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2nd round will be telling about our rebuild...

saX man

By saX man,
in Carolina Panthers

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saX man Mentor

saX man

Posted
Posted

I just see so much available talent...

CBs: Diggs, Gladney, Fulton, Johnson, Noah I, Dantzler

WRs: Reagor, Hamler, Aiyuk, Pittman

DE/5T: Davidson, Terrell Lewis, Jon Greenard, Darrell Taylor (overlooked), Alton Robinson

LB: Logan Wilson, Uche, Malik Harrison, Davis-Gaither

S: Dugger, Chinn

C/G: Ruiz, Cushenberry, Hennessy

All I'm saying is get ready for a potential out of nowhere selection if it's not James Lynch (lawls).

Anyone jump out to y'all?  Content with staying put?   Maybe trading down and getting an extra 3rd or 4th? 

Let's hear it!

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CarolinaNCSU Proficient

CarolinaNCSU

Posted
Posted

To me, it's gotta be a CB.  Rhule gets a new guy at every level of the defense including one of his own, and the rest of the picks become true BPA based on our board.  Would love some OL, but just feel like it's going to get ignored since we're "better" off there right now and Hurney is surely still high on the guys he took last year. 

1st - Simmons

2nd - CB

3rd - Lynch - - and just praying it's not a trade up into the 2nd to grab him. 

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Zithers2 Newbie

Zithers2

Posted
Posted

marty hurney 2nd round picks

amini silatolu
eric shelton
jimmy clausen
dwayne jarrett
rashaan gaulden
donte jackson
greg little
richard marshall (solid)
ryan kalil (good)
keary colbert

our 2nd round pick is almost certainly going to be horrific, streaming garbage. no reason to expect anything else since its been over ten years since hurney selected a good player in the 2nd round.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Zithers2 said:

marty hurney 2nd round picks

amini silatolu
eric shelton
jimmy clausen
dwayne jarrett
rashaan gaulden
donte jackson
greg little
richard marshall (solid)
ryan kalil (good)
keary colbert

our 2nd round pick is almost certainly going to be horrific, streaming garbage. no reason to expect anything else since its been over ten years since hurney selected a good player in the 2nd round.

Not trying to defend Marty at all but "good" is drastically underselling Ryan Kalil. He was a 5 time Pro Bowler and a 2 time All-Pro.

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ColumbusCounty Proficient

ColumbusCounty

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, saX man said:

Uche

I really like this dude !!!!! 

Dugger also...

And that nickle out of LA tech I believe .. Robertson (but he's a 3-4)

Our second will be whoever falls out of the first who halfway meets a need ...that tends to be the Hurney way of not fuggin up (See Little,  Clausen, Jackson). Then after the 2nd we usually draft based on need and add 2 contributers on ST. 

Btw, you might as well pencil in Lynch being a Panther btw.. 3rd

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, saX man said:

I just see so much available talent...

CBs: Diggs, Gladney, Fulton, Johnson, Noah I, Dantzler

WRs: Reagor, Hamler, Aiyuk, Pittman

DE/5T: Davidson, Terrell Lewis, Jon Greenard, Darrell Taylor (overlooked), Alton Robinson

LB: Logan Wilson, Uche, Malik Harrison, Davis-Gaither

S: Dugger, Chinn

C/G: Ruiz, Cushenberry, Hennessy

All I'm saying is get ready for a potential out of nowhere selection if it's not James Lynch (lawls).

Anyone jump out to y'all?  Content with staying put?   Maybe trading down and getting an extra 3rd or 4th? 

Let's hear it!

A lot of these stand out---of course, it depends on what we do in round 1, but I see CB as the position difficult to escape---our biggest need, and likely NOT addressed in Round 1-we need a starter good enough to keep Jackson on the #2---it HAS to be a CB.

Having said that, if it is not, Ruiz would be difficult to pass up if you are thinking long term. 

 

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Zithers2 said:

marty hurney 2nd round picks

amini silatolu
eric shelton
jimmy clausen
dwayne jarrett
rashaan gaulden
donte jackson
greg little
richard marshall (solid)
ryan kalil (good)
keary colbert

our 2nd round pick is almost certainly going to be horrific, streaming garbage. no reason to expect anything else since its been over ten years since hurney selected a good player in the 2nd round.

I think there is a reason for this--Marty once said (about the Armanti Edwards trade up) that he tried to move up for Clausen and when he fell to us, he felt that pick was like "house money."  (paraphrasing his longer answer).  I heard this on the radio and nearly put my '74 classic Gremlin into a guard rail.  Had I known how bad both were going to be, I would have.  (disclaimer:  I never owned a 74 Gremlin, but it made the story better).

What kind of friggin logic is that?  I think Marty is looking for that immediate impact, first round explosion so he can get his "atta boy" and then he just sucks after that.  According to NFL statistics-and by these numbers there is no excuse for any GM keeping a job--Marty should be hitting on the following:

First of all, the first round, broken down (RIOT REPORT citing PFF):

image.png.2f298f0c8abb87abdcc09761c0bc4820.png

Not too good for pick #7.

Here it is broken down by position but these numbers are for "upper tier" first rounders--how many become elite, based on their formula.  (I am looking for second round data like this, but I thought I would share round 1 data for perspective):

image.png.fa788cca19f15060c8acc220f4dbd9b5.png

More in my next post in this thread...

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted

Found this on an KC site dated 2015.  It breaks down success by round by position.  If we go CB in the second round, we have a 46% chance of success.

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round#pgh/31/6788.133544921875

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cmichd Newbie

cmichd

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, saX man said:

I just see so much available talent...

CBs: Diggs, Gladney, Fulton, Johnson, Noah I, Dantzler

WRs: Reagor, Hamler, Aiyuk, Pittman

DE/5T: Davidson, Terrell Lewis, Jon Greenard, Darrell Taylor (overlooked), Alton Robinson

LB: Logan Wilson, Uche, Malik Harrison, Davis-Gaither

S: Dugger, Chinn

C/G: Ruiz, Cushenberry, Hennessy

All I'm saying is get ready for a potential out of nowhere selection if it's not James Lynch (lawls).

Anyone jump out to y'all?  Content with staying put?   Maybe trading down and getting an extra 3rd or 4th? 

Let's hear it!

Take on of the C/G that would be on the board.  Making sure we have a center for next year and understands our system.

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Found this on an KC site dated 2015.  It breaks down success by round by position.  If we go CB in the second round, we have a 46% chance of success.

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round#pgh/31/6788.133544921875

According to this chart, DLs have done better in the fourth round than all other rounds except for the first....DBs have a rather substantial drop off after 2 rounds....Offensive Line is your best chance for success in the first three rounds than other positions...LB is a pretty safe pick, based on these numbers.

Based on our needs and that we are likley to go QB, DT, or LB in round 1, CB has to be the second round selection.  However, CB is deeper this year than in years past, so you might get away with an early 3rd.  OL (Ruiz for example) in the second round is a very safe pick.

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TheProcess Rising Star

TheProcess

Posted
Posted

For me it depends on our pick at 7

If we go defense, I want to stay defense through the first 4 rounds, let them grow together and learn to play together from the start.

Simmons at 7 -  then get Gladney in the 2nd, and Raekwon Davis in the 3rd

Okudah at 7 - then get Blacklock or Davidson in the 2nd, and BPA in 3rd

Brown at 7 - then Gladney in 2nd, and BPA in 3rd

Let these guys grow and learn to play together

Same with offense, if we draft a Tackle early, stay offense and let them grow and learn together by playing together. 

Tackle at 7 - then Cesar Ruiz at 38, and BPA at 68...if Ruiz is not there, then best WR available at 38, and Cushenberry or Biadasz at 68 (one of them will be there)

Get tackle and center and letting them grow and learn to play together. 

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I think there is a reason for this--Marty once said (about the Armanti Edwards trade up) that he tried to move up for Clausen and when he fell to us, he felt that pick was like "house money."  (paraphrasing his longer answer).  I heard this on the radio and nearly put my '74 classic Gremlin into a guard rail.  Had I known how bad both were going to be, I would have.  (disclaimer:  I never owned a 74 Gremlin, but it made the story better).

What kind of friggin logic is that?  I think Marty is looking for that immediate impact, first round explosion so he can get his "atta boy" and then he just sucks after that.  According to NFL statistics-and by these numbers there is no excuse for any GM keeping a job--Marty should be hitting on the following:

First of all, the first round, broken down (RIOT REPORT citing PFF):

image.png.2f298f0c8abb87abdcc09761c0bc4820.png

Not too good for pick #7.

Here it is broken down by position but these numbers are for "upper tier" first rounders--how many become elite, based on their formula.  (I am looking for second round data like this, but I thought I would share round 1 data for perspective):

image.png.fa788cca19f15060c8acc220f4dbd9b5.png

More in my next post in this thread...

So for pick 7 you could get 18 and 31, so

51.4% or 51.4% and 47%

So much for one quarter for two dimes.

Looks more like one quarter for two quarters.

 

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