Corona Virus

[stirs]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/more-sports/patriots-e2-80-99-tom-brady-talks-coronavirus-outbreak-and-you-might-not-like-what-he-had-to-say/ar-BB10XNVK

Hate Brady, but perspective is something missing today

[LinvilleGorge]

34 minutes ago, stirs said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/more-sports/patriots-e2-80-99-tom-brady-talks-coronavirus-outbreak-and-you-might-not-like-what-he-had-to-say/ar-BB10XNVK

Hate Brady, but perspective is something missing today

Why can so many people fail to understand that pandemics experience exponential growth? We're only at the very beginning of this thing. If people would stop sticking their fuging heads in the sand then maybe we can actually take the necessary steps to significantly mitigate the spread and avoid a complete fuging disaster. It's gonna suck ass in the short term, but we'll be a helluva lot better off in the long-term to suck it up and mitigate the fug out of this thing rather than take half ass measures and hope for the best because that poo ain't gonna work and if our healthcare system gets overrun then that's also gonna mean that a helluva lot more people are gonna die from those other conditions he mentioned because there's not gonna be any medical assistance available for them with everyone dealing with COVID-19 patients.

/rant off

[stirs]

4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Why can so many people fail to understand that pandemics experience exponential growth? We're only at the very beginning of this thing. If people would stop sticking their fuging heads in the sand then maybe we can actually take the necessary steps to significantly mitigate the spread and avoid a complete fuging disaster. It's gonna suck ass in the short term, but we'll be a helluva lot better off in the long-term to suck it up and mitigate the fug out of this thing rather than take half ass measures and hope for the best because that poo ain't gonna work and if our healthcare system gets overrun then that's also gonna mean that a helluva lot more people are gonna die from those other conditions he mentioned because there's not gonna be any medical assistance available for them with everyone dealing with COVID-19 patients.

/rant off

China heading in the right direction now.  Their death rate is around 3.9.  Ours is 2.1 currently and we are learning by watching them.

I don't see the million death situation that many are saying, or 1.7 million that has been put out in the press for us.  Maybe so, but it's not in the numbers currently and w the restrictions........

[Happy Panther]

39 minutes ago, stirs said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/more-sports/patriots-e2-80-99-tom-brady-talks-coronavirus-outbreak-and-you-might-not-like-what-he-had-to-say/ar-BB10XNVK

Hate Brady, but perspective is something missing today

 

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Why can so many people fail to understand that pandemics experience exponential growth? We're only at the very beginning of this thing. If people would stop sticking their fuging heads in the sand then maybe we can actually take the necessary steps to significantly mitigate the spread and avoid a complete fuging disaster. It's gonna suck ass in the short term, but we'll be a helluva lot better off in the long-term to suck it up and mitigate the fug out of this thing rather than take half ass measures and hope for the best because that poo ain't gonna work and if our healthcare system gets overrun then that's also gonna mean that a helluva lot more people are gonna die from those other conditions he mentioned because there's not gonna be any medical assistance available for them with everyone dealing with COVID-19 patients.

/rant off

A few problems here.

This is very much like the gun control argument that car crashes kill as much as guns maybe we should ban them too. We spend millions or billions on making cars safe and one has to go through regulatory hoops to own one.

We also spend millions or billions on mitigating things like heart disease and cancer. And the healthcare system is ready to battle those things daily. It is not ready to be overwhelmed by a pandemic.

If you told me a new cancer was here that would kill an extra 100M* Americans in the next twelve months I think we would want to do something about it.

*I don't know what the number will be but its a possibility,

[LinvilleGorge]

25 minutes ago, stirs said:

China heading in the right direction now.  Their death rate is around 3.9.  Ours is 2.1 currently and we are learning by watching them.

I don't see the million death situation that many are saying, or 1.7 million that has been put out in the press for us.  Maybe so, but it's not in the numbers currently and w the restrictions........

I hope we don't see it. With proper mitigation efforts we very well might.

[stirs]

 

 

 

US, Germany and France, all seem to be on the same trajectory

[stirs]

10 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I hope we don't see it. With zero mitigation efforts we very well might.

zero?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/community-mitigation-strategy.pdf

[CBDellinger]

21 minutes ago, stirs said:

China heading in the right direction now.  Their death rate is around 3.9.  Ours is 2.1 currently and we are learning by watching them.

I don't see the million death situation that many are saying, or 1.7 million that has been put out in the press for us.  Maybe so, but it's not in the numbers currently and w the restrictions........

Well if we take action maybe we won’t have those crazy numbers... if we dont we likely will. And I think that’s the point.  For once the media frenzy is actually necessary.  I mean, if we look back on this in 3-4 months and it a punchline... I’m ok with that. 

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, stirs said:

zero?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/community-mitigation-strategy.pdf

oops, the zero shouldn't have been there. Not sure if it was auto fill or a brainfart on my part.

[Tbe]

1 hour ago, stirs said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/more-sports/patriots-e2-80-99-tom-brady-talks-coronavirus-outbreak-and-you-might-not-like-what-he-had-to-say/ar-BB10XNVK

Hate Brady, but perspective is something missing today

Like Tom, a lot of people have a terrible time assessing risk.

You see this with hurricanes. There are always people who say the risk is overblown and they stay home because “very few people die in these storms”.
 

Well yeah, because people leave. What would happen if everyone stayed and did nothing?

Same with this. What would happen if nothing was done? Italy x 10 would happen. 
 

You wouldn’t tell a cancer patient that their disease is no big deal because way more people die in car accidents. No, you take the appropriate steps (drastic if required) to stop the threat.

[stirs]

6 minutes ago, Tbe said:

Like Tom, a lot of people have a terrible time assessing risk.

You see this with hurricanes. There are always people who say the risk is overblown and they stay home because “very few people die in these storms”.
 

Well yeah, because people leave. What would happen if everyone stayed and did nothing?

Same with this. What would happen if nothing was done? Italy x 10 would happen. 
 

You wouldn’t tell a cancer patient that their disease is no big deal because way more people die in car accidents. No, you take the appropriate steps (drastic if required) to stop the threat.

Don't think we tell cancer patients its not big deal, but we also don't tell everyone they are necessarily going to get cancer.  I think that is what he is saying, but then again, I don't really care for him, so it's easy for me to thumb my nose to him.

To me, if China was not turning around in really dramatic ways, I would have a much more jaded outlook, but it can be done and I think mitigation and warmer weather, all bode well for us.

There are also new reports out however that say some people present with GI difficulties and not so much the lung issues.  That will throw a monkey wrench into a lot of efforts.  Guess it's good people getting that toilet paper.

 

[45catfan]

Sorry, not reading through 26 pages, but have you guys seen/heard where China is attempting to blame the US for this?  Their leaders say a contingent of US officials were in Wuhan province-China is September and brought it with them. If you read between the lines, not accidentally, but as a direct act of bio-terrorism.

Hey China, how about put some restrictions/regulations (ex: health codes) on your wet markets and this crap will be cut down dramatically.

[Tbe]

11 minutes ago, stirs said:

Don't think we tell cancer patients its not big deal, but we also don't tell everyone they are necessarily going to get cancer.  I think that is what he is saying, but then again, I don't really care for him, so it's easy for me to thumb my nose to him.

To me, if China was not turning around in really dramatic ways, I would have a much more jaded outlook, but it can be done and I think mitigation and warmer weather, all bode well for us.

There are also new reports out however that say some people present with GI difficulties and not so much the lung issues.  That will throw a monkey wrench into a lot of efforts.  Guess it's good people getting that toilet paper.

 

Absolutely, it can be done and I think it will be done. 
 

A lot of people think this is nothing more than the flu and we don’t need to take all these precautions. To me, that is what Tom is getting at. 

[LinvilleGorge]

8 minutes ago, stirs said:

Don't think we tell cancer patients its not big deal, but we also don't tell everyone they are necessarily going to get cancer.  I think that is what he is saying, but then again, I don't really care for him, so it's easy for me to thumb my nose to him.

To me, if China was not turning around in really dramatic ways, I would have a much more jaded outlook, but it can be done and I think mitigation and warmer weather, all bode well for us.

There are also new reports out however that say some people present with GI difficulties and not so much the lung issues.  That will throw a monkey wrench into a lot of efforts.  Guess it's good people getting that toilet paper.

 

Well, cancer isn't contagious either.

I agree with you though. I'm not all doom and gloom about this, but people do have to take this seriously and get serious about taking aggressive mitigation efforts.

I do think we're going to go through a period of ugliness though. Hopefully not as bad as Italy due to our younger and less concentrated population. The nightmare scenario for America would be a major outbreak somewhere like NYC. It'll be interesting to watch Seattle.

I do think there's hope that the virus will be less contagious during the summer. Early studies show that it's most contagious around 8.7 degrees Celsius (roughly 48 degrees Fahrenheit) with fairly significant drop-off as temperatures climb from there.