Talent, Math, and Luck

[mountainpantherfan2]

I've posted this before a couple years back. Do you know what team had the worst start as a franshise going 24 years without a playoff win and only 2 playoff appearances during that span?

Answer the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were the originals Raiders. They sucked and for a long time. What changed? Nothing really. It just all finally came together. There isn't an issue until the owner/team stops trying to win. But as long as he is trying to win its just trail and error.

[Fan01]

just because you get paid to analyze football (and don't make the mistake of saying you're the only one who does) doesn't mean you know more than anyone in here or that you are more of an expert than anyone.

based on what i've seen in the big picture, i just have no faith in his ability to do anything than make an effort at the end of the season to try and save his job. you don't agree with it? get over it.

That first paragraph makes me wonder why I'm even bothering to respond but you post a lot and seem to sum up the attitude about the Panthers and Rivera that I find so disagreeable.

So, I'm asking what is this big picture you've seen and why do you have no faith in his ability. Please don't give me quasi ethereal answers like, he's a bad game manager and can't lead. If that's you opinion then give me specifics on why you feel that way. Give me example to support your argument.

I'm not blind to the mistakes the Panthers and Rivera have made but it's the whole black and white, he's sucks, we're doomed, we're one of the worst teams in the NFL with little hope to fix anything due to a losing culture and bad meddling owner.

[rayzor]

That first paragraph makes me wonder why I'm even bothering to respond but you post a lot and seem to sum up the attitude about the Panthers and Rivera that I find so disagreeable.

So, I'm asking what is this big picture you've seen and why do you have no faith in his ability. Please don't give me quasi ethereal answers like, he's a bad game manager and can't lead. If that's you opinion then give me specifics on why you feel that way. Give me example to support your argument.

I'm not blind to the mistakes the Panthers and Rivera have made but it's the whole black and white, he's sucks, we're doomed, we're one of the worst teams in the NFL with little hope to fix anything due to a losing culture and bad meddling owner.

you must not be reading much of what I've said because I've said it over and over.

there are several things but the biggest thing is end of game management. I'd write it all out for you but I've already don it a lot...probably in this thread even.

it all boils down to what is a perfect example...not the only one, but the best one...the atlanta game.

your offense has been torched all day, your offense has been doing pretty well and you have one of the best short yardage guys in the league in cam and one of the best backfields in the country...it's fourth and one and you punt it away with time left on the clock. that is a mistake that costs more games than it saves. the rules protecting the deep pass make it very easy for a team to go the length of the field in a very short time, or at least far enough to get a FG.

that might have been a good call 10 or even 5 years ago, but today it's not. when you have a lead its very easy for a team to come back. if you want to win, you do one of two things, you either score more than the other team can keep up with or you keep them from scoring and the best way to do that...the only way to ensure it is by keeping the ball out of their hands and keeping it in yours.

teams get too comfortable with a league and too confident in their defenses ability to protect it. just this weekend it cost the broncos their game and almost cost the falcons theirs. its a flaw that most defensive coaches have and its one that rivera has. it has cost us games and will continue to as long as he feels comfortable with any lead and/or his defenses ability to stop them.

[rayzor]

crap i just wrote it again.

[TheMaulClaw]

Yeah it's not luck....sure there is element of it in games. But if this is true for football then the same could be said for college football. Look at Saban....Alabama is not lucky they're good, they didn't luck out on all their recruits they developed them. I understand that there is more "parity" in the NFL, and maybe this article is solely focused on a talent evaluation perspective. But the problem that we've had in Carolina is development. Their seems to be a lot of players that don't develop well here then go somewhere else and all of a sudden.....developed. Sure, there are a lot of "x factors" in player development specifically from a player psychology perspective but to say that it's nothing but luck is a bit off. In the 6th and 7th rounds.....sure you cherry pick talent there and hope it works out, but you have to maximize development because that's what raises the odds. But there wasn't a whole lot of luck in Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, or Peyton Manning when he was drafted.

[iamhubby1]

We were successful under Polian, who was a football guy. We struggled under Hurndog, who was a FO guy. We have gotten back to our roots with Gettlemen, who is a football guy.

We blew this team up then signed our core to ridiculous money, which limited our options to upgrade the talent. Don't get me wrong, there is talent. Just not enough to compete with the top teams. Those are some big obstacles to overcome.

Rivera has admitted his mistakes, and that he still has some learning to do. But hell, most coaches can say that. But, I saw a really good Panther team the last half of the year. Better play and playcalling, better disipline with fewer silf inflicted wounds, and most importantly a team and coaching staff playing to win.

Throw in Cam and the future looks good to me. And GOOOOOO CATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Building a winning team is the easy part, winning it all is when luck comes in. We are building what I think is the right team. Gonna be fun watching the results.

[TheMaulClaw]

We were successful under Polian, who was a football guy. We struggled under Hurndog, who was a FO guy. We have gotten back to our roots with Gettlemen, who is a football guy.

We blew this team up then signed our core to ridiculous money, which limited our options to upgrade the talent. Don't get me wrong, there is talent. Just not enough to compete with the top teams. Those are some big obstacles to overcome.

Rivera has admitted his mistakes, and that he still has some learning to do. But hell, most coaches can say that. But, I saw a really good Panther team the last half of the year. Better play and playcalling, better disipline with fewer silf inflicted wounds, and most importantly a team and coaching staff playing to win.

Throw in Cam and the future looks good to me. And GOOOOOO CATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Building a winning team is the easy part, winning it all is when luck comes in. We are building what I think is the right team. Gonna be fun watching the results.

I can agree with this, but it's very important that our next OC capitalizes on the momentum we gained at the end of the year instead of blowing it all up and sending us back to the stone age.

[Panthro]

Do you all think Fox could've developed Brady?

[Kevin Greene]

Do you all think Fox could've developed Brady?

That's a good one.

How about, how much would Cam already have accomplished if he was drafted by Harbaugh in Frisco?

[rayzor]

That's a good one.

How about, how much would Cam already have accomplished if he was drafted by Harbaugh in Frisco?

cam goes to san fran last year and they're in the superbowl.

harbaugh comes here with cam and we're in the playoffs.

[Panthro]

Zoinks!

Or Harbaugh/Luck in Carolina

[rayzor]

Do you all think Fox could've developed Brady?

fox would have gone back to bledsoe.

[Kevin Greene]

fox would have gone back to bledsoe.

No man, Testeverde.

[GRWatcher]

Yeah it's not luck....sure there is element of it in games. But if this is true for football then the same could be said for college football. Look at Saban....Alabama is not lucky they're good, they didn't luck out on all their recruits they developed them. I understand that there is more "parity" in the NFL, and maybe this article is solely focused on a talent evaluation perspective. But the problem that we've had in Carolina is development. Their seems to be a lot of players that don't develop well here then go somewhere else and all of a sudden.....developed. Sure, there are a lot of "x factors" in player development specifically from a player psychology perspective but to say that it's nothing but luck is a bit off. In the 6th and 7th rounds.....sure you cherry pick talent there and hope it works out, but you have to maximize development because that's what raises the odds. But there wasn't a whole lot of luck in Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, or Peyton Manning when he was drafted.

I agree with this statement, it happens quite often especially with the defense. And while personalities always play a role between coaches & players, I do think there's a coaching philosophy that Rivera is changing now. Teaching. I remember some of Fox's first words were about hiring coaches that are good teachers. Similar words were spoken by Rivera. Teaching is a damn good thing but it should not be the focus of coaching. Because talking about teaching assumes that there is something you don't know. Teaching and development are two different things. Development puts the focus on building and improving not on learning. Because the players are paid to already know. And I believe that is why we are looking for so many coaches now. A change in philosophy.

I also believe that luck does play a large part in football. Heck, it does in any sport. Luck with the weather, the coin toss (lol), what refs you have for a game, the bus ride, the draft, etc. But good preparation will overcome the impact luck has on any game and that's where the better teams excel.