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Good Read Analyzing Hurney's Draft History (On Offense)


SetfreexX

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In this down time from the early hype of free agency to the lull, of pro-day snippets, and rumors it's nice to come across a read with a little substance to it to help hold us over, came across this a bit ago and am still reading but figured I'd share in the mean time. 

https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/2018/04/05/analyzing-marty-hurneys-past-offensive-draft-picks/

Marty Hurney drafted 36 non-quarterback offensive players in his first stint with the Carolina Panthers as general manager. If you look closely, there are definite patterns that are to be found.

For this piece, I took a look at all 36 players and tried to find these patterns, be it certain tendencies at certain positions, or certain rounds for others, and link them to the closest fitting players available in the 2018 NFL draft.

Here are the findings.

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Using his drafts from so long ago is a bad bad metric. For one the NFL is different and more of a passing league than ever. Two he's already proven what things he's valueing this off-season. We tried to sign big name WRs, Safety's, DT, TE, and CBs. He didn't try to sign big name guards, RB, LB, DE, and QB. So to me that tells us he wants to fill those positions he didn't go after in the draft, or positions he went after but couldn't sign. So I expect the high round picks to be TE, S, RB, DE. Low round picks on WR, LB, CB, and QB. 

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Will certainly be an interesting draft, could be a make or break one given the looming retirements of -- Kalil / Davis / Peppers

This has the ''feel'' of a Panthers level all in kind of off-season, we don't have the cap the Rams had to be as aggressive as they were, but this IMO was one of the more assertive off-seasons I've seen us have in a long time, if ever really. 

So to me the story is how do we replace three all-time Panthers this draft / next year -- this is a turning point to some degree, I feel like we have TD's replacement, Kalil, and Pepper's heirs, and even Olsen's are still in flux.

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58 minutes ago, CarolinaSamurai said:

Using his drafts from so long ago is a bad bad metric. For one the NFL is different and more of a passing league than ever. Two he's already proven what things he's valueing this off-season. We tried to sign big name WRs, Safety's, DT, TE, and CBs. He didn't try to sign big name guards, RB, LB, DE, and QB. So to me that tells us he wants to fill those positions he didn't go after in the draft, or positions he went after but couldn't sign. So I expect the high round picks to be TE, S, RB, DE. Low round picks on WR, LB, CB, and QB. 

good analysis  

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I feel new Hurney will try to draft less projects (Armanti/Amini). He will still try to draft a day one starter in round 1. He’s going to pick the best WR or Safety. I think it’s DJ Moore or Ridley. He will try to make a move if he has a blue chip player falling (Wynn (shoulder injury), Chubb(recovered from a bad knee), or a wildcard in Arden Key(off field). Look for other picks to be a TE from a proven program mid round and maybe an interior lineman as a target.

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33 minutes ago, Chimera said:

On Nick Chubb:

Yeah, I'd say 128 feet is well above the average broad jump. Who writes this stuff?

You mean who edits. The rise of crap writing has a lot to do with things progressing past editors(assuming there is any) with little to no legitimate editorial process.

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2 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

As he should. Chubb or Penny in the 3rd would make an awesome pairing with CMC.

I agree I was just laughing to myself at the imagery of Hurney running in a full suit out of the Panthers facilities and down mint street

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    • Sure it does, maybe not every position and not every draft.  You have to admit the hit rate goes down the further in the draft you get.  Would you more readily find a generational talent at the #2 pick or #19 pick?  High picks are considered "busts" if they doesn't pan out, whereas guys drafted later don't have that level of scrutiny upon them.  Different expectation levels.  If Styles does indeed go #2, I already listed the rarefied air that he would be in.  Maybe he doesn't set the League on fire, but my gut feeling is he does.  Again, you don't take an off-ball LB #2 if he is just a 'really good' player.
    • To illustrate my point, I watched (and commented on the Huddle) that Rozeboom would often wait a full second (or close to it) before taking his first step.  I assume that he probably had issues with false steps, a faulty practice that can take an ILB out of the gap completely.  Watch Luke and you see a step with the snap, and rarely was it a false step.  Rozeboom may have had 100 tackles (speculating) but initial contact was 2-3 yards on the defensive side of the ball.  Luke's 100 tackles were made 1-2 yards from the LOS.  Over the course of a year, Luke was much more productive (more fumbles, fewer long gainers, more OL penalties, fewer first downs, etc) that Rozeboom, but on the stat sheet, they both had 100 tackles.  In fact, Rozeboom's inefficiency kept him on the field more (more first downs, fewer OL penalties, turnovers, and punts) so he should have MORE tackles.   I would like to see stats that break down those things.   For example again, Josh Norman was slow--4.68 or so at CB.  However, his anticipation speed was incredible.  He made as many plays as a 4.4 CB.  I had one coach (college--later became the head coach at WCU) tell me that slower players have to use their brains more to still be around.  Elite athletes can just get by on their physical superiority.  He added, "Rarely does a football player run full speed.  Most of the time, they are not, so the 40 time is misleading stat.  Smart players overcome shortcomings--when the elite athlete becomes average (slows with age, advances in level of competition) they struggle against smarter (football IQ) competition.  
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