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T Lance film and write up


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The questions of his accuracy concern me. He intrigues me, but not enough give up a lot of assets to trade up to draft. If we do not get Watson, I am ok sitting at 8 and going best QB or BPA. That may be the best answer long term. 

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I somewhat compare Lance coming out of college to Josh Allen without the arm strength of Allen. Lance has good arm strength, but not many are on the level of Allen. 

The comparisons are with size, athletic ability, pocket awareness, isn’t afraid to stand in the pocket, can make plays outside the pocket, but struggles with accuracy while not playing top competition. 

Josh Allen struggled for a couple of years, but continued to progress and was great this year in his 3rd year. You would be looking at a similar timeline for Lance, but if he can fix accuracy issues, go through his reads, and adjust to the competition level in the NFL, it would be worth the wait as he can absolutely be very good. Many QB's that lack in these areas struggle to fix them, and if he struggles he want ever come close to reaching that potential. He will probably go top 10 this year due to the QB craze, but in my opinion he would not in most years.

Edited by TheProcess
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2 hours ago, TheProcess said:

I somewhat compare Lance coming out of college to Josh Allen without the arm strength of Allen. Lance has good arm strength, but not many are on the level of Allen. 

The comparisons are with size, athletic ability, pocket awareness, isn’t afraid to stand in the pocket, can make plays outside the pocket, but struggles with accuracy while not playing top competition. 

Josh Allen struggled for a couple of years, but continued to progress and was great this year in his 3rd year. You would be looking at a similar timeline for Lance, but if he can fix accuracy issues, go through his reads, and adjust to the competition level in the NFL, it would be worth the wait as he can absolutely be very good. Many QB's that lack in these areas struggle to fix them, and if he struggles he want ever come close to reaching that potential. He will probably go top 10 this year due to the QB craze, but in my opinion he would not in most years.

Josh Allen was a career 56.2% passer. Trey Lance is a 67.0% career passer.

I am not saying that he doesn't have some things to work on but the accuracy issues seem to be extremely overblown. For reference, Carson Wentz was a 64.2% career passer at NDSU.

Edited by kungfoodude
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50 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Josh Allen was a career 56.2% passer. Trey Lance is a 67.0% career passer.

I am not saying that he doesn't have some things to work on but the accuracy issues seem to be extremely overblown. For reference, Carson Wentz was a 64.2% career passer at NDSU.

You have to take into account the talent surrounding the QB compared to opponent talent too. Allen played at the top level of the NCAA, and had very little talent around him, while playing in the Mountain West against superior teams with superior talent. Lance played with the best talent around him at that level of NCAA, his talent was superior to teams they played against. It's much easier to make quick reads and get the ball out to receivers that are running open.

I could also use Jalen Hurts as a comparison with strengths and flaws. Jalen was a 65% passer in college, and his accuracy issues are apparent at times. He was successful with a high % because his teammates were superior to most of their competition. Jalen only completed 52% as an NFL rookie last year while removing Wentz as the starter.

There is no doubt that Lance has potential, but he has things to work on with accuracy being one of them. If a team is patient with him, they could see the rewards 2-3 years down the road, or he could bust in which he would join a long list of many. 

Edited by TheProcess
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7 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

You have to take into account the talent surrounding the QB compared to opponent talent too. Allen played at the top level of the NCAA, and had very little talent around him, while playing in the Mountain West against superior teams with superior talent. Lance played with the best talent around him at that level of NCAA, his talent was superior to teams they played against. It's much easier to make quick reads and get the ball out to receivers that are running open.

I could also use Jalen Hurts as a comparison with strengths and flaws. Jalen was a 65% passer in college, and his accuracy issues are apparent at times. He was successful with a high % because his teammates were superior to most of their competition. Jalen only completed 52% as an NFL rookie last year while removing Wentz as the starter.

There is no doubt that Lance has potential, but he has things to work on with accuracy being one of them. If a team is patient with him, they could see the rewards 2-3 years down the road, or he could bust in which he would join a long list of many. 

I'm not sure I would call the Mountain West "the top level of the NCAA" but I understand what you are saying about jumping up from FCS to FBS. I will say that NDSU would probably be a middle tier FBS team, so they likely had a lot more talent that the bulk of their opponents. 

I don't necessarily believe that Lance deserves any more heat that Mac Jones probably does for throwing to wide open guys. It's definitely something that factors into the evaluation, without question. 

Hurts I'd probably wait on making that comparison yet because it was also acknowledged that Philly had one of the worst WR corps in the NFL. Lamar Jackson was a 57% career passer in college but is a 64% passer in the NFL(although he did start his career as a 58% passer as a rookie). 

I do agree that he will probably need significantly more development time than the rest of the top 4 QB's and will likely be the most reliant on designing an offense to make him successful. But, perhaps he can make the sort of progression that Josh Allen has over his career, which is to start out as a fairly unimpressive passer and bloom into an MVP caliber player. 

 

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11 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I'm not sure I would call the Mountain West "the top level of the NCAA" but I understand what you are saying about jumping up from FCS to FBS. I will say that NDSU would probably be a middle tier FBS team, so they likely had a lot more talent that the bulk of their opponents. 

I don't necessarily believe that Lance deserves any more heat that Mac Jones probably does for throwing to wide open guys. It's definitely something that factors into the evaluation, without question. 

Hurts I'd probably wait on making that comparison yet because it was also acknowledged that Philly had one of the worst WR corps in the NFL. Lamar Jackson was a 57% career passer in college but is a 64% passer in the NFL(although he did start his career as a 58% passer as a rookie). 

I do agree that he will probably need significantly more development time than the rest of the top 4 QB's and will likely be the most reliant on designing an offense to make him successful. But, perhaps he can make the sort of progression that Josh Allen has over his career, which is to start out as a fairly unimpressive passer and bloom into an MVP caliber player. 

 

Yes, and when I said top level I meant FBS level. The Mountain West is no cupcake, but it certainly isn't the SEC either. 

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10 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Yes, and when I said top level I meant FBS level. The Mountain West is no cupcake, but it certainly isn't the SEC either. 

Agreed. I actually really like Mountain West football sort of like I loved MAC football in the Big Ben, Omar Jacobs, Antonio Gates, Byron Leftwich, Garrett Wolfe days. Early 2000's. Man that was a fun conference. 

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2 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Agreed. I actually really like Mountain West football sort of like I loved MAC football in the Big Ben, Omar Jacobs, Antonio Gates, Byron Leftwich, Garrett Wolfe days. Early 2000's. Man that was a fun conference. 

That was a fun conference. I have a buddy thats a diehard Steelers fan (poor guy), and I can remember we were watching the draft together. I said you guys better pick Roethlisberger, and he was like heck no because he had never heard of him or Miami of Ohio. He's heard of him now.

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Questioning his arm strength.  Start with this play.  He's on HIS 45 yard line and throws to the endzone for a touchdown. 

There are more too.  A couple more 50+ yard bombs. I cut out a lot of Trey's rushing TDS at the beginning of this video.

Edited by 45catfan
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46 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Watch the clip I posted above and see if ANYTHING resembles Teddy....at all.

Well, they both wear jersey # 5.....I mean you did say anything....lol

 

Seriously though, I'm not sure where any comparison to Teddy comes from.

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