The QB mirage of 2020

[Little Goody Two Shoes]

I believe offenses and QBs had the same amount of time to prepare. 

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, Little Goody Two Shoes said:

I believe offenses and QBs had the same amount of time to prepare. 

It's an interesting talking point but I think the factors largely even out. It would be hard to make a conclusive case, IMO.

[AU-panther]

3 hours ago, GoobyPls said:

That’s why you look at film not the box core.

This, especially at the college level where there is so much different between talent levels and schemes.

Stats such as yards, TDs, and even completion percentage can be overinflated and not easily translated to the next level.

Now advanced stats can help you verify what you see.   For example a high completion percentage might be a sign of a system that focuses on short throws and be a bit misleading,  but if you can show me completion percentage for 10-20 yard passes that might give you a better picture of what is really happening.  Instead of interceptions, look at turnover worthy plays, sometimes a QB gets lucky just because the DB has terrible hands.  

Think about all of the Heisman winning QBs who have not done well at the next level.  That is a perfect example of how misleading the box score can be.

 

[BrianS]

2 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Completion percentage is actually something that is pretty important for a QB. That is one of the few stats that is a pretty decent predictor of NFL success. 

IE, if you aren't an accurate passer in college, it is highly unlikely that will improve in the NFL. Many examples of this among first round QB busts.

I agree with some of that.  I don't think you're suddenly going to become an accurate passer in the NFL.  Generally, there appears to be a slight decline, with the occasional outlier who does improve.  Basically, completion percentage in college is a pretty good predictor of completion percentage in the NFL.

I don't necessarily think completion percentage is a very good predictor of success.

First column of stats is the college completion percentage, second column is the NFL completion percentage.  I picked the 2016 draft because there were quite a few QB's taken, and because it's been long enough that those QB's have had ample opportunity to develop.  The very last column is the status of that player - S = Starter, O = Out of League, J = Journeyman, B = Backup.

QB is just too (*&#$ing weird man.  Just no accounting for it.

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, BrianS said:

I agree with some of that.  I don't think you're suddenly going to become an accurate passer in the NFL.  Generally, there appears to be a slight decline, with the occasional outlier who does improve.  Basically, completion percentage in college is a pretty good predictor of completion percentage in the NFL.

I don't necessarily think completion percentage is a very good predictor of success.

First column of stats is the college completion percentage, second column is the NFL completion percentage.  I picked the 2016 draft because there were quite a few QB's taken, and because it's been long enough that those QB's have had ample opportunity to develop.  The very last column is the status of that player - S = Starter, O = Out of League, J = Journeyman, B = Backup.

QB is just too (*&#$ing weird man.  Just no accounting for it.

Yeah, it is by no means the sole predictor of NFL success but it is important for evaluation purposes precisely for that reason. QB's tend to(which is logical) perform slightly worse than they did in college in terms of accuracy. So, taking a Kyler Boller, let's say....doesn't work. 

 

Thanks for doing all that. I know I have read a few articles on it from the stats nerds over the years. 

[stbugs]

3 hours ago, raz said:

there was nothing wrong.  missing the ncaa tournament was huge for evaluation, and the teams were only allowed to bring in 10 prospects for in person workouts and interviews.   also, those are great points about evaluation of the college football players.  i really hadn't considered that this morning when i posted

Yep, wasn’t saying it was easy for the NBA just that they got an almost complete season to review. I think the NFL will likely have similar limits but a much more restricted college season to review. So many top prospects not playing. I mean how do you evaluate Walker Little or Jamie Newman or Trey Lance? Potential first rounders or day 2 picks that didn’t play at all. Guys like Sewell, Parsons and Chase are a bit easier, but still a little more questions especially with say Burrow looking solid and LSU sucking. Maybe Chase isn’t as good as Burrow and Brady made him. Just way more risk and there are more top opt outs than I realized. 

[Icege]

I think that this is an issue wide ranging with this particular draft class in general. Very limited recent game film to evaluate by and an even bigger hill to climb for some in order to be physically ready for the pros (given the rash of injuries this year related to COVID and players' inability to get the physical preparation they really needed during the offseason).

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of players from this coming draft have significant growing pains. I'm so glad that we have the staff that we do as they'll be great in bringing them along.

[JawnyBlaze]

7 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Completion percentage is actually something that is pretty important for a QB. That is one of the few stats that is a pretty decent predictor of NFL success. 

IE, if you aren't an accurate passer in college, it is highly unlikely that will improve in the NFL. Many examples of this among first round QB busts.

Completion percentage doesn’t equal accuracy. That’s just a widely believed fallacy. So much more goes into accuracy than just whether the WR was good enough to catch the ball or whether the QB is only asked to make easy throws.  That’s why you have to watch the throws rather than just look at stats. 

[CarolinaRideorDie]

14 hours ago, Jeremy Igo said:

I saw a comment yesterday that I found interesting. How much stock do you put in the performances of college QBs this year? A year in which Covid has diminished greatly the ability of teams to prepare and train their defenses.

 

Take Zach Wilson for example. Look at his completion percentage...

 

So he regressed in 2019 but all of a sudden in 2020 be takes a 13 point jump in completion percentage? How much does the Covid cloud have to do with that?

It's more than just numbers and stats. In 2018 he only threw it for 182 times, in 2019 he doubled as many attempts to 319 and saw a slight drop in percentage. 2018 was just a small sample size and it's not accurate to say that he regressed. If I threw 10 passes and completed 9, my completion % is 90%. If I threw 100 passes and completed 80, my completion % is 80%. Did I regress or just had more opportunities to show my baseline?