Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Ball Security Analysis

Mr. Scot

By Mr. Scot,
in Carolina Panthers

Recommended Posts

Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

Posted
Posted

With some here ready to praise Kyle Allen, others having come to bury him and many of us in the middle, I thought I'd take a quick comparative look at some ball security stats for several other NFL quarterbacks over their first two seasons.

I'm not adding names just yet (later) but I will tell you that my list is a mix of current players and retirees. Also, two of the QBs included are only in their second year, like Allen.

Couple of things to remember...

- Both interceptions and fumbles here are listed here because both are ball security related issues.
- The fumbles listed here are total fumbles, not just the ones that were lost but every time the quarterback listed put the ball on the ground, regardless of result (source: NFL.com).
- Fumbles are sometimes lost, but barring a fumble on the return, interceptions are pretty much always lost.
- All but two of the entries here list two full seasons worth of stats. Kyle Allen's full season numbers at this point would be projected.
- I included two seasons because, technically, Allen is in his second season (though in realty, his sample is smaller than any of the others).
- Beyond that though, I think it's better to look at trends rather than a single, isolated season.

So without further adieu, the list:

QB1: 16 Fumbles, 27 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 43
QB2: 8 Fumbles, 20 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 28
QB3: 15 Fumbles, 29 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 44
QB4: 27 Fumbles, 31 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 58
QB5: 13 Fumbles, 19 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 32
QB6: 13 Fumbles, 31 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 44
QB7: 19 Fumbles, 33 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 52
QB8: 9 Fumbles, 43 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 52
QB9: 23 Fumbles, 26 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 49
QB10: 19 Fumbles, 32 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 51

So what does it all mean?

You tell me. When you see these numbers, what does it make you think in regard to Allen's overall ball security?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bartin Collaborator

Bartin

Posted
Posted

Is Allen on this list or not? I’m guessing not because his projection would have 0 INTs.

I also don’t think it’s fair to equate any fumble to an interception because they are not always turnovers. Might be better to take 50% or 60% of total fumbles then add them with INTs for the total miscue number.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

Posted
  • Author
Posted
9 minutes ago, Doc Holiday said:

Still think he is a decent backup. Don’t really think he looked good today. I mean CMC and some key plays from the defense made it a win today

I don't know if that answer exists right now. And it's not necessarily so much that we don't know who he is as it is that he's not fully realized yet.

Very few players are everything that they're going to be - good or bad - after only playing four games. Allen is no exception.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

Posted
  • Author
Posted

And one quick thing, not necessarily related to this thread but something I've seen in the general debate...

Can we stop treating the term "game manager" as if it were an insult?

Every quarterback is a "game manager" and being proficient at it is a damn good skill to have.

If you want to say a guy is nothing special, just say that. But "game manager" should not be synonymous with "nothing special".

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

Posted
Posted

Some INTs are kinda throwaways too. End of half or end of game hail marys, 3rd and longs, etc. I mean, if you're facing 3rd and long and you throw a deep INT it can work out about the same as a punt. There's also the tipped balls, route miscommunications, etc. that really aren't on the QB. The only time I give a QB a pass on a fumble is when he's hit during his throwing motion and his arm hasn't started coming forward yet. That poo happens. It sucks, but it's not really on the QB when that happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Some INTs are kinda throwaways too. End of half or end of game hail marys, 3rd and longs, etc. I mean, if you're facing 3rd and long and you throw a deep INT it can work out about the same as a punt. There's also the tipped balls, route miscommunications, etc. that really aren't on the QB. The only time I give a QB a pass on a fumble is when he's hit during his throwing motion and his arm hasn't started coming forward yet. That poo happens. It sucks, but it's not really on the QB when that happens.

That's some of Allen's fumbles too.

But yeah, there are a hundred factors affecting things like this. It's why I generally don't like relying too heavily on stats.

Granted, in this case the whole argument revolves around a stat, specifically the rate at which Allen fumbles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

That's some of Allen's fumbles too.

But yeah, there are a hundred factors affecting things like this. It's why I generally don't like relying too heavily on stats.

Granted, in this case the whole argument revolves around a stat, specifically the rate at which Allen fumbles.

The rate at which he fumbles has to be unprecedented. The single season record is 23 and he's nearly a third of the way there through 3 games.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GoPanthers123 Newbie

GoPanthers123

Posted
Posted

QB position is hardest to master. A fair comparison is rookie QB against other rookie QBs.  We can compare KA to either current rookies or historical ones like Andrew Luck or Drew Brees. 

 

Actually if you dig up most all time greats in their rookie season stats you will find they didn’t start all that amazing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • frankw
      Trade Deadline Talk

      By frankw · Posted

      You guys are just going to have to accept the fact that Dan Morgan is a mid GM best case scenario currently. I used to have people get very belligerent over defending Scott Fitterer too. And that's not hyperbole. People used to go to bat for that guy like he was blood related. We have a truckload invested in the OL and what do we have to show for it? The whole unit is already banged up including one of our big signings. Even without all that the group has largely taken a step back from last year in pass protection. Then you get to the QB room and there's only two conclusions you can make about Dan Morgan. Either he deliberately ignored it two years in a row on his own accord or he took orders from Tepper to do so. Either scenario says he's not fit to be an NFL GM.
    • strato
      Is Canales digging his own grave?

      By strato · Posted

      Frank, ceding control of the defense in no way verifies that Tepper told Canales to bench Young.    It certainly buttresses the idea that Canales would need permission to bench him but that is as far as you can take it.    After that it is pure speculation and it doesn’t make sense. 
    • strato
      Trade Deadline Talk

      By strato · Posted

      Uhh, okay yes that happened. I didn’t like the pick either I am a 3rd or later RB guy. Always. Actually hated the CMC pick too. Hated the Stewart pick.  No one wants to talk about trading the #39 in that draft and what he did with that.  Got #52, #155, and the Rams 2025 2nd to boot.   The 52 and 155 plus our 142 5th rounder to go up for a Brooks Everyone wants to forget about the 2025 2nd for that Rams trade  which was used to move up for Scourton.  That Rams trade down was a great deal for us.     
×
×
  • Create New...