Reasonable expectations for rookie performance

[KB_fan]

Good article today at the Athletic looking at rookie classes over the past 5 years and breaking down the rookies from each year who made significant contributions.  (Analysis is based on Pro Football Reference Approximate Value calculation)

For now I just have time to post the link. Later today I'll try to post a summary for those who don't have a subscription, and some analysis/ conclusions.

https://theathletic.com/2580954/2021/05/18/what-do-the-numbers-tell-us-about-reasonable-expectations-for-nfl-rookies?source=user-shared-article

 

Among 2016 - 2020 rookie classes:

"This spelled out to 19.1 percent of draft picks (243 of 1,271 players selected) receiving a 5+ AV,

12.8 percent in the 5-7 AV only category,

3.5 percent in the 8-9 AV only category and

2.8 percent in the 10+ AV only category.

That’s about a 6.3 percent rate where a draft pick finished his rookie season as a top 270 (or so) player in the past five years."

[KB_fan]

I know last night I posted something about expecting about 5 - 6 of our new rookies to be contributing on a meaningful level this season.

Based on this i probably need to temper my expectations to 2-3.  Though, if I recall correctly AV metric is pretty heavily weighted to pro-bowl / all-pro votes. Rookies can perhaps still make a big contribution in ways not likely to show up in AV.  I'll try to dig deeper tonight... 

Edited May 18, 2021 by KB_fan

[MHS831]

9 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

I know last night I posted something about expecting about 5 - 6 of our new rookies to be contributing on a meaningful level this season.

Based on this i probably need to temper my expectations to 2-3.  Though, if I recall correctly AV metric is pretty heavily weighted to pro-bowl / all-pro votes. Rookies can perhaps still make a big contribution in ways not likely to show up in AV.  I'll try to dig deeper tonight... 

KB, we should temper expectations, but dang, our pool of draftees is possibly effective.  Our sixth rounder could very reasonably and practically start at RG at some point.  Our third rounder is a possible starter.  Of course, Horn and Marshall will play key roles.  Tremble?  How will we keep him off the field, especially if we do not keep a FB?  I am very convinced that we will see 7-9 of these drafted rookies on the field every game.  How well will they do? Dunno.  But I would lean closer to 5-6 than 2-3. Horn and Marshall are first round talents who will play at a high level and do well.  Christensen?  Not sure--RG is his fastest path, but he could roll into LT as a rookie at some point. Tremble and Brown are the other two that I think may tip the scales toward 5----

And I am not going to even mention the long snapper situation.

Edited May 18, 2021 by MHS831

[ncstatekwi]

Excited with what we are doing!!  Cannot wait to see what comes of our moves!  KB..thanks for posting!!

[LinvilleGorge]

Basically I just want to see potential. Inconsistency and rookie mistakes are virtually guaranteed.

[rayzor]

I said right after the draft that we will have 7-8 either starting or playing a major role in what we do and I'm sticking by that.

 

[KB_fan]

39 minutes ago, rayzor said:

I said right after the draft that we will have 7-8 either starting or playing a major role in what we do and I'm sticking by that.

 

One thing I will be curious to see when I dig deeper into the details of the Athletic article will be whether there are patterns by team. Did rebuilding teams with lots of holes produce more rookies who were solid contributors? Certainly there are lots of opportunities for new guys on the 2021 roster. We have lots of holes. Whether the rooks can be coached up to seize the opportunities remains to be seen.

[rayzor]

Just now, KB_fan said:

One thing I will be curious to see when I dig deeper into the details of the Athletic article will be whether there are patterns by team. Did rebuilding teams with lots of holes produce more rookies who were solid contributors? Certainly there are lots of opportunities for new guys on the 2021 roster. We have lots of holes. Whether the rooks can be coached up to seize the opportunities remains to be seen.

yeah, I have 2 reasons for me being so bullish on this class.

1) we got some good and talented guys.

2) we were thin on good and talented guys.

we hit it big and we needed to. 

[kungfoodude]

I would expect 6-8 guys to be on the roster in 3 seasons.

I would expect 2-4 guys to be starters in 3 seasons.

If we get 3-4 starters(for 2+ seasons) out of this class, it was a success, IMO.

[Khyber53]

I'm going to be holding my breath a bit when it comes to saying we had a killer draft class. Our first year GM and Second-year Former College HC passed on some talents in the first round and then spent the whole draft trading back and back and back.

It may work, it might work a bit, it might go down as the headscratchingest draft in recent memory or it could be an epic bust that we're cussing for years. We just honestly don't know.

All of these guys are rookies coming out of the draft -- how they perform in the NFL is admittedly a crap shoot. We have no past history of draft picks for Fitterer to really see the trend. We have a HC trying to build a team his way, but he only turned out a 5-11 record last season while the guy he replaced took over a demonstrably worse team and rode it to the playoffs while battling cancer. 

Not saying there were bad choices throughout, but honestly, they are going to need to prove something pretty quickly to change my skepticism.

 

[Moo Daeng]

We can't be optimistic about the guys we drafted because draft picks rarely pan out but we can get upset for missing out on a few number other draft picks.

Hmmm....

Edited May 18, 2021 by Moo Daeng

[RenoCarolina]

3 hours ago, KB_fan said:

One thing I will be curious to see when I dig deeper into the details of the Athletic article will be whether there are patterns by team. Did rebuilding teams with lots of holes produce more rookies who were solid contributors? Certainly there are lots of opportunities for new guys on the 2021 roster. We have lots of holes. Whether the rooks can be coached up to seize the opportunities remains to be seen.

I bet one pattern you will see is that any team with a second year head-coach and first year GM will see a lot of opportunity for draft picks to become starters.

[kungfoodude]

2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

I'm going to be holding my breath a bit when it comes to saying we had a killer draft class. Our first year GM and Second-year Former College HC passed on some talents in the first round and then spent the whole draft trading back and back and back.

It may work, it might work a bit, it might go down as the headscratchingest draft in recent memory or it could be an epic bust that we're cussing for years. We just honestly don't know.

All of these guys are rookies coming out of the draft -- how they perform in the NFL is admittedly a crap shoot. We have no past history of draft picks for Fitterer to really see the trend. We have a HC trying to build a team his way, but he only turned out a 5-11 record last season while the guy he replaced took over a demonstrably worse team and rode it to the playoffs while battling cancer. 

Not saying there were bad choices throughout, but honestly, they are going to need to prove something pretty quickly to change my skepticism.

 

100% agree. I get the homer instinct to jump on board and believe it was the greatest draft in history. I completely understand where that comes from. However, we have little data on the coaching staff and even less on the new FO. Having a healthy sense of skepticism is probably the best way to look at it. 

Let's just wait and see what it becomes. No overt judgment on it either way. Let it pan out.

[kungfoodude]

Also going to go on record as saying I actually really like PFR's AV stat.