey I really feel we are on the cusp of something special next year

rinse repeat.

I've been a fan since 1995 and have done this way too often. Sorry if I don't "buy" into the same thing I always have as easily anymore.

you're being a bad/unrealistic fan.

drink the kool aid and start finding articles and metrics that say that everything is fine here.

[chknwing]

when u see the same teams reach the playoffs year after year, exactly how much luck is playing a factor in that?

[rayzor]

when u see the same teams reach the playoffs year after year, exactly how much luck is playing a factor in that?

apparently the HC has very little to do with it.

[fieryprophet]

you're being a bad/unrealistic fan.

drink the kool aid and start finding articles and metrics that say that everything is fine here.

Rayzor, there's a distinct difference between "everything is fine" and "FIRE EVERYONE!! RIVERA SUX! JR SHOULD DIE ALREADY!!!"

They're both unrealistic and separate from reality, but the latter is a hell of a lot more prominent of late and more annoying. Perhaps if people made statements like "Rivera struggled a lot this year, and he needs to show real improvement to merit his return" rather than "we're doomed to mediocrity because that asshat got another shot because JR is a cheap bastard" I wouldn't be blasting away at this bullshit.

I know you wanted a new head coach, but for God's sake, the man showed some growth this year, so give him a chance and stop being so downright negative.

[Panthro]

Some teams just get "Lucky!"

Owner Jerry Richardson, speaking to the media for the first time in almost three years and at is his first news conference setting in nine years, called a published report that he or general manager Marty Hurney had been in contact with Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh for weeks completely false. When asked if the team has an interest in Harbaugh specifically, owner Jerry Richardson laughed off that idea, saying, “I’m sure it’s a nice man, I’d be happy to talk to him. I have not thought about talking to him as a head coach…. But I would be nice and cordial to him if I saw him.”

[Delhommey]

The perception is that Belichick stockpiles draft picks so he can use his super-secret powers to find value late where others can’t see it, but the truth is that Belichick knows there is very little science to picking Lotto numbers, so he is just tilting the math in his favor by buying more tickets, giving himself more chances to get lucky. Helps, too, that he already won the lottery once, and at the game’s most important position.

This is true but it also gives Belichick the ability to take more risks in his picks like taking a talented TE coming off a very serious back injury. Or sending a 4th round draft pick to the Raiders for a troubled and aging WR. Or burning a 6th rounder on a back up QB from Michigan.

He's also excellent at gauging the draft. While normally he trades down to get more "lottery tickets", last year it became apparent that moving up in the draft had suddenly gotten dirt cheap. What does he do? Moves up 7 slots on each of his two first round picks (one gotten from NO last year) to grab the two guys he wanted for the low price of a 3rd and 4th rounder. Both Jones and Hightower are starters on his improved defense.

Also, as is well know, there are no loyalty extensions. On the downside of your career you are traded if you can be or cut if you can't (unless your name is Tom Brady).

Compare this to the Panthers and their tendency to offer lucrative contracts to "core" players (resulting in cap hell) and trade away draft picks for players falling down the boards and for players ownership feels can shore up local ticket sales.

And you can't say that's all Hurney.

[Fox007]

There will be a lot less negativity when there is a lot more winning...and it's not a particularly hard concept to grasp.

132-156 is the only stat I need to understand that there is a problem.

Only 1 remaining constant.

[fieryprophet]

This is true but it also gives Belichick the ability to take more risks in his picks like taking a talented TE coming off a very serious back injury. Or sending a 4th round draft pick to the Raiders for a troubled and aging WR. Or burning a 6th rounder on a back up QB from Michigan.

He's also excellent at gauging the draft. While normally he trades down to get more "lottery tickets", last year it became apparent that moving up in the draft had suddenly gotten dirt cheap. What does he do? Moves up 7 slots on each of his two first round picks (one gotten from NO last year) to grab the two guys he wanted for the low price of a 3rd and 4th rounder. Both Jones and Hightower are starters on his improved defense.

Also, as is well know, there are no loyalty extensions. On the downside of your career you are traded if you can be or cut if you can't (unless your name is Tom Brady).

Compare this to the Panthers and their tendency to offer lucrative contracts to "core" players (resulting in cap hell) and trade away draft picks for players falling down the boards and for players ownership feels can shore up local ticket sales.

And you can't say that's all Hurney.

Belichick's draft record up for about a four year stretch until 2010 was actually pretty terrible. He's an outstanding coach, but I'm not certain his personnel evaluation is better than average.