Receiving stats through week 3

[KB_fan]

10 minutes ago, ShutDwn said:

It doesn't really make sense to subtract the penetration of targets from the penetration of yardage and then represent them as a %.. It's a basis point difference of two things that are very different measures (yards vs targets).

 

It's just a roundabout way of yards per reception only you're giving negatives to high targets guys that run shorter routes

 

Totall valid points.

And yes it isn't meant as a criticism if a guy is mostly getting short yardage passes.  I just personally find it interesting to compare production % (yards) per target % for each player.

(I do a similar thing on a big level in terms of looking at % of both rushing plays and passing plays and the percent of yards that each side of the game accounts for each week.  It's not usually very meaningful, but every now and then it shows something interesting.)

And yes the difference is basis points (percentage points difference), not an actual percentage.  I'll try to make that clearer for the next time.  It was just an idea I had of something to look at.

Appreciate the feedback!

[Tepper's Chest Hair]

1 hour ago, jerryhughes101 said:

I know what you mean but 5 million for the season is hardly anything is it really. I personally thought we'd see Torrey Smith run a lot more vertical routes to get behind the defenses but that hasn't happened yet, maybe once Curtis Samuel is back he'll be doing that more?

I get what you mean.  I am not expecting him to be a game changer.  But when I see positions that are hanging on by a thread (Safety / OL) , and 5 million dollars spent there would be huge...that is what is going through my mind.

[trueblade]

Do you hand enter all the raw data yourself or are you getting a feed of some sort?

[Moorgan]

3 hours ago, KB_fan said:

 Here's a look at week to week target numbers. I expect under Norv we'll see some big week to week swings as he changes up the game plan based on the opponents.

This is one of the things that I think stands out about Norv. I'm not making this up in my Shula criticism, Ron has said this repeatedly over the years. Ron is of the mind that you don't have to significantly game plan on offense. He has said many times that we do what we do and the challenge is for the other team to stop us...1st down Stewart up the middle, repeat.

However, it seems like Norv is actually looking at the defense and saying how can we effectively attack this defense? CMC run? CMC pass? Deep balls? Etc. Essentially tailoring our plan to exploit their weakness. This is a welcome change. Additionally, another feature of a good coach is not having "your" way and, instead, evaluating the strengths and weakness of your personnel and do what puts them in the best situation. If that makes sense.

I'm pleased with what I've seen so far. Also, Smith is basically Ginn. He's a 50/50 guy. My step-brother is an Eagles fan and when he found out we got Smith he said, "You guys just signed a great human being. Terrible football player who can't catch, but a great human." So there's that.

[Khyber53]

As to Wright against the Bengals, maybe he would have been targeted more but he was well covered? Honestly, he got lost in the shuffle as I watched. If he was working the slot more then he could have been doubled in their coverage often.

 

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, trueblade said:

Do you hand enter all the raw data yourself or are you getting a feed of some sort?

I hand enter a lot.  It helps me process and analyze and better remember the numbers as I do that. 

It takes me about 2 hours after a game to put all the gamebook data into my main spreadsheet.  Life here in West Africa is pretty boring.  Not a lot of nightlife, so I have time to kill a lot of evenings! (My reading habit takes a huge hit during football season though!)

In some cases I can pull stuff from PFR into Excel (for instance each week's play by play info).

[Nate Dogg]

@KB_fan This is awesome. Great stuff. Torrey's adot is probably the highest, I would think, so his catch % would naturally be a bit lower. But, that still doesn't excuse the drops. Torrey's snap % needs to go way down and Moore/Wright/Samuel (if/when returns) way up.

I'd like to see an analysis of our defensive metrics on grass vs on turf since the start of the 2016 season. Also, how the defense has fared vs NO and ATL in particular in contrast to other opponents since the SB season. I have a feeling that NO and ATL have adapted and have tailor-made their teams to exploit our weaknesses. Ron is either incapable or just refuses to adjust. Clearly he thinks the importance of the secondary holds no weight. And unfortunately, I believe this will once again be our undoing down the stretch. 

[KB_fan]

44 minutes ago, Nate Dogg said:

Also, how the defense has fared vs NO and ATL in particular in contrast to other opponents since the SB season. I have a feeling that NO and ATL have adapted and have tailor-made their teams to exploit our weaknesses.

I've definitely been toying with this idea.  Not sure I can do it justice.  But I have the same feeling, and some film breakdown (Brett Kollmann or Baldy, I forget which) showed exactly how the Saints did that to us last year.  (It came out during the week of our playoff game vs. New Orleans... maybe some here remember it,  I know there was a thread about it on the Huddle this summer...).

I'm no Xs and Os gal.  But I will try to at least come up with some stats for how we've played vs. division opponents (and specifically ATL & NO) in the past 3 years vs. other teams.  Maybe next week I can do that since I won't have any game book data to enter, I'll have some more time.

[mc52beast]

Would really like to know why Ron/Norv are reluctant to use Moore. Dude isn’t going to get experience by doing nothing

[KB_fan]

52 minutes ago, Nate Dogg said:

I'd like to see an analysis of our defensive metrics on grass vs on turf since the start of the 2016 season.

Pro Football Reference includes surface as one of their metrics.  No time to dig into the data today, but here, for example is the data for all Panthers games on GRASS since 2015

http://pfref.com/tiny/QUfcS

I chose Points allowed and Yards allowed per Defensive Play as two data points to include, but you can go to the query form and play around with different things...

Here is the data for games on TURF since 2015

http://pfref.com/tiny/3T4jG

 

W-L on Grass: 27-10

W-L on Turf:  7-7

(Regular season only)

 

[Nate Dogg]

8 minutes ago, mc52beast said:

Would really like to know why Ron/Norv are reluctant to use Moore. Dude isn’t going to get experience by doing nothing

Agreed. It hurts to see Ridley out there making those plays while our guy isn't even getting a fair chance. And it's not like we're loaded with talent... It's Torrey freaking Smith. And next it will be Callway out in Cleveland making defenders look stupid. Pretty sure even Kirk and Sutton have been more involved than Moore. Probably Mike Williams too and they really do have a log jam of talent. (still like to think of him as a rookie considering he was injured all last season)

[Turnip]

If the price was right would you guys want Dez? 

[Jackofalltrades]

Exceptional work, thank you for the time and break down. 

[Jackofalltrades]

17 minutes ago, Turnip said:

If the price was right would you guys want Dez? 

Nope.