Marty's enormous BRAIN

[MHS831]

4 minutes ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

Before I do that, can you document your record in predicting Hurney’s 1st round picks in the past so I know how accurate you’ve been?

Yes.  I guessed the Thomas Davis pick correctly. 

Of course, we all knew Cam would be the pick.

You have to look back first--all I am saying is this:  If habits are in play in the decision-making process as they are in all human beings, there is probably a decent chance that Simmons is the pick--Marty has had a bit of success picking LBs.  He has not valued DTs--historically. Does than mean I can pick the pick?  Nope.  When the heat gets turned up, is he going to want to go with a position that has been a failure for him or success?

I am just making an educated guess, based on what may be prior habits.  We consider BPA and needs, but why not the habits of the humans involved? 

I know a person who is very close to Brandon Beane and he told me that Beane used to get frustrated with Marty's first round.  I heard a few tidbits about Marty's "stubbornness," but nothing major. 

[MHS831]

6 minutes ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

And?

new owner is a blank slate. You’re effectively guaranteeing something you’re less likely to know than what Marty will do. Talk us through your reasoning and present your case for what you think will happen and why. Pretending you can read the minds or know the decisions of people you don’t know personally just comes off as silly.

There is a difference between reading minds and studying tendencies and habits.  How does the mind show you what it is thinking?  Your actions, decisions, etc. 

No--there is no magic 8 ball or palm reading.  You ever watch World Series of Poker?  They are more interested in each other than the cards.  The make decisions based on observations of their opponents.  Some are so good, they can guess what cards their opponents had after the hand.  Yes, there is math involved, some luck, but the one thing that converts luck into skill is their abilities to spot tells and habits in opponents.  Even the established players say that a newcomer is difficult because they are unpredictable and inconsistent. 

[SmokinwithWilly]

1 hour ago, TheCasillas said:

QQ: Why does Hurney not get credit for Norman? If RR played him, it would have been more than "one season" (Ill argue that it wasnt just one season) and the Otah thing isnt Hurney's fault. When healthy Otah was a mauler. You can't predict injuries, and no GM should be held to that.

The problem is Otah couldn't stay healthy and his motivation seemed to be a big reason why. The reason I consider it a bust pick is he traded back up to get him, giving up a future 1st, a 2nd and a 4th for a guy who was out of the league in 3 years. You can't trade up for a guy with motivational issues. If Gettleman gets blamed for KB, Hurney gets the blame for Otah. KB was a little different, because of him losing his mother. There's no way to predict how someone is going to deal with grief and that seemed to affect him a lot, though how much so is really hard to say. I've seen some people move on in a week after a loss, I've seen some 5 years later who still haven't dealt with it. I don't give Gettleman a pass for KB, because there were questions about his work ethic before the draft, but at least he didn't trade up to do it. 

[TheCasillas]

26 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

The problem is Otah couldn't stay healthy and his motivation seemed to be a big reason why. The reason I consider it a bust pick is he traded back up to get him, giving up a future 1st, a 2nd and a 4th for a guy who was out of the league in 3 years. You can't trade up for a guy with motivational issues. If Gettleman gets blamed for KB, Hurney gets the blame for Otah. KB was a little different, because of him losing his mother. There's no way to predict how someone is going to deal with grief and that seemed to affect him a lot, though how much so is really hard to say. I've seen some people move on in a week after a loss, I've seen some 5 years later who still haven't dealt with it. I don't give Gettleman a pass for KB, because there were questions about his work ethic before the draft, but at least he didn't trade up to do it. 

What did his motivation have to do with this knee? They should of done surgery earlier and they didn't. Then he re-injured it. His knee was never the same.

[SmokinwithWilly]

Not managing his weight well and keeping in shape during his rehab and offseason. I've had a serious knee injury twice. The first time I didn't rehab as hard as I should have, the second I did. The difference was night and day. You have to work harder than you were before the injury. If you don't you pay the price for not doing it. 

[TheMaulClaw]

4 hours ago, MHS831 said:

We spend a lot of time discussing what we would do in free agency and the draft, and the only constant we have to rely on is the legend--Marty Hurney.  So what can we surmise about him based on previous experiences?  Here is what I recall, and maybe you can add to this (these are some random thoughts to consider in an effort to form an educated guess):

1.   He was historically terrible at drafting or signing free agent DTs.  He simply did not seem to value the position.  At the moment, it looks as if we have 1 DT who will be on the roster in 2020.  KK Short. Are we counting on Marty to develop that position?  See his DT draft history below (note: DT free agency is no better).

2. He is also not great at finding talent at key positions--but his first rounds have been excellent.   His first round picks are solid--Peppers, Gross, Gamble, Davis, Beason, Williams, Stewart, Otah, Newton, Moore, Burns.  He screwed up twice (Otah, Brown) trading away first rounders, however.

3.  Aside from Gamble and maybe Norman, what CB has he drafted?   Richard Marshall, RJ Stanford, Robert McClain, Brandon Hogan, Josh Norman (good for a season).  Not great.

4.  Take a look at his WR prowess.  Aside from Moore, and Norv Turner was heavily involved in that decision, who?:  Walter Young, Drew Carter, Keary Colbert (2nd round), Rhyne Robinson, Dwayne Jarrett (2nd round), David Gettis, Armanti Edwards, Brandon Lafell, Kealoha Pilares.  Yikes!!! Now, this draft is loaded at WR--no way Hurney misses out on this, right?

5. OT: What does Jordan Gross have in common with Lee Ziemba? Jeff Otah? Rashard Butler?  Joe Berger?  NOTHING, except they are the Tackles drafted by Hurney.  Aside from Otah, only Gamecocks' Travelle Wharton (moved to G) and Dennis Daley (may be moved to G), there is nothing of value in that group---save Gross.

There are many reasons to question his decisions as a GM--contracts such as Jake Delhomme's after surgery and non-contracts such as Julius Peppers. 

So what is he thinking now?  Remember, the key positions listed above--OT, CB, QB, DT, and WR---all positions where we need help.  What is Marty thinking with that enormous Brain?:

• LT:  He drafted 2 last year that played as rookies.  They are fine and Moton is pretty solid.
• CB: Trying to re-sign Bradberry, Cockrell.  We have Jackson.  A need, but not a priority unless we don't sign Bradberry.
• QB: Cam.  I get the feeling that this is not his call.  Marty extended Jake Delhomme after surgery and really had no backup plan.  Will he make the same move again?  Drafting a QB is not his thing--the way he jumped on Clausen a decade ago when teams that were thirsty for a qb passed on him.  Yes, he drafted Cam--but the reason he got that decision was due to picking Clausen. 
• DT:  Did you ever get the idea that Marty HATES DTs?  That is because he does.  Take a look at his draft history:
  • 2018:  7th round:  Kendrick Norton
  • 2011: 3rd round: Terrell McClain, Sione Fua
  • 2009: 3rd round: Corvey Irvin
  • 2008: Fifth round: Nick Hayden
  • 2005: Third round; Atyyah Ellison
  • 2003: Fifth Round: Kindall Moorehead

He has never drafted a DT above the third round.  His best picks were fifth rounders. 3 times he has busted on third round DTs--he is 0-3 in the third at DT.

FREE AGENT DTs:  He inherited Jenkins and Buckner.  Who are they?

So if we have (assuming Poe is gone) one DT on the roster, can Marty screw up here?  I think not.  Barring the sudden need for a QB--and maybe even if QB is a need---he has to go DT in the first round because he sucks at picking them later (disclaimer: The only first round DT in Panther history?  Star--Gettlemen's pick.  He also picked KK Short, only the second, second round DT in Panther draft history (Kris Jenkins was the other).  So it seems we have drafted well at DT in the first and second rounds when Marty Hurney is not the GM.

 

Summary:  It seems, if you look at it from Marty's perspective and he has the same powers given him in the past, that Marty will consider OT covered unless the concussion concern is a big issue.   It is unlikely he will bury one of his high picks from the year before, but he did that with Cam and Clausen.  Still, if we cut Poe, that almost necessitates a DT in rounds 1 and/or 2.  The talent seems to drop off a bit after round 2.  Until the Cam situation is resolved, we do not know much, but we should expect a DT early.  I think we will add one or even two in free agency and add a draft pick.  Marty will draft a WR, even thought he can't, because it is too deep of a draft and we do have a need--just not a huge need.  I do not see a QB in this draft unless one of the top 3 become available--then he may not.  CB is possible, but I am guessing he will throw the bank at Bradberry to avoid making a CB pick in the draft-historically, he seems to throw numbers at the position, like he did RG for years. He drafted 3 CBs one year, hoping one would stick.  Aside from Gamble and Norman, he has not hit on CBs in the draft with much accuracy--and I am not one who sees but 1 solid Norman season in 4, but for a fifth rounder, it is what it is.

Not many are discussing DE--and I think Marty might go there early (day 2). 

If Marty's history is true to form, LB Simmons is in play in the first round.  He would have to go DT in the second in that case, so I see Blacklock as a solid pick.  In the third, a CB or WR.  Marty likes the first round home runs at positions he feels confident will succeed--like RB, LB, and DE.  He has drafted first rounders at DE twice (Peppers Burns--and Brown if you count trading a first rounder for a player), RB twice (Stewart, Williams), LB three times (Keuchly, Beason, Davis).  Other first rounders are QB (Cam), LT (Gross), CB (Gamble), and WR Moore, thanks to Norv).  However, if you start in 2005 with Davis, 5 of his 8 first rounders were RBs or LBs. 

If it is based purely on need, DT or QB is the pick.  While OT does not seem likely, the concussion thing could change that.

While the draft seems to be aligned with Panther needs, the GM's history is not. 

Pure speculation based on his history-what say you all?

 

 

With all do respect. Otah was a top talent...guy just had injury issues.

[thefuzz]

1 hour ago, Happy Panther said:

Yeah but his RB and LB picks have been insane talent. Who cares if they are safe picks? Any GM in the league would take what Marty has done in the first round with safe picks:

Thomas Davis. 

DeAngelo Williams

Jon Beason

Jonathan Stewart

Luke Kuechly

Brown was a bust and Burns is TBD.

This seems to be the new thought process to discredit Hurney's obvious success in the first round. He also nailed QB (yeah not Clausen), DL, OL, WR and CB.

This isn't new, just folks started paying attention.

Marty has had 14 swings at or with 1st rounders.  Has drafted 1 QB, 1 CB, 1 OT, and 1 DE that have worked out long term for us.

The rest were either traded away, or used on RB's and LB's.  Maybe Burns and Moore make big impacts here, but if that draft history, with 7 of those selections coming in the top half of the drafts, and 1 of them being the 17th which Marty traded away for Everette Brown, makes you happy, or think it was a good use of resources, I'm not real sure what else to say.

 

 

[thefuzz]

15 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

What did his motivation have to do with this knee? They should of done surgery earlier and they didn't. Then he re-injured it. His knee was never the same.

He was known to be soft, and overweight in college.  Streaky player who folks weren't sure really loved playing football.

Subsequently, he got hurt, then ate himself out of the league.  You simply can't trade 1st rounders away to players who aren't all about football....especially big men.

End of the day, it was a gamble that came up bust.

[TheCasillas]

5 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

He was known to be soft, and overweight in college.  Streaky player who folks weren't sure really loved playing football.

Subsequently, he got hurt, then ate himself out of the league.  You simply can't trade 1st rounders away to players who aren't all about football....especially big men.

End of the day, it was a gamble that came up bust.

That's gonna fall on your coaching staff for not being able to get the best out of a player or keep him in line. 

[Billy Love]

Marty has an enormous cranium, yes. But is it filled with a highly functioning NFL GM / talent evaluators brain? I think not. If it was, this mofo would have discovered the true value of an NFL offensive line at some point during Cam Newton’s 8 year career. Think about this for a moment. You pick a QB #1 overall and never make a serious effort to protect him, and wonder why he’s injured. 
 

 

[JawnyBlaze]

QB is not a need. Our needs are OT and DT, less pressing are DE and S and maybe LB. 

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, Happy Panther said:

Yeah but his RB and LB picks have been insane talent. Who cares if they are safe picks? Any GM in the league would take what Marty has done in the first round with safe picks:

Thomas Davis. 

DeAngelo Williams

Jon Beason

Jonathan Stewart

Luke Kuechly

Brown was a bust and Burns is TBD.

This seems to be the new thought process to discredit Hurney's obvious success in the first round. He also nailed QB (yeah not Clausen), DL, OL, WR and CB.

Hurney has been successful in the first round by drafting players that are successful.  My point?  Does he ignore some positions to take players at positions he is successful picking?  There is enough to speculate about that.  I am getting tired of people trying to frame my motivation--what is my agenda?  That is not my point and it should not be your concern. Everything is not divisive.  Some things are based on an analysis of what they are or might be.  That is all.

There is no way to prove anything, but it is interesting.  You mention Beason.  Great pick, right?  However, was it?  Yes, Beason had a great career and was a good MLB.  If we analyze that draft, Hurney traded down, giving the pick to the Jets. The Jets took Revis Island.  Marty says he always takes the BPA, but the Panthers had a young stable full of CBs then (Lucas, Gamble, and Marshall), but there was room for a shut down CB--always is.  Would Revis have been an upgrade over all of them?  Sure.  Was he the BPA at 14?  Yes--I thought so then and do now.  Instead, he traded down from 14 to the 25th pick and took LB Jon Beason in Dan Morgan's shadow, and stated that Beason would play OLB.  Morgan had been injured in 2006, but was (for all intents and purposes) the unofficial MVP of Super Bowl 38 and a pro bowler just 2 years prior. 

The biggest needs on the team in 2006:

• QB: Delhomme was 31 and had been experiencing elbow pain for many months,
• WR: Smitty was the only WR worth a crap (K. Johnson was ending his 1-year cash grab)
• S: Both Safeties (Minter and Williams) were over 30. 
• TE: Michael Gaines was the TE.  
• OT: The RT was Jeremy Bridges. 

CB Revis was projected to be drafted around 10 and Beason between 25-30.  Now, if there was no need at MLB with Morgan (and that is very debatable in hindsight) and there was no need at CB (more debatable in hindsight), then what made Hurney pass on CB Revis?  If he was happy at CB, what about S Michael Griffin, Brandon Meriwether, and Reggie Nelson,  WR Dwayne Bowe (huge need)?  Why move down and take a smallish converted FB to MLB to play OLB in the 4-3 when we had Davis and Diggs?

Was he drafting BPA?  Was he drafting need?  Why not take Bowe (He took Dwayne Jarrett later) when you had nothing at WR?  Why not take Joe Staley with the 25th pick when you had Bridges at RT?  Why not simply take the BPA, and Revis was at #14--and he traded it away?

SInce the Panthers got Kalil for the trade, it worked out.  This is not about the trade's success alone; it is about the thinking behind the trade. 

Looking back, you can argue for Hurney because Beason was a good MLB and so was Kalil at C (the player he got for moving down)--but Hurney is not known to move down in a draft---he moves up a lot, had a habit of trading next year's 1st to grab Otah and Brown, but what was there not to like about your selection at 14 that year?  Even knowing what I know now, I take Revis or Bowe.  Both play positions that have given Marty fits throughout his career.

Just a thought--no, not trying to discredit hurney for first round success, but he does pick safe picks and that could include missing opportunities to fill pressing needs.  If he ignores players like Revis and grabs a Beason, is he successful?  Yes, if you only look at Beason.  No, if you think how he ignored the best CB in the NFL for the past 15 years to take a LB.

Maybe there is something to it, maybe not.

[thefuzz]

4 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

That's gonna fall on your coaching staff for not being able to get the best out of a player or keep him in line. 

Nope. 

Marty was the GM, Marty pulled the trigger to trade up to get him, Marty get's the blame for drafting an unmotivated player.

This is what happened after the trade.

The Eagles parlayed the extra first-round pick in 2009 into a trade with Buffalo for offensive tackle Jason Peters, who went on to become an eight-time Pro Bowl selection. Buffalo took Philadelphia’s pick (28th) from Carolina and selected center Eric Wood, who was selected to the Pro Bowl this past season.

 

 

[MHS831]

16 minutes ago, Billy Love said:

Marty has an enormous cranium, yes. But is it filled with a highly functioning NFL GM / talent evaluators brain? I think not. If it was, this mofo would have discovered the true value of an NFL offensive line at some point during Cam Newton’s 8 year. Think about this for a moment. You pick a QB #1 overall and never make a serious effort to protect him, and wonder why he’s injured. 
 

 

That is quite a cranium. Hoping the sarcasm of the thread title was not lost on anyone.  I laughed lunch out of my nose when I read your opening line, and I did not have lunch today.

People are praising him for the first round picks--he picks safely--see my Beason example.  Why trading down and getting Beason and Ryan Kalil may not have been a great move.