Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Realistic Expectations for 4th-7th Rounders

kungfoodude

By kungfoodude,
in Carolina Panthers

 Share

Recommended Posts

kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It's especially perplexing because of how good he looked in camp and preseason. Honestly, he looked like possibly the best rookie WR in the league in preseason. Then... basically he just disappeared.

If he doesn't make any impact this season, he will be one of the bigger busts we have had in recent memory. His wAV/GM is already pretty similar to Dwayne Jarrett. 

Edited by kungfoodude
Link to comment
Share on other sites
LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

If he doesn't make any impact this season, he will be one of the bigger busts we have had in recent memory. His wAV/GM is already pretty similar to Dwayne Jarrett. 

Ah hell, I'm so numb to throwing away 2nd round picks from the Hurney era that 2nd round busts barely even register to me anymore. 😂

  • Pie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

Ah hell, I'm so numb to throwing away 2nd round picks from the Hurney era that 2nd round busts barely even register to me anymore. 😂

TBH, we have rarely had 2nd round picks that are as bad as the Clausen's or Jarrett's. We have had less home run picks than we should be it has mostly been solid players.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ForJimmy Grand Master

ForJimmy

Posted
Posted

I think positions probably change the hit %. For example you probably have a higher chance of hitting on a potential LB, RB, or ILB (definitely K/P) in rounds 4-6 than you would a premium position like QB, Edge, LT, CB etc… Teams overreach for higher valued positions and these other positions seem to have higher valued players lower in the draft. I think Mays has a higher chance to stick at OG with us, especially considering our depth there is lacking.

  • Beer 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

I think positions probably change the hit %. For example you probably have a higher chance of hitting on a potential LB, RB, or ILB (definitely K/P) in rounds 4-6 than you would a premium position like QB, Edge, LT, CB etc… Teams overreach for higher valued positions and these other positions seem to have higher valued players lower in the draft. I think Mays has a higher chance to stick at OG with us, especially considering our depth there is lacking.

I read an analysis article a couple of seasons ago and they found that after the 3rd or 4th round, the highest success rates were almost always OL. But that is also a position that requires five guys to play, so the numbers are naturally stacked.

  • Pie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Eric Shelton, Amino Silatolu, Greg Little all say "Hi!"

Yeah but that is over the span of 27 years. 

Look at our 2nd rounders historically. The hit rates have been pretty damn good. In fact we have had 7 years where our 2nd rounder was significantly better than our 1st rounder.

If you exclude all the years without a 2nd or a 1st, that has happened 7 of 21 times.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah but that is over the span of 27 years. 

Look at our 2nd rounders historically. The hit rates have been pretty damn good. In fact we have had 7 years where our 2nd rounder was significantly better than our 1st rounder.

If you exclude all the years without a 2nd or a 1st, that has happened 7 of 21 times.

I was specifically talking about the Hurney era. 2nd round busts we're very much the norm. Guys like Kalil were very much outliers for Hurney.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Monrowed Veteran

Monrowed

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Here's the way I breakdown draft picks...

Top 10 picks I'm expecting a star. Period.

1st rounders and 2nd rounders I'm looking for an eventual key starter who is going to contribute significantly as a rookie (unless it's a developmental QB pick sitting behind a quality vet).

4th and 5th rounders I expect to make the roster and at least provide serviceable depth for awhile and hopefully develop into more.

6th and 7th rounders are flyers IMO. If you get anything out of them, great. But expectations should be pretty damn low.

 

 

What about third rounders? 
GIF by Achievement Hunter

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

I was specifically talking about the Hurney era. 2nd round busts we're very much the norm. Guys like Kalil were very much outliers for Hurney.

I don't even know that his miss rate was that much higher than our other GM's. I think it was that when he missed, it was literally guys who didn't even belong in the NFL. I can imagine there was a lot of laughing in various draft war rooms at some of those guys getting picked in the 2nd.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I don't even know that his miss rate was that much higher than our other GM's. I think it was that when he missed, it was literally guys who didn't even belong in the NFL. I can imagine there was a lot of laughing in various draft war rooms at some of those guys getting picked in the 2nd.

I would not be shocked if there were some folks when we drafted Amini that were legit like

 

  • Pie 1
  • Flames 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • strato
      Does anyone actually think Bryce will actually be good?

      By strato · Posted

      I admit it. Done it a few times but he had something in that video that I'll confess to.  First, never wanted him in the draft, and really was strongly against selecting him. I don’t really see anything that tells me I am off base yet. So I expect him to maybe look better but even so, her is the point: Donnelly asks if people that want him to fail? He has to kill it this year to get me off of that train.  I feel like him being average or game manager and like, the 23rd best QB if he improves.... I don’t want that again in ’25 and ’26. If our QB is gonna be mediocre, may as well take another shot at better. 
    • raleigh-panther
      RUMORS: Panthers schedule leak

      By raleigh-panther · Posted

      A write up on Panthers schedule from NFL.COM Carolina Panthers 2023 RECORD: 2-15 · NFC SOUTH: 4TH Carolina Panthers' complete 2024 NFL schedule Strength of schedule: .467 (T-29) Bye: Week 11   Three marquee matchups: Week 5: at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET on FOX Week 10: vs. New York Giants, 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network (Munich) Week 12: vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET on CBS   Biggest takeaways: Bryce Young takes on Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix within four weeks. The NFL clumped together the rookie quarterbacks on the Panthers' slate in 2024. Young takes on the Bears' Williams in Week 5, the Commanders' Daniels in Week 7 and the Broncos' Nix in Week 8, giving us an on-field comparison of where the 2023 No. 1 overall pick stands in his development versus some of this year's crop. Heck, if something happens in Atlanta and Michael Penix is in the saddle by Week 6, Young could square off against four consecutive rookie QBs. Not only does the stretch give us a chance to see Young against his peers, but it also gives the Panthers a chance to make some hay against other rebuilding clubs, potentially.  Brutal stretch to close the season. New coach Dave Canales' club had better get off to a hot start, because the end of the campaign looks rough on paper. Coming out of a Week 11 bye, the Panthers play five of their final seven games against 2023 playoff teams, starting with Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and Dallas in consecutive weeks. That's a ruthless stretch for a young team hoping to gain momentum looking toward 2025 and Year 2 of a new regime. But if the Panthers come out with positive results, it will be clear that Canales has built a solid foundation. Shut out of prime time. The Panthers are the lone club without a single prime-time game on the docket for 2024. Carolina's one standalone match comes against the New York Giants in Germany, where they'll meet former Panther Brian Burns, a first-round pick in 2019 who was traded away this offseason. It's a bummer not to have any prime-time games, but we can spin this positively. Canales' young bunch has the opportunity to grow outside the limelight and pressure that comes with those night tilts. Learning to win is a big part of developing in the NFL. If Carolina can string together a bunch of Sunday afternoon victories, there will always be flex options for the league later in the campaign.    -- Kevin Patra
    • jasonluckydog
      Does anyone actually think Bryce will actually be good?

      By jasonluckydog · Posted

      I'm going to say,       NO.   Dude is a bust. He is going to make Ryan Leaf look like a good deal.  
×
×
  • Create New...