Watkins among FAs that could be overpaid

[The Lobo]

Almost all FAs become overpaid. Look at Tommy Kelly a couple years ago. Once a team overpaid for an average player, the good players sit back and think they deserve more because they are better, and this trend continues forever.

[Snake]

5 minutes ago, The Lobo said:

Almost all FAs become overpaid. Look at Tommy Kelly a couple years ago. Once a team overpaid for an average player, the good players sit back and think they deserve more because they are better, and this trend continues forever.

Most teams just structure a deal where you can cut a player after 2 or 3 year. Like we did Kalil until Hurney changed that. So they are inflated numbers but not really true numbers. 

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, Snake said:

Most teams just structure a deal where you can cut a player after 2 or 3 year. Like we did Kalil until Hurney changed that. So they are inflated numbers but not really true numbers. 

This. I was blown away with Davante Adams deal when it was announced. 4 years/$58M for a guy who's never had a 1000 yard receiving year??? Insane! I still think he got WAY overpaid, but that contract is not a 4 year/$58M deal in reality. The cap hits in the first two years are in the $10.5M range and then they leap up to over $16.5M in the last two years with significant savings if he's cut. It's essentially a 2 year/$21M contract because it's highly unlikely he ever sees the final two years of that contract. He'll probably either be released or extended/restructured after 2019.

[MHS831]

5 hours ago, Thorrez said:

Overpaid compared to what? Of course a guy in FA will make more than one that signed a year early to get out of a small number in the last year of the rookie deal. That's how nfl works and does not mean the FA is overpaid. 

The real questions are:

1. Do we need the money/cap to keep our next draft class (With Funchess, Williams and Thompson upcoming)? 

2. What other FA can we get for the money left? 

With both Kalils gone next year, retaining that 15 start class should not be impossible with cap to spare. 

Then the question becomes what FA is better than Watkins? I don't really see one and would not mind us making a push for him. 

(of course, I think we should have kept Norwell instead. But as we all know that ship has sailed.) 

We are losing the Kalil contracts and Thomas Davis. (near $30m) 

[Snake]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

This. I was blown away with Davante Adams deal when it was announced. 4 years/$58M for a guy who's never had a 1000 yard receiving year??? Insane! I still think he got WAY overpaid, but that contract is not a 4 year/$58M deal in reality. The cap hits in the first two years are in the $10.5M range and then they leap up to over $16.5M in the last two years with significant savings if he's cut. It's essentially a 2 year/$21M contract because it's highly unlikely he ever sees the final two years of that contract. He'll probably either be released or extended/restructured after 2019.

And that's a perfect example of a team getting a guy who could be good but not over playing till he is. Not a huge GB fan but I think Adams became there best WR last year. We should follow that blueprint with Watkins because we need to spend on WR. Losing Norwell is going to be a bigger hit than most think and we have no real replacement. 

[Snake]

20 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

We are losing the Kalil contracts and Thomas Davis. (near $30m) 

It really should be this year because next year we will be resigning Williams, Olsen, and Funchess at least. So that 30 million drops to about 5 really quick. That's the problem of how JR runs his team. We wait to resign our best talent because we don't cut dead weight. So we have to either leave massive holes or pay massive amounts. 

[grimesgoat]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

We are losing the Kalil contracts and Thomas Davis. (near $30m) 

We'll still have a dead cap hit on Matt Kalil.  Plus we have to pay their replacements. 

[*FreeFua*]

14 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

We shouldn't overpay for either. I'm really interested in Watkins... at the right price. I don't think $10-12M per year is the right price. If we're going to spend that type of money on a WR, it needs to be Allen Robinson and even then the structure needs to be right to account for the risk of him coming off of an ACL. Other than that, go out and grab a stopgap like Mike Wallace that can fill the role that we need for significantly less money.

I’m down to overpay for him or Robinson (I prefer Robinson). 

Why?

Because we see what this organization does when it has money to spend. Last year was a prime example. We overpaid for a bum in Kalil. So if we blow our load on one of these guys who can actually help us then so be it. If we don’t I’m sure we’ll end up with more Kalil’s. 

[LinvilleGorge]

10 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

I’m down to overpay for him or Robinson (I prefer Robinson). 

Why?

Because we see what this organization does when it has money to spend. Last year was a prime example. We overpaid for a bum in Kalil. So if we blow our load on one of these guys who can actually help us then so be it. If we don’t I’m sure we’ll end up with more Kalil’s. 

Wait... what? You want to justify overpaying someone at a position of desperate need... because we overpaid someone at a position of desperate need last year and now you're upset about it?

[*FreeFua*]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Wait... what? You want to justify overpaying someone at a position of desperate need... because we overpaid someone at a position of desperate need last year and now you're upset about it?

Um no.

i want to overpay because these guys are actually good and if Cam finally had a WR he can make up for other holes we have.

Matt Kalil wasn’t good and anyone who wasn’t a homer knew that was a horrible deal.

So you’d prefer we not overpay for one of these WR’s and watch Hurney spend 25 mill on whoever else? I’ll take my Watkins or Robinson before I ever want to see Hurney find ways to blow 25 mill.

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, *FreeFua* said:

Um no.

i want to overpay because these guys are actually good and if Cam finally had a WR he can make up for other holes we have.

Matt Kalil wasn’t good and anyone who wasn’t a homer knew that was a horrible deal.

So you’d prefer we not overpay for one of these WR’s and watch Hurney spend 25 mill on whoever else? I’ll take my Watkins or Robinson before I ever want to see Hurney find ways to blow 25 mill.

The Kalil comp is actually a pretty good one for both guys. All three guys had early success in their careers (Kalil was a Pro Bowler as a rookie) then there were injury issues and declining performance. Just like Kalil, we'd be rolling the dice on one of these guys to stay healthy and regain their form.

It's not like either of these guys are surefire slam dunks. Robinson is coming off of a down year in 2016 and missed all of 2017 due to a torn ACL. Watkins has consistently been hampered by foot/ankle injuries and is coming off of two down years.

Don't get me wrong, I want one of them, but I'm also realistic about the risk they carry.

[BrianS]

7 hours ago, Thorrez said:

Overpaid compared to what? Of course a guy in FA will make more than one that signed a year early to get out of a small number in the last year of the rookie deal. That's how nfl works and does not mean the FA is overpaid. 

The real questions are:

1. Do we need the money/cap to keep our next draft class (With Funchess, Williams and Thompson upcoming)? 

2. What other FA can we get for the money left? 

With both Kalils gone next year, retaining that 15 start class should not be impossible with cap to spare. 

Then the question becomes what FA is better than Watkins? I don't really see one and would not mind us making a push for him. 

(of course, I think we should have kept Norwell instead. But as we all know that ship has sailed.) 

There is no way we're cutting Matt next year.

 

[*FreeFua*]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The Kalil comp is actually a pretty good one for both guys. All three guys had early success in their careers (Kalil was a Pro Bowler as a rookie) then there were injury issues and declining performance. Just like Kalil, we'd be rolling the dice on one of these guys to stay healthy and regain their form.

It's not like either of these guys are surefire slam dunks. Robinson is coming off of a down year in 2016 and missed all of 2017 due to a torn ACL. Watkins has consistently been hampered by foot/ankle injuries and is coming off of two down years.

Don't get me wrong, I want one of them, but I'm also realistic about the risk they carry.

I can acknowledge the risk with both guys but I can also acknowledge we could do A LOT worse with this cap space. Given the fact we’ve seen what Hurney is capable of with money, I’ll gladly roll the dice on either of these two