Reasonable expectations for rookie performance

[kungfoodude]

17 minutes ago, rayzor said:

yeah that is kind of the brilliance of it. because of the limited success for late round picks there's very little risk involved, but the guys they've added from this class could, even with nominal talent, play significant roles for the next couple years...mainly because we were so depleted of talented depth. 

it's easy to have several home runs our of this draft because we had holes and they selected good players who, on a more stacked team, wouldn't have much of a chance. these guys will have an honest shot to make it and more than a couple will.

Yeah, that was honestly one of the biggest issues with our team in general. That was why I said we were the least talented roster I could recall before last season. It wasn't so much that we didn't have talented starters but I had never seen such a sorry lot of depth guys as we had.

That is what I really hope to get out of all these guys in this class. If we can shore up the depth on the roster alone, it will allow us to finally fix the OL in the next couple of offseasons and perhaps start looking for some upper end upgrades on our weaker spots.

It's definitely something not enough of our fans had an appreciation for. That's why all those injuries had such a huge impact last year.

[CRA]

41 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Tremble will rotate in and play in the backfield some--to what degree?  No real idea, but I can see him getting up to 25% of the snaps.

I like the Tremble pick but he is a project IMO.   Not saying we want won't see him but 25% seems pretty high for a raw rookie that was kinda niche player in college.  I think he was drafted for his upside down the road and what he could develop into more than anything. 

people are putting a lot of expectations on some of these guys.  The main function of a lot these would be block on the line.   I just don't' think we can afford to take a lot of chances with rookies up front early given the gamble they have made trying to redeem Sam Darnold.  

 

[BlitzMonster]

4 minutes ago, CRA said:

I like the Tremble pick but he is a project IMO.   Not saying we want won't see him but 25% seems pretty high for a raw rookie that was kinda niche player in college. 

He could definitely get 25% of the snaps.  

I'll bet the Panthers run a smash-mouth rushing attack next season to help support Sam Darnold.   I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina was in the top 10 in rushing attempts for 2021.

In that case, Tremble might play a lot as both a blocking TE and a FB.   

[rayzor]

16 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, that was honestly one of the biggest issues with our team in general. That was why I said we were the least talented roster I could recall before last season. It wasn't so much that we didn't have talented starters but I had never seen such a sorry lot of depth guys as we had.

That is what I really hope to get out of all these guys in this class. If we can shore up the depth on the roster alone, it will allow us to finally fix the OL in the next couple of offseasons and perhaps start looking for some upper end upgrades on our weaker spots.

It's definitely something not enough of our fans had an appreciation for. That's why all those injuries had such a huge impact last year.

we were super thin and the team and coaching staff was as raw as possible and we were still just a smidge from winning quite a few more games than we did. we got more talent and the coaching staff has a year under it's belt. we just need a bit more production from QB (which shouldn't be hard to pull off) and we could very well double our wins from last year.

[CRA]

27 minutes ago, BlitzMonster said:

He could definitely get 25% of the snaps.  

I'll bet the Panthers run a smash-mouth rushing attack next season to help support Sam Darnold.   I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina was in the top 10 in rushing attempts for 2021.

In that case, Tremble might play a lot as both a blocking TE and a FB.   

Joe Brady is our OC.  If we have to revert to old school Foxball for Darnold to not look like a bad move.....then it was a bad move.  

I fully expect Joe Brady to do his thing this year.   

 

[kungfoodude]

22 minutes ago, rayzor said:

we were super thin and the team and coaching staff was as raw as possible and we were still just a smidge from winning quite a few more games than we did. we got more talent and the coaching staff has a year under it's belt. we just need a bit more production from QB (which shouldn't be hard to pull off) and we could very well double our wins from last year.

I was genuinely surprised we were even remotely competitive last season. So, we are way ahead of what I thought the schedule was going to be. I hope we see that next step this season. If Rhule's pattern follows him from the college ranks, we should be around .500 this season and then in 2022 we make the big jump to being an elite team.

I know a lot have jumped on the Darnold bandwagon but I honestly expect that position will lose us a lot of games this season. I'll be pumped to be wrong(after all, I did say drafting Cam would be a mistake) but I just don't see the track record of success from trying to rehabilitate a bust player historically. Nor do I really see the raw material that makes me believe he is capable of improving enough for it to matter for the future of our franchise.

I'm definitely ready to see our Training Camp start though. I am tired of all the theoretical discussions and I'd like to start hearing about how all these new offseason acquisitions are progressing. This is one of the worst parts of the offseason as a fan, that lull between the draft and Training camp. 

[kungfoodude]

7 minutes ago, CRA said:

Joe Brady is our OC.  If we have to revert to old school Foxball for Darnold to not look like a bad move.....then it was a bad move.  

I fully expect Joe Brady to do his thing this year.   

 

I think(and hope) he would adjust what he does to help make Darnold as successful as possible. That's becoming more the case that teams try to tailor their offenses to suit their young QB's. 

I think in the scenario that we have to completely change our offense to hide/protect Darnold, he probably isn't starting for us anymore. 

[ForJimmy]

Some of these 2nd year players might be in for good seasons as well. Sam Franklin, YGM, Roy, Miller (3rd year, but didn’t play last year), STO, Pride, and I’m still hopeful for Kenny Robinson. These guys (except Robinson) contributed some as rookies and will hopefully continue to develop under this staff. (Chinn and Brown were obvious) We should have a young and exciting defense!

[CRA]

51 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I think(and hope) he would adjust what he does to help make Darnold as successful as possible. That's becoming more the case that teams try to tailor their offenses to suit their young QB's. 

I think in the scenario that we have to completely change our offense to hide/protect Darnold, he probably isn't starting for us anymore. 

Darnold is still going into his 4th year as a starter in the NFL.  

If Joe Burrow could pick it up in college then Sam can pick it up in the NFL.    I fully expect Joe Brady to run his offense this year.   

If you think we need to run Foxball for Sam to look good year 1….Sam was a mistake.   I think Sam can run the O.  All comes down to if he can limit the dumb plays.  Talent is there and he is smart enough to pick up the O.  

Sam can’t be treated and viewed  like he is Trey Lance.  He doesn’t get to slow walk to the degree Lance would. 

 

[AU-panther]

People get caught up talking about starting and contributing.  Depending on your current players a bad player can come in and start or play a decent amount of snaps.

A rookie that is playing at a replacement level isn't helping your team much more than a vet playing at the same level on a cheap contract.

As KB_fan pointed out very few rookies truly play better than an average player and to expect otherwise is unrealistic.  Just because he plays a lot of snaps doesn't mean he played well.

The best way to really evaluate a draft class is to wait two years and ask yourself honestly how many of the players you drafted are really playing above replacement level.