Reach Shmeach

[La Pantera]

You could say that about any reciever in this draft. There isn't a superstar right out of the gate. What really gets me excited about Allen is;

1. He produced with a QB who is at the level of The Golden Calf of Bristol or worse.

2. He lined up at a variety of different positions/ he is versatile.

3. He's big and is pretty shifty for a big guy.

4. The most important aspect of his game, which people undervalue. He is a great dude. Smart, Hard-working, film nut, leader and great teammate. A lot of people don't care about this, but when you add up all of this he is the total package receiver in this draft compared to everyone else.

I think Allen has just as good of a chance as any reciever in this draft to take over for Smitty.

A lot of people are timid because of the 4.71 40. He may drop to the second because of this and would be a steal at 44. I would be happy with the pick, but that said. I want DT/S in the first and WR/OG in the second. But what the fug do I know.

I just don't see a true #1 when I look at Allen. Can he be an upgrade at #2 WR? That's Definitely possible. But as I've stated, we need a real deep threat. Someone Opposing defenses are scared of. Someone who can get behind the D and score everytime they touch the ball. Smitty is the only real threat to do that at WR. And he's not quite what he used to be. Id take a few receivers over Allen.

[panthers55]

Pat Kirwin talks about this every year when he hears people talking about reaching. He says that if you pick 14 for example and don't pick again until 44 then you pick at 14 whoever you want if you don't think they will be there at 44. it isn't a reach if that is who you want and they aren't going to be there. As far as trading down, that is fine as long as if you trade down five spots from 14 to 19 you are willing for the top five rated guys still left on your board when you were supposed to draft at 14 to be gone when you draft at 19. You could be saying trade down to get this guy because he is a reach at 14 and the 3 guys you wanted could be all gone which totally blows the whole reason you traded down. You might get a sixth round pick but you also better be happy with who is on the board at 19 regardless of who you wanted. Otherwise you take who you want at 14.

[AceBoogie]

I'm driving the DeAndre Hopkins bandwagon

[Gucci Mane]

If the right OL falls, we take him.. Otherwise i feel l like richardson will be the guy. our 44th is more important tbh.

[Ricky Spanish]

I'm officially on the hopkins bandwagon in the first.

[MHS831]

I think it funny that Rhodes or Trufant are not in the discussion.

This draft is going to be very interesting.. I am looking forward to it because we do not know how Gettlemen is going to navigate it. I have confidence in him, but I am very curious.

[MHS831]

We have not addressed RG in free agency, but we have addressed every other position of need. Just sayin.

[nickzz]

i just want to know who is the established authority on who is a reach or not?

wat

it's a matter of opinion... just like all the favored prospects

[jungleking]

It's not just a matter of opinion. It's a matter of consensus opinion, and yes, there's a difference.

Let's say you really like Hopkins, someone that apparently everyone on this board fell in love with. His value comes from his skillset: he was a productive college football player, and he's got natural wide receiver skills: his hands, his route running, and his ability to high-point the ball. He's drawing comparisons to Roddy White for those reason. However, his timed forty speed is a half second slower than Roddy's, as is his shuttle, and his broad and vertical jump are measurably lower as well. In short, he's a good receiver who is also a below-average athlete for the position.

The market for that asset class (skilled guys who aren't eye-poppingly athletic) isn't that competitive. If the consensus opinion is that he's worth a pick in the mid-twenties, then spending the fourteenth pick on him amounts to overpaying by about ten picks. The gap between those picks represents 360 points on the trade value chart, which is equivalent to the value of the 22nd pick in the second round.

Now, if your front office values him significantly higher than the rest of the league, you can try to trade back to recoup the value that you're losing, or you can just pick him and forfeit the ability to get that value back. But when you reach for a lower-cost asset, you're effectively devaluing your pick, hurting your ability to improve your team.

Throwing out the value crap, it's just not as smart to risk so much on your opinion when there's a whole group of people that generally collectively get it right. Higher picks tend to be better players, and higher picks tend to be regarded as superior by other teams, draft 'experts,' and everyone else. Groupthink is often a bad thing, but works pretty well as a predictive tool.

[rayzor]

Pat Kirwin talks about this every year when he hears people talking about reaching. He says that if you pick 14 for example and don't pick again until 44 then you pick at 14 whoever you want if you don't think they will be there at 44. it isn't a reach if that is who you want and they aren't going to be there. As far as trading down, that is fine as long as if you trade down five spots from 14 to 19 you are willing for the top five rated guys still left on your board when you were supposed to draft at 14 to be gone when you draft at 19. You could be saying trade down to get this guy because he is a reach at 14 and the 3 guys you wanted could be all gone which totally blows the whole reason you traded down. You might get a sixth round pick but you also better be happy with who is on the board at 19 regardless of who you wanted. Otherwise you take who you want at 14.

this is kind of how i approach it.

you like who you like and damn the draftnik pseudo-experts rankings. if you like the guy and you don't think that they are going to be there the next round then you take him. if you like a couple guys and you think that one is likely to be there next round and the other isn't based on what you've heard from other FOs (not the draftniks and mockers), then you take the one you think isn't going to be there next round.

if there's a cluster of guys at a certain point that you like then you just take into consideration who would be able to help you more in the short term and/or long term. what you don't do is take into consideration what the "experts" have as their rankings and worry about taking someone at 14 that those guys thought should be at 20something.

teams have access to a lot more tape and conversations and workouts than draftniks do. if the panthers take someone at 14 that most on the outside think should have a late first to second round grade...i think that i'll be going with the team's opinion. i know right out of the gate that i'm working with a lot less info than the FO is so i'm not going to be dogmatic about the way i think things should be nor am i going to hold the opinions of countless draftniks and their rankings above that of gettleman and co. the only thing i know is not to rule out different players and positions.

[CRA]

I've been thinking lately how all the prospects projected to go around 14 don't appeal to me.

Richardson

Vacarro

Austin

Patterson

Mocks usually have us taking one of these guys. I know I don't speak for everyone here, but choosing between these 4 are a bit like choosing which STD you'd rather have on your nuts. I much rather choose between these guys:

Allen

Hopkins

Cyprien

Sly

Fluker

The consensus is that these guys are a bit of a reach at 14. Well you know what? Fug that. Let's say you really, really like Hopkins -- you think he's the best WR in this draft (incidentally, he's the only prospect that visited the Panthers twice; unless you want to count Allen's workout at Proelific Park a visit). How far would you be willing to trade down? Well hell, even dropping past the Rams at 16 would make me uneasy. You just don't know how other teams rate players.

What am I trying to say? I'm saying that there's a good chance that the Panthers will stay at 14 and 'reach' for someone like Hopkins. When that happens, I'll be prepared and fine with it. You guys should jump on board.

Peace.

I agree my kiwi friend...

[rayzor]

It's not just a matter of opinion. It's a matter of consensus opinion, and yes, there's a difference.

.

.

.

Throwing out the value crap, it's just not as smart to risk so much on your opinion when there's a whole group of people that generally collectively get it right. Higher picks tend to be better players, and higher picks tend to be regarded as superior by other teams, draft 'experts,' and everyone else. Groupthink is often a bad thing, but works pretty well as a predictive tool.

the problem i have with that is who is making up the consensus?

is it draftniks working with imperfect and incomplete information as to what teams have actually been looking at and who they've been talking to and how they plan to use the player or how players might fit with their scheme or players? in that case i don't think that it is good to rely on "groupthink" when that group think is generally talking out of their asses and essentially just copying each other.

i just don't put much stock into what the "experts" are saying, esp. when most of what they are doing is just copying what someone else says and/or trying to get retweeted or get people looking at your stuff.

consensus opinion from outsiders might have a pretty decent idea of the general area that someone might be drafted (and by general, i mean within a round or a half a round and maybe within the top 5), but overall there really is no consensus worth paying attention to. teams aren't going to care what the consensus says is the right pick for them or what is too high or too low for a certain player and the consensus don't know how team's draftboards are looking. they are just guessing. considering all the people mocking richardson to us when we haven't even met with the guy, i wouldn't even consider it educated.

the expert rankings are all pretty fluid as well and usually when they do their mocks they are just plain lazy with most teams. they don't take into consideration what teams are looking at or what they've done or who they've talked to. they just go by rankings that they've seen others do or that they made up and just go with the easiest picks...like TE was for us for so many years and DT is now.

[koolkatluke]

the problem i have with that is who is making up the consensus?

is it draftniks working with imperfect and incomplete information as to what teams have actually been looking at and who they've been talking to and how they plan to use the player or how players might fit with their scheme or players? in that case i don't think that it is good to rely on "groupthink" when that group think is generally talking out of their asses and essentially just copying each other.

i just don't put much stock into what the "experts" are saying, esp. when most of what they are doing is just copying what someone else says and/or trying to get retweeted or get people looking at your stuff.

consensus opinion from outsiders might have a pretty decent idea of the general area that someone might be drafted (and by general, i mean within a round or a half a round and maybe within the top 5), but overall there really is no consensus worth paying attention to. teams aren't going to care what the consensus says is the right pick for them or what is too high or too low for a certain player and the consensus don't know how team's draftboards are looking. they are just guessing. considering all the people mocking richardson to us when we haven't even met with the guy, i wouldn't even consider it educated.

the expert rankings are all pretty fluid as well and usually when they do their mocks they are just plain lazy with most teams. they don't take into consideration what teams are looking at or what they've done or who they've talked to. they just go by rankings that they've seen others do or that they made up and just go with the easiest picks...like TE was for us for so many years and DT is now.

Razor just a question. Who do you go to if not these experts (who's opinion you don't care for) for your draft information?

And since you think its a flawed system then would it be a good idea to take Duke Williams in the 1st?

[jungleking]

the problem i have with that is who is making up the consensus?

is it draftniks working with imperfect and incomplete information as to what teams have actually been looking at and who they've been talking to and how they plan to use the player or how players might fit with their scheme or players? in that case i don't think that it is good to rely on "groupthink" when that group think is generally talking out of their asses and essentially just copying each other.

i just don't put much stock into what the "experts" are saying, esp. when most of what they are doing is just copying what someone else says and/or trying to get retweeted or get people looking at your stuff.

consensus opinion from outsiders might have a pretty decent idea of the general area that someone might be drafted (and by general, i mean within a round or a half a round and maybe within the top 5), but overall there really is no consensus worth paying attention to. teams aren't going to care what the consensus says is the right pick for them or what is too high or too low for a certain player and the consensus don't know how team's draftboards are looking. they are just guessing. considering all the people mocking richardson to us when we haven't even met with the guy, i wouldn't even consider it educated.

the expert rankings are all pretty fluid as well and usually when they do their mocks they are just plain lazy with most teams. they don't take into consideration what teams are looking at or what they've done or who they've talked to. they just go by rankings that they've seen others do or that they made up and just go with the easiest picks...like TE was for us for so many years and DT is now.

The experts don't matter. The guys that are making the big boards, the scouts, the GM's, those guys use most of the same processes and value most of the same traits. Like I said, it's about skillsets: big, tall quarterbacks, incredibly athletic receivers, pass rushers with great size/speed combinations. The traits that are valued in the NFL are valued that high for a reason, and players that have those traits are valued higher. It's why someone like Hopkins, who is only a decent athlete, probably won't go as high as someone like Tavon Austin.