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Fournette in the first? What bothers me

CRA

By CRA,
in Carolina Panthers

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CRA Grand Master

CRA

Posted
Posted

Okay, so I have obviously never been big on over investing in RBs in today's NFL.  I have always believed in cheap guys running behind good OLs is the best option.  Now a lot of people are calling Fournette a once in a decade type player and all that jazz...but I still don't think the value is there at 8 and would prefer a RB later (in a DEEP RB draft).

Here are my concerns:

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 5 teams with top 20 rush defense:

Results: 0-5 record, 396 rush yards and 1 TD (average of 79 rush yards per game and 0.2 rush TDs per game

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 8 teams with a top 50 rush defense:

Results: 1-7 record, 724 rush yards, 3 TDs (average of 90 rush yards per game and 0.37 TDs per game)

Now Fournette wrecked shop and humiliated bad rush defenses.  Against the remaining opponents with rush defenses ranked 67th-126th (opponents average out at a 87 rush defense average)his team went 11-0 and he averaged 188 yards and 2.3 TDs per game.  The Fournette in these games is the one people rave about.  Don't get me wrong it still counts.  Good running against the college football field counts regardless and there are lots of examples of why you don't need a good resume vs elite defenses to prove your worth but I think it is worth discussing.

now let's take a random RB who people don't really care about in this deep draft and keep in mind this is not an endorsment of him.  Wayne Gallman of Clemson.  Now obviously he isn't the focal piece in the O.  Apples and oranges in regards to roles and RBs. Gallman has faced 10 top 20 rush defenses (Clemson has gone 8-2) and he accumulated 743 yards and 8 TDs with an average of 74 rush yards per game and 0.80 TDs per game.

Could Gallman play a bunch of really weak defenses as a featured piece and accumulate big numbers? Probably.

Does that make him comparable to Fournette? No, but Clemson is getting just as much (actually more production) from their RB vs top 20 rush defenses than Fournette is giving LSU.   

So does Carolina want to use a first round pick on a Fournette when likely a lesser pick can give them the same production? Cam is our franchise QB....so we aren't looking for an Adrian Peterson to gameplan everything around.  We don't have a game manager QB. We are looking for a complimentary piece not an offense.

I just don't think the value is there with a RB.  If Fournette was a once in a decade RB...his games vs the best rush defenses wouldn't match that of good roleplaying RBs about to enter with him IMO.  

So in conclusion, Fournette is by far the best runner in the draft. I am not endorsing Gallman as the pick. We need live young legs.  But, I think given how we don't want to be a 2 yard and a cloud of dust offense....we can get better value later.  Just like at Clemson, they get the same rush production against top rush defenses out of a lesser RB (yet more diverse RB if you were to open it up and talk about pass catching ability)

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TheMostInterestingMan Mentor

TheMostInterestingMan

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10 minutes ago, CRA said:

Okay, so I have obviously never been big on over investing in RBs in today's NFL.  I have always believed in cheap guys running behind good OLs is the best option.  Now a lot of people are calling Fournette a once in a decade type player and all that jazz...but I still don't think the value is there at 9 and would prefer a RB later (in a DEEP RB draft).

Here are my concerns:

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 5 teams with top 20 rush defense:

Results: 0-5 record, 396 rush yards and 1 TD (average of 79 rush yards per game and 0.2 rush TDs per game

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 8 teams with a top 50 rush defense:

Results: 1-7 record, 724 rush yards, 3 TDs (average of 90 rush yards per game and 0.37 TDs per game)

Now Fournette wrecked shop and humiliated bad rush defenses.  Against the remaining opponents with rush defenses ranked 67th-126th (opponents average out at a 87 rush defense average)his team went 11-0 and he averaged 188 yards and 2.3 TDs per game.  The Fournette in these games is the one people rave about.  Don't get me wrong it still counts.  Good running against the college football field counts regardless and there are lots of examples of why you don't need a good resume vs elite defenses to prove your worth but I think it is worth discussing.

now let's take a random RB who people don't really care about in this deep draft and keep in mind this is not an endorsment of him.  Wayne Gallman of Clemson.  Now obviously he isn't the focal piece in the O.  Apples and oranges in regards to roles and RBs. Gallman has faced 10 top 20 rush defenses (Clemson has gone 8-2) and he accumulated 743 yards and 8 TDs with an average of 74 rush yards per game and 0.80 TDs per game.

Could Gallman play a bunch of really weak defenses as a featured piece and accumulate big numbers? Probably.

Does that make him comparable to Fournette? No, but Clemson is getting just as much (actually more production) from their RB vs top 20 rush defenses than Fournette is giving LSU.   

So does Carolina want to use a first round pick on a Fournette when likely a lesser pick can give them the same production? Cam is our franchise QB....so we aren't looking for an Adrian Peterson to gameplan everything around.  We don't have a game manager QB. We are looking for a complimentary piece not an offense.

I just don't think the value is there with a RB.  If Fournette was a once in a decade RB...his games vs the best rush defenses wouldn't match that of good roleplaying RBs about to enter with him IMO.  

So in conclusion, Fournette is by far the best runner in the draft. I am not endorsing Gallman as the pick. We need live young legs.  But, I think given how we don't want to be a 2 yard and a cloud of dust offense....we can get better value later.  Just like at Clemson, they get the same rush production against top rush defenses out of a lesser RB (yet more diverse RB if you were to open it up and talk about pass catching ability)

Spot on. I like Fournette but I feel the same and this is great analysis. If we could get him in the mid 20's I would be up for it, but 8 seems just a bit too high for me as well. 

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ncsportsfan1234 Newbie

ncsportsfan1234

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Posted
1 minute ago, CRA said:

Okay, so I have obviously never been big on over investing in RBs in today's NFL.  I have always believed in cheap guys running behind good OLs is the best option.  Now a lot of people are calling Fournette a once in a decade type player and all that jazz...but I still don't think the value is there at 9 and would prefer a RB later (in a DEEP RB draft).

Here are my concerns:

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 5 teams with top 20 rush defense:

Results: 0-5 record, 396 rush yards and 1 TD (average of 79 rush yards per game and 0.2 rush TDs per game

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 8 teams with a top 50 rush defense:

Results: 1-7 record, 724 rush yards, 3 TDs (average of 90 rush yards per game and 0.37 TDs per game)

Now Fournette wrecked shop and humiliated bad rush defenses.  Against the remaining opponents with rush defenses ranked 67th-126th (opponents average out at a 87 rush defense average)his team went 11-0 and he averaged 188 yards and 2.3 TDs per game.  The Fournette in these games is the one people rave about.  Don't get me wrong it still counts.  Good running against the college football field counts regardless and there are lots of examples of why you don't need a good resume vs elite defenses to prove your worth but I think it is worth discussing.

now let's take a random RB who people don't really care about in this deep draft and keep in mind this is not an endorsment of him.  Wayne Gallman of Clemson.  Now obviously he isn't the focal piece in the O.  Apples and oranges in regards to roles and RBs. Gallman has faced 10 top 20 rush defenses (Clemson has gone 8-2) and he accumulated 743 yards and 8 TDs with an average of 74 rush yards per game and 0.80 TDs per game.

Could Gallman play a bunch of really weak defenses as a featured piece and accumulate big numbers? Probably.

Does that make him comparable to Fournette? No, but Clemson is getting just as much (actually more production) from their RB vs top 20 rush defenses than Fournette is giving LSU.   

So does Carolina want to use a first round pick on a Fournette when likely a lesser pick can give them the same production? Cam is our franchise QB....so we aren't looking for an Adrian Peterson to gameplan everything around.  We don't have a game manager QB. We are looking for a complimentary piece not an offense.

I just don't think the value is there with a RB.  If Fournette was a once in a decade RB...his games vs the best rush defenses wouldn't match that of good roleplaying RBs about to enter with him IMO.  

So in conclusion, Fournette is by far the best runner in the draft. I am not endorsing Gallman as the pick. We need live young legs.  But, I think given how we don't want to be a 2 yard and a cloud of dust offense....we can get better value later.  Just like at Clemson, they get the same rush production against top rush defenses out of a lesser RB (yet more diverse RB if you were to open it up and talk about pass catching ability)

Cam Newton needs a group game like this to be successful...  you say he isn't a game manager but aside from 2015 (outlier) he's been a bottom rung qb.

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Nails Newbie

Nails

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7 minutes ago, CRA said:

Okay, so I have obviously never been big on over investing in RBs in today's NFL.  I have always believed in cheap guys running behind good OLs is the best option.  Now a lot of people are calling Fournette a once in a decade type player and all that jazz...but I still don't think the value is there at 9 and would prefer a RB later (in a DEEP RB draft).

Here are my concerns:

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 5 teams with top 20 rush defense:

Results: 0-5 record, 396 rush yards and 1 TD (average of 79 rush yards per game and 0.2 rush TDs per game

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 8 teams with a top 50 rush defense:

Results: 1-7 record, 724 rush yards, 3 TDs (average of 90 rush yards per game and 0.37 TDs per game)

Now Fournette wrecked shop and humiliated bad rush defenses.  Against the remaining opponents with rush defenses ranked 67th-126th (opponents average out at a 87 rush defense average)his team went 11-0 and he averaged 188 yards and 2.3 TDs per game.  The Fournette in these games is the one people rave about.  Don't get me wrong it still counts.  Good running against the college football field counts regardless and there are lots of examples of why you don't need a good resume vs elite defenses to prove your worth but I think it is worth discussing.

now let's take a random RB who people don't really care about in this deep draft and keep in mind this is not an endorsment of him.  Wayne Gallman of Clemson.  Now obviously he isn't the focal piece in the O.  Apples and oranges in regards to roles and RBs. Gallman has faced 10 top 20 rush defenses (Clemson has gone 8-2) and he accumulated 743 yards and 8 TDs with an average of 74 rush yards per game and 0.80 TDs per game.

Could Gallman play a bunch of really weak defenses as a featured piece and accumulate big numbers? Probably.

Does that make him comparable to Fournette? No, but Clemson is getting just as much (actually more production) from their RB vs top 20 rush defenses than Fournette is giving LSU.   

So does Carolina want to use a first round pick on a Fournette when likely a lesser pick can give them the same production? Cam is our franchise QB....so we aren't looking for an Adrian Peterson to gameplan everything around.  We don't have a game manager QB. We are looking for a complimentary piece not an offense.

I just don't think the value is there with a RB.  If Fournette was a once in a decade RB...his games vs the best rush defenses wouldn't match that of good roleplaying RBs about to enter with him IMO.  

So in conclusion, Fournette is by far the best runner in the draft. I am not endorsing Gallman as the pick. We need live young legs.  But, I think given how we don't want to be a 2 yard and a cloud of dust offense....we can get better value later.  Just like at Clemson, they get the same rush production against top rush defenses out of a lesser RB (yet more diverse RB if you were to open it up and talk about pass catching ability)

Ultimate team game.  LSU has never had good QB play to keep a D honest.  College team stats are so skewed it's ridiculous as well due to relative strength of schedule and an uneven playing field.  Obviously Exhibit A is Alabama but it can't be ignored.  Multiple guys on that D alone will be taken before or just after him.

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motocross_cat Community Regular

motocross_cat

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Cam is a great player but we have got to take more off his shoulders so he can relax and flourish.  

I understand that oline is were you start but in this draft at the 8th spot its not an option IMO.

You must take a hard look at Lenard in the first.  Pair him with jstew and get our guys healthy up front along with a remjob replacement we are lethal on the ground.  

Personally i really want one of these top safetys in this draft but the offence has been so bad it cant be ignored.

I wouldnt want the front offices job right now.

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ncsportsfan1234 Newbie

ncsportsfan1234

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Just now, Bogart said:

The only way I see Dave draft a RB at that spot is if he cuts Stew.  It's going to be a de or Safety in the first...Unless Cam retires then it will be a QB.

 

 

 

 

Just kidding on the QB....Maybe.

I don't think Dave has S that high on his board don't think there is a chance he pulls the trigger in the top 10 on a safety.

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CRA Grand Master

CRA

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12 minutes ago, ncsportsfan1234 said:

Cam Newton needs a group game like this to be successful...  you say he isn't a game manager but aside from 2015 (outlier) he's been a bottom rung qb.

Cam Newton has all time individual production at this point in his career.  He isn't a game manager.  He has carried a bigger load than any QB in the NFL since he arrived.  He hasn't been invested around properly and his team uses his unqie ability to cut corners.

You still have to invest around Aaron Rodgers.  Cut his WRs and give him Ted Ginn as his best option and he ain't going to be making predictions of running tables throwing 4 TDs a week 

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ncsportsfan1234 Newbie

ncsportsfan1234

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Just now, CRA said:

Cam Newton has all time individual production at this point in his career.  He isn't a game manager.  He hasn't been invested around. 

You still have to invest around Aaron Rodgers.  Cut his WRs and give him Ted Ginn as his best option and he ain't going to be making predictions of running tables throwing 4 TDs a week 

86 Career QB rating....  also Greg Olsen was Cams best option... Ryan freaking Tannehill has a higher career qb rating. . . He's that's including 2015. But your right he isn't a game manager he isn't Alex Smith he's Brett Favre he's a 50/50 gunslinger who won't take check downs 

 

I'm talking about investing in him with a dynamic ground game aka a qbs best friend....

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