Trade down myths

[AU-panther]

Anytime someone starts to suggest trading down in the first some of the same standard responses starting showing up in the thread.

Responses such as "we have a chance to get an elite player at 7, don't trade down" or "there is a drop-off in talent after the first seven picks".

Personally I'm not sure what metric people actually using to come up with these opinions but lets look at some history.  

In another tread someone suggested pick 7 for 18, 16, and a 5th.  For he sake of this we can leave out the 5th.  Also if a pick was a QB I took the next guy on the list.  QBs play by different rules.

2019 - Josh Allen (edge) or Garrett Bradbury (C) and Montez Sweat (edge)

2018 - Roquan Smith (LB) or Jaire Alexander (CB) and Calvin Ridley (WR)

2017 - Mike Willilams (WR) or Adoree Jackson (CB) and Takkarist McKinley (DE)

2016 - Deforest Buckner (DE) or Ryan Kelly (C) and Kenny Clark (NT)

2015 - Kevin White (WR) or Marcus Peters (CB) and Breshad Perriman (WR)

So,

2019 - too early to tell

2018 - huge win for the trade down, Alexander wins it by himself, Ridley is just bonus

2017 - huge win for the trade down,  Jackson wins it by himself, McKinley is just a bonus

2016 - win for the trade down, Buckner might be the best player and a higher value position, but all three are good players, 2 good players > 1

2015 - huge win for the trade down, Peters wins it by himself, Perriman is just a bonus

I get it that 5 years is a small sample size, but it just amazes some of the comments made by people on these forums that have absolutely no basis in fact to them.

 

 

[MHS831]

2 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Anytime someone starts to suggest trading down in the first some of the same standard responses starting showing up in the thread

 

Good post.  We don't really know what this thing is going to look like, so it is hard to know what kind of players the system needs.  We are flying blind.

 

[AU-panther]

1 minute ago, MHS831 said:

Good post.  We don't really know what this thing is going to look like, so it is hard to know what kind of players the system needs.  We are flying blind.

 

That doesn't change the fact that trading down is often advantageous based on history.

 

[WarPanthers89]

It’s because we don’t need a QB now and we get a shot at a top 4 player if three QBs go in the first 6 picks like expected. I’m totally for trading down if we end up with another 1st round pick or high second. 

[AU-panther]

4 minutes ago, WarPanthers89 said:

It’s because we don’t need a QB now and we get a shot at a top 4 player if three QBs go in the first 6 picks like expected. I’m totally for trading down if we end up with another 1st round pick or high second. 

I'm sure that some QBs went in the top 7 those years also.  

[Soul Rebel]

I think the trading will go down in front of us. 

I think DET and NYG trade back so MIA, LAC or another team moves up for their guy. I think this happening, will then let one of Okudah or Simmons fall to 7. At that point, unless it's the Raiders giving us two top 20 picks - I would be hesitant to pass on Okudah or Simmons. 

The Raiders make sense bc we can still get Brown/Kinlaw at 12 and then someone like Murray/Queen/Henderson at 19.

[MMA]

39 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Anytime someone starts to suggest trading down in the first some of the same standard responses starting showing up in the thread.

Responses such as "we have a chance to get an elite player at 7, don't trade down" or "there is a drop-off in talent after the first seven picks".

Personally I'm not sure what metric people actually using to come up with these opinions but lets look at some history.  

In another tread someone suggested pick 7 for 18, 16, and a 5th.  For he sake of this we can leave out the 5th.  Also if a pick was a QB I took the next guy on the list.  QBs play by different rules.

2019 - Josh Allen (edge) or Garrett Bradbury (C) and Montez Sweat (edge)

2018 - Roquan Smith (LB) or Jaire Alexander (CB) and Calvin Ridley (WR)

2017 - Mike Willilams (WR) or Adoree Jackson (CB) and Takkarist McKinley (DE)

2016 - Deforest Buckner (DE) or Ryan Kelly (C) and Kenny Clark (NT)

2015 - Kevin White (WR) or Marcus Peters (CB) and Breshad Perriman (WR)

So,

2019 - too early to tell

2018 - huge win for the trade down, Alexander wins it by himself, Ridley is just bonus

2017 - huge win for the trade down,  Jackson wins it by himself, McKinley is just a bonus

2016 - win for the trade down, Buckner might be the best player and a higher value position, but all three are good players, 2 good players > 1

2015 - huge win for the trade down, Peters wins it by himself, Perriman is just a bonus

I get it that 5 years is a small sample size, but it just amazes some of the comments made by people on these forums that have absolutely no basis in fact to them.

 

 

You kind of prove what you’re trying to argue, right. I rather have Josh Allen, Roquan, Mike and Buckner than the other guys. 

[WarPanthers89]

37 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

I'm sure that some QBs went in the top 7 those years also.  

True but we have also as a team had  great luck any time we pick in the top 10 recently, so I don’t know if I would be down to risk it. Our last few top 10 picks:

-Christian Mccaffrey

-Luke Kuechly 

-Cam Newton

-Jordan Gross

-Julius Peppers

Top 10 picks have a great track record for our team in the last 18+ years. Dan Morgan was pick #11 for us the year before Pep, so a top 10 pick can be a building block for your team if we hit like we have in the past.

[kungfoodude]

Plucking put specific examples is probably not the best way to tackle this question. I would suggest using PFR's CarAV metric and doing an average for top 10-15 and outside the top 10-15 first round draft picks. See what the averages are over 15-20 drafts.

[stirs]

Would love to know how the Panthers or any pro team, have the players tiered.

https://gbnreport.com/gbn-value-board/

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, MMA said:

You kind of prove what you’re trying to argue, right. I rather have Josh Allen, Roquan, Mike and Buckner than the other guys. 

If you are going on name recognition maybe 

[CBDellinger]

1 hour ago, AU-panther said:

That doesn't change the fact that trading down is often advantageous based on history.

 

Just gotta get the right deal... it helps if someone really wants to move up to your spot vs just wanting move down.  
 

1 hour ago, AU-panther said:

I'm sure that some QBs went in the top 7 those years also.  

7 isn’t a bad spot if 3 qbs go before us. I know that’s a big if tho. 

 

 

[MMA]

1 hour ago, AU-panther said:

If you are going on name recognition maybe 

I’m not. Allen, Roquan, Mike and Buckner are better players. 

[Riverboat Ron]

But do you really trust Hurney to not get bent over by 99.9% of other GM's?