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Carolina AT Cincinnati Vegas Odds

jamos14

By jamos14,
in Carolina Panthers

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jamos14 Experienced

jamos14

Posted
Posted

I know everyone is still celebrating the great win against Chicago.  I'm also sure that many are excited/anxious/(insert emotion) about the coming game in Cincy.  Will we build on the win vs the Bears and prove that Weeks 3 & 4 were a big anamoly?  I certainly hope so.

 

Vegas doesn't agree. 

 

 

Cincinnati -7  O/U 44

 

 

This is the second largest spread out of all games next week.  Only game larger is Denver -7.5 at NYJ.

 

I'm pretty shocked the Bengals are 7 point favorites. I would've guessed 2.5 to 3.5

 

I think this line will come down as the public tends to overreact after a blowout loss meaning most of the money will go on Carolina.

 

I'm not sure we win the game but I think we've closed the door on the two blowout games  and will cover certainly.

 

I'd expect a close game with a FG difference.

 

 

 

 

 

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Cary Kollins Experienced

Cary Kollins

Posted
Posted

And now the prerequisite explanation for how Vegas handicaps games...

 

 

Vegas is not prediciting that Cincinnati will beat the Panthers by 7 points. The only thing Vegas cares about is making money. Vegas ultimately wants to have an equal number of bets for both teams, and that is how they derive the spreads.  The point spread may change a number of times up until the game starts, based on how many bets are going for one team or the other.

 

Take this past weekend for example. On Friday the Bengals/Pats line was Even, meaning there was no spread either way and you basically could pick whichever team you thought would win, aka a "pick'em". 

 

A lot of bettors put their money on the Bengals, which in turn moved the spread towards the Bengals favor all the way to -3 by the time the game started.  So if you were like me and bet on the game at the last minute, you had to take the Bengals as 3 point favorites, which means the Bengals had to win by more than 3 points for me to win.  Dumb bet by me.

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4Corners Grand Master

4Corners

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All things considered, 7 is a lot for an NFL game. It will probably go down during the week - especially if there's a lot of people taking the Panthers and the points. 

 

Also, I want to point out and remind everyone that the point of the professional bookmakers in Vegas is not to determine who is a "favorite" or an "underdog" but their job is so to establish a fair money line that can encourage gambling on both sides. 

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jamos14 Experienced

jamos14

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Any time the line moves like that it makes me think someone is setting up a huge bet the other way.. yes I do think there are people who can move the line. Someone cleaned up on the patriots

 

Agree. Lines don't usually change that much.  Maybe 1 point, hardly ever 3.

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TuckerMax25 Newbie

TuckerMax25

Posted
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parlay odds actually pay you less than your true odds of picking consecutive games correctly. With that said I do parlays for fun. Best ever was 2008 while deployed 7 team parlay was either 50 or 100 bet and won 5500. I usually don't bet until about week 7 to see what teams are but this year is crazy so idk about betting at all lol
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