Robby's contract and the implications for DJ

[AU-panther]

There seem to be questions about Robby's new contract and the effect it will have on resigning DJ.  Also some people view it as a bit of an overpay.  In a vacuum, maybe it is, especially if he loses targets to CMC and/or Marshal, but I think sometimes teams look at the position group as a whole when allocating resources.

Lets make some assumptions and then we can run some numbers.

Most reports have Robby's contract around 38m for 3 years, lets call it $13m a year for the next 3 to keep it simple.

Marshall is on a rookie contract that has cap charges of 1m, 1.3m, 1.6m, and  1.8m for the next four years.

Receivers 4, 5, and 6 are pretty much always going to be cheap.  For example Shi and Zylstra are a little less than $1m each.  David Moore is a little over $2m a year for 2 years.  Here again for simplicity sakes lets say $4m a year for WR 4-6.

Moore's cap hit this year is $3.6m.  Cap hit next year with 5th year option is around $11m, but if we resign him it will most likely be an extension and there is a very good chance his 2022 cap hit will be lower.  Even with a "huge contract" in the 18-20m range his cap hits the next 3 years could be something like $5m, $15, and then $25m

Also 6 WRs are 11% of your roster.  

If we put all of this together the cap hit for our 6 WRs in 2021 will be around $21.6m.  Based on a $182m cap that is around 12% allocation of resources.

In 2022 our total cap hit will around $23.3m, which based on a $192m cap (I'll assume it goes up by $10m each year) is around 12% allocation of resources.

In 2023 our total cap hit will around $33.6m, which based on a $202m cap (I'll assume it goes up by $10m each year) is around 17% allocation of resources.

In 2024 Robby is off of the books but DJ is to the expensive part of his cap cost.  Lets assume DJ is $20m and we replace Robby with a rookie making $1m.  Total cap coast is $26.8 which is 13% of the cap based on a $212m salary cap.

As you can see 2021, 2022, and 2024 are all reasonable.  Really only in 2023 does our WR cost get a bit high, and depending on the contract they might could release Robby after 2022 or trade him.

Point is I don't see Robby's contract automatically preventing us from signing DJ to an extension.  Honestly if Marshal develops like alot of thinks the team has done really good job of layering their contracts in the WR group.

What if we don't resign DJ, either he wants too much or maybe Marshal really develops, or a combination of the two.  At that point resigning Robby seems even smarter.  That way we don't lose our top 2 WRs in back to back years.

In a vacuum I understand the argument that Robby's contract might be a bit of an overpay but at the same time the team basically just insured itself some stability for the WR group for the next 3 years.

  

 

 

[therealmjl]

TLDR: DJ will be re-signed  

[CashNewton22]

[panthers55]

Fitterer addressed this in his press conference. He said signing Anderson would have no impact on signing DJ and money was allocated by position group and they had several younger guys on cheap deals and DJ is here for this year and next. I expect his deal will get done next offseason to give him more guaranteed money and lock him up for through 2025.

[AggieLean]

Great thread.

I was worried, but I’ve chilled. We should be able to keep DJ if we want to.

[Moo Daeng]

Dj is on the 4th year before a 5th yeR option. It's too early to be concerned about DJ

[RevJ]

7 hours ago, AU-panther said:

There seem to be questions about Robby's new contract and the effect it will have on resigning DJ.  Also some people view it as a bit of an overpay.  In a vacuum, maybe it is, especially if he loses targets to CMC and/or Marshal, but I think sometimes teams look at the position group as a whole when allocating resources.

Lets make some assumptions and then we can run some numbers.

Most reports have Robby's contract around 38m for 3 years, lets call it $13m a year for the next 3 to keep it simple.

Marshall is on a rookie contract that has cap charges of 1m, 1.3m, 1.6m, and  1.8m for the next four years.

Receivers 4, 5, and 6 are pretty much always going to be cheap.  For example Shi and Zylstra are a little less than $1m each.  David Moore is a little over $2m a year for 2 years.  Here again for simplicity sakes lets say $4m a year for WR 4-6.

Moore's cap hit this year is $3.6m.  Cap hit next year with 5th year option is around $11m, but if we resign him it will most likely be an extension and there is a very good chance his 2022 cap hit will be lower.  Even with a "huge contract" in the 18-20m range his cap hits the next 3 years could be something like $5m, $15, and then $25m

Also 6 WRs are 11% of your roster.  

If we put all of this together the cap hit for our 6 WRs in 2021 will be around $21.6m.  Based on a $182m cap that is around 12% allocation of resources.

In 2022 our total cap hit will around $23.3m, which based on a $192m cap (I'll assume it goes up by $10m each year) is around 12% allocation of resources.

In 2023 our total cap hit will around $33.6m, which based on a $202m cap (I'll assume it goes up by $10m each year) is around 17% allocation of resources.

In 2024 Robby is off of the books but DJ is to the expensive part of his cap cost.  Lets assume DJ is $20m and we replace Robby with a rookie making $1m.  Total cap coast is $26.8 which is 13% of the cap based on a $212m salary cap.

As you can see 2021, 2022, and 2024 are all reasonable.  Really only in 2023 does our WR cost get a bit high, and depending on the contract they might could release Robby after 2022 or trade him.

Point is I don't see Robby's contract automatically preventing us from signing DJ to an extension.  Honestly if Marshal develops like alot of thinks the team has done really good job of layering their contracts in the WR group.

What if we don't resign DJ, either he wants too much or maybe Marshal really develops, or a combination of the two.  At that point resigning Robby seems even smarter.  That way we don't lose our top 2 WRs in back to back years.

In a vacuum I understand the argument that Robby's contract might be a bit of an overpay but at the same time the team basically just insured itself some stability for the WR group for the next 3 years.