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Suggestions for a Draft Success Metric

kungfoodude

By kungfoodude,
in Carolina Panthers

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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I am putting together an idea for a breakdown of draft success by round which I will do after the playoffs are completed(due to one of the metrics not being available until then). I am looking at different criteria to evaluate and wanted some input on things to include, exclude, etc. I plan on doing 2000-2016(do not want to do further than that because it would nullify one of the criteria). 

These are the categories that I have so far.

Average Career AV(PFR career rating metric) - An overall idea of total career success.

Number of All-Pro players - Number of elite accolades.

Number of Pro Bowl Players - Number of elite accolades.

Percentage of Careers Longer than NFL Average(3.3 years) - A measure of longevity. 

Percentage of Picks with 75%+ of Possible Starts - This would NOT include an injury adjustment(4 of 4 starts for a year would only be 25%) and only include regular season games. A measure of the ultimate goal, having your draft picks be starters.

Percentage of Picks with 50%+ of Possible Starts - This would NOT include an injury adjustment(4 of 4 starts for a year would only be 25%) and only include regular season games. A measure of the ultimate goal, having your draft picks be starters.

Percentage of Picks with 25%+ of Possible Starts - This would NOT include an injury adjustment(4 of 4 starts for a year would only be 25%) and only include regular season games. A measure of the ultimate goal, having your draft picks be starters.

 

I feel like this will have a nice mix of success based criteria, longevity criteria and usage criteria. What are some other things I could include or ways I could tweak this? 

 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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7 minutes ago, Harbingers said:

Did you add the Hurney factor? 

Interestingly enough, I can isolate the Panthers performance versus the league averages for those rounds. I could even break it up by GM for those that want to fuel the neverending Hurney vs. Gettleman shitslinging episodes. 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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Also, I am considering(based on an older breakdown I saw from a Chiefs fan site) doing a breakdown of success rate by position(QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, etc) for each round. Trying to decide if I want to create a weighted metric to do that or just basically run all the raw data through each category and spit out percentages of each.

I would definitely like input on that. What would be more useful/interesting, to have a round by round positional data extrapolated from the listed categories or try to merge all those categories into a weighted ranking to determine "success?" 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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14 minutes ago, Happy Panther said:

Can you give more credit/weight to the later rounds? In other words finding a 75% utilization player in the 6th round could be given more credit than a 2nd rounder...

The round taken is more subjective than anything, so I am not sure I would want to include that. Plus, some of my general goals are to establish the relative success rate of each round individually and to establish the percentages of hits versus misses at each position per round and overall. 

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raleigh-panther Grand Master

raleigh-panther

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1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

I am putting together an idea for a breakdown of draft success by round which I will do after the playoffs are completed(due to one of the metrics not being available until then). I am looking at different criteria to evaluate and wanted some input on things to include, exclude, etc. I plan on doing 2000-2016(do not want to do further than that because it would nullify one of the criteria). 

These are the categories that I have so far.

Average Career AV(PFR career rating metric) - An overall idea of total career success.

Number of All-Pro players - Number of elite accolades.

Number of Pro Bowl Players - Number of elite accolades.

Percentage of Careers Longer than NFL Average(3.3 years) - A measure of longevity. 

Percentage of Picks with 75%+ of Possible Starts - This would NOT include an injury adjustment(4 of 4 starts for a year would only be 25%) and only include regular season games. A measure of the ultimate goal, having your draft picks be starters.

Percentage of Picks with 50%+ of Possible Starts - This would NOT include an injury adjustment(4 of 4 starts for a year would only be 25%) and only include regular season games. A measure of the ultimate goal, having your draft picks be starters.

Percentage of Picks with 25%+ of Possible Starts - This would NOT include an injury adjustment(4 of 4 starts for a year would only be 25%) and only include regular season games. A measure of the ultimate goal, having your draft picks be starters.

 

I feel like this will have a nice mix of success based criteria, longevity criteria and usage criteria. What are some other things I could include or ways I could tweak this? 

 

The Seahawks have a metric on competitiveness and apparently value of more than physical metrics

the panthers would do well to do the same as they are the softest nfl roster I have ever seen 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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1 hour ago, raleigh-panther said:

The Seahawks have a metric on competitiveness and apparently value of more than physical metrics

the panthers would do well to do the same as they are the softest nfl roster I have ever seen 

That's interesting. I'd be curious to know how they measure that and make it something that isn't just basically "the eye test." I could see maybe being able to derive some situational statistics for critical moments but some positions would be difficult to apply that kind of thing to, I would think. 

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raleigh-panther Grand Master

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6 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

That's interesting. I'd be curious to know how they measure that and make it something that isn't just basically "the eye test." I could see maybe being able to derive some situational statistics for critical moments but some positions would be difficult to apply that kind of thing to, I would think. 

It’s true.  I saw an interview about how they find middle of the road draft picks. Like Richard Sherman, and they become stars.  They value competitiveness and intelligence just as highly as physical skill. Sherman was apparently mid rd at best.  That is how they have stayed competitive all these years...look at Wilson, he fits no standard metric at all

like the Patriots, they don’t keep players past prime either

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