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If Brad Nortman doesn't get the gameball, something is wrong with the world.
By
Growl,
in Carolina Panthers
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By CPantherKing · Posted
I've explained this in more detail before. Briefly, there's a process to quickly evaluate a QB. Also, there's a type of QB that excels at a higher rate than others at the pro level. After that, it's about keeping the QBs flowing through the system. 1st round QBs are not superior, they just get more reps and game time. You can find just as many competitive QBs that are 3rd day or undrafted if you give them the same reps and game time. Now, to dive deeper for fun. To understand this further, there are rare 1st round QB exceptions, but they must come with a pro pedigree and proven success in college. There's only 1 to 3 of these QBs every decade (John Elway 1983, Peyton Manning 1998, Eli Manning 2004, Andrew Luck 2012, Jared Goff 2016, Patrick Mahomes 2017, and Joe Burrow 2020. That's 1 of every 20 1st round QBs (5% of historical 1st round QBs in modern draft era). When you look at 1st rd QB success, eliminate these rare ones from your samples because they are trained to be championship QBs. 100% of them have taken their team to a championship. Also, the Bill Walsh tree knows the formula for building an offense and finding a QB QUICKLY. The question is why haven't others figured it out & continue to waste draft capital on QBs? Based on my QB evaluation system, here's the QBs I had slotted for the Panthers over the past 10 drafts. Patrick Mahomes, Brad Kaaya, Cooper Rush, Lamar Jackson, Brett Rypien, Tyler Huntley, Jalen Hurts, Shane Buechele, Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, Aqeel Glass, Jack Coan, Aidan O'Connell, Tanner McKee, Spencer Rattler, Devin Leary, Sam Hartman, Quinn Ewers. The ones in bold were the ones that rated the highest for pro championship qualities (probable franchise QBs). Obviously, we didn't need them all, but it's about flow of pro championship qualities shown in college and not the most physically gifted. Also, there are a few QBs every decade who have the qualities, but never get a chance. If you're talent evaluation/QB system is good enough, you can go get 2 to 3 of them tomorrow to show what they can do when their name is called. I expect 1 of every 6 QBs to be worthy of being a franchise QB. There's strict rules to the depth chart qualifications, rotation, minimum KPIs and cuts/trades for me. Panthers have had Collins, Beuerlein, Weinke, Delhomme, Clausen, Newton, Bridgewater, Darnold, and Young. If you include Lewis, Peete, Allen and Mayfield, the Panthers have had 3 of 13 championship level franchise QBs. 1 of 5 (1 of 6 if you don't count Collins). It's the same for every franchise. The difference is a certain coaching tree knows how to move them through quicker than all the others while building defense with the most valuable draft picks. For Walsh, Montana(3rd rd) was his 3rd QB and Young(trade) was his 12th (9 yrs). He had a process allowing him to move through them rapidly. For Holmgren, Favre(trade) was his 4th QB and Hasselbeck(6th rd/trade) was his 15th QB (10 yrs). Neither of them settled on or tried to solve the problems of their 1st QB. For Andy Reid, McNabb(1st rd) was his 2nd QB and Mahomes(1st rd) was his 15th QB (19yrs). For John Harbaugh, Flacco(1st rd) was his 1st and Jackson(1st rd) was his 8th (11 yrs). For Sean McVay, Goff(1st rd) was his 1st and Stafford(trade) was his 5th (5yrs). Reid was the slow and stubborn one who wouldn't move on from his QB & had to wait nearly 2 decades to grab a QB that is the rare exception. I present this to show how 1st round picks are wasted on QBs, and it's the process fitting the QB to the system that generates success. Championship leader qualities and a process to move through QBs for a single coach's offense until you find a winner is the formula. The ages of these QBs from the Walsh tree when they won their first SB: Montana(25), Young(33), Favre(27), Mahomes(24), Flacco(27), and Stafford (33). Mahomes is the only sports pedigree QB exception on this list. QBs selected in the top 20 picks that weren't a pedigree QB were discarded by the team that drafted them. It will continue to be the same for the QB position as the dynamics of an offense from coach to field to team to clutch moments are not going to change. The combines/draft is just a media show that will only highlight the rare pedigree exceptions at QB for the NFL. You can line up ANY 12 QBs demonstrating success in college with the pro championship level qualities right now & you'll find a couple franchise QBs. Overrated arm strength & athleticism mean absolutely nothing for success at the pro level (that's a bonus). If they had enough of the tangibles to consistently succeed in college, it will translate to the pros. Currently, the Panthers are on QB #1 being shoved into Canales' system. Hooker is Canales' 4th QB (5th if you count Bryce Perkins). The Panthers only need to get Young out of the way and start giving these QBs a shot. If a GM can't fit a QB with the offensive coach in 6 QBs, then it's time to move to a new GM. For Canales' system, I'd go with Cooper Rush(trade), Tyler Huntley(available/ps), Desmond Ridder(available), Jack Coan(available), Aqeel Glass(available), Tanner McKee(trade), Sam Hartman(available/ps), Devin Leary(available), Hendon Hooker(on roster), Clayton Tune(available/ps), Chris Oladokun(available/ps), DJ Uiagalelei(available/ps) and Shane Buechele(available/ps). No particular order. This just demonstrates the winning process at QB to build a winning team. 7 of these QBs have been chosen by SB winning coaches. The point is to line them up and have one head coach with one offensive system move through them as quickly as possible until one of them holds on to the starting position with success and claims the franchise QB title. I expect the top 20 1st round picks for a franchise QB is the only way crowd to attack this and the Bill Walsh tree. Likely going to tell you that 6th round & later QBs as well as the Walsh tree are the sole outliers. We can count more 6th round and later championship QBs(13) than we can the 1st round pedigree QBs(7). As for the other 47 SB QBs, only 15 QBs have been drafted in the top 20 and led their first team to the SB. The best return is the pedigree 1st round QB, but this is rare. As for top 20 pick QBs that aren't pedigree, you're better off running 6th round and later QBs through the offensive system as quick as possible while spending that top 20 1st round pick on core defense or the rare dual threat skill position player. I don't expect the typical media driven fan to agree. I know SB winning coaches keep signing my college QB targets. -
By Jay Roosevelt · Posted
Best QB I've seen this year so far, with all due respect to Allen and Jackson. -
By PNW_PantherMan · Posted
What’s with the chargers run game? They were good last year
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