No 1 overall pick, the path forward and what you need to know.

[panthersgreenville]

So it’s as clear as day that this season is lost as far as playoffs are concerned but turn that frown upside down because now a new type of playoffs has emerged, and that is the path to the number 1 overall pick.

So who has made these “playoffs” so far.. Well it’s us, Commanders, Lions, Steelers and Texans. In my opinion, if I was a betting man, one of these teams are going to win the “no 1 pick super bowl.” 
 

So who is our biggest threat? Well for starters, the Steelers don’t scare me at all simply because even if they get the no 1 pick and say we get no 2, it’s no biggie because they won’t take another QB in the first round after drafting Pickett anyway despite his struggles. We are most definitely taking one though. I mean sure, they “could” but the Steelers just don’t strike me as a team like the Jets or Browns to take two QBs no 1 overall. So scratch the Steelers as being an enemy. 
 

If I had to choose the next team I’m not so worried about, it’s the Texans but for a different reason. Two big things going for us when it comes to the Texans A. SOS tie breakers and B. They have a tie in their w/l record which means even if they lose out and so do we A. We already beat them with SOS but even if that changes, that tie would mean we would have more actual losses and thus we would leap frog them anyway. 
 

Which brings us to our last two teams, the Lions and Commanders. These are two teams that would definitely take a QB so if they somehow get picks 1 and 2 and we get 3, while it would suck, it still wouldn’t necessarily be a disaster because luckily for us, we picked a good year to have a bad year considering there are 3 legit QBs in this draft between Stroud, Young and Levis. In fact draft experts can’t even decide who should go no 1 between the three of them because they are all three great prospects.

Also, a big wild card in all this is while it would have been great if the Lions and Commanders played each other (they don’t) we do actually play the Lions toward the end of the year, so we do control our own destiny in that regard by simply losing to them. 
 

In summary, yes, this is the NFL and sooo many variables and so much can happen, but 5 games in this is where we stand and as long as we can just stay in that top 3, we will still be in good position to nab a potential franchise QB.

[bigdog10]

Man, how deflating it is to be on the huddle on October 10th and reading threads like these. 
 

We haven’t even made it one calendar month since the start of the 2022 season, and we’re already focused on draft position. 
 

Thanks Tep!

[45catfan]

10 minutes ago, bigdog10 said:

Man, how deflating it is to be on the huddle on October 10th and reading threads like these. 
 

We haven’t even made it one calendar month since the start of the 2022 season, and we’re already focused on draft position. 
 

Thanks Tep!

To be fair, I start to think about the draft this early every year.  I am just digging a little deeper than usual this sesaon.

So, we DO NOT want the #1 overall pick or #2 for that matter.  I am not sold on Young or Stroud.  We want to be behind the Commando-skins.  They will DEFINITELY take one of those guys.  The Lions, Falcons and Texans could be in the market.

Edited October 10, 2022 by 45catfan

[ENC Pantherfan]

I don't see the Lions taking a QB. Goff has been very good this year and the Lions offense is rolling (well at least up until yesterday). They need more defense. 

[Reebis21]

28 minutes ago, panthersgreenville said:

we picked a good year to have a bad year considering there are 3 legit QBs in this draft between Stroud, Young and Levis. In fact draft experts can’t even decide who should go no 1 between the three of them because they are all three great prospects.

I keep telling myself this but at the same time worry that maybe there’s no clear cut consensus because none will be legit franchise QBs. It’s a constant battle in my head.

[ncsdawg]

I'm a big fan of building through the draft, but not at all a fan of playing for the #1 overall pick.  The percentages are not with you.  Since 2000,  Payton and Eli Manning are the only QBs drafted 1st overall that actually won a superbowl with the team that originally drafted him (Payton drafted in 1998, Stafford was traded to LA).  Other notable #1 overalls that made the superbowl but lost in that time period include Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Cam Newton).  Of the 28 superbowl QB's since 2000, only 6 were drafted 1st overall.  On the other hand, there are 4 superbowl winning QB's in that time frame that are questionable NFL starters at best - Foles, Flacco, Johnson, and Dilfer.  

Usually what happens is that teams that draft a QB #1 overall aren't very good teams.  They rush the rookie into service and things go poorly from there.  It looks more like a list of walking woundeds than franchise saviors.  

[Tbe]

Bryce is smaller than Corral and Levis is Mel Kiper’s favorite.

It doesn’t appear this is a great QB year past Stroud.

[trueblade]

Draft classes are more than just the first pick. Unfortunately, Fitts again traded away future picks.

Here's a look at the Panthers' 2023 picks.

— Their own first-rounder

— Their own second-rounder

— Their own fourth-rounder

— Their own fifth-rounder

[45catfan]

1 minute ago, Tbe said:

Bryce is smaller than Corral and Levis is Mel Kiper’s favorite.

It doesn’t appear this is a great QB year past Stroud.

Not as top heavy, but I'm okay with that.  I want to wait until later in the round or round 2 to nab our QB.  This class is deep, it doesn't have a whole lot of hype outside of Young and Stroud.  I'm cool with that because production wins games, not hype.

[Growl]

16 minutes ago, ENC Pantherfan said:

I don't see the Lions taking a QB. Goff has been very good this year and the Lions offense is rolling (well at least up until yesterday). They need more defense. 

you don’t pass on an elite QB prospect because you have jared Goff 

If Goff was playing at that high a level, they wouldn’t be competing for the top pick 

[Growl]

6 minutes ago, ncsdawg said:

I'm a big fan of building through the draft, but not at all a fan of playing for the #1 overall pick.  The percentages are not with you.  Since 2000,  Payton and Eli Manning are the only QBs drafted 1st overall that actually won a superbowl with the team that originally drafted him (Payton drafted in 1998, Stafford was traded to LA).  Other notable #1 overalls that made the superbowl but lost in that time period include Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Cam Newton).  Of the 28 superbowl QB's since 2000, only 6 were drafted 1st overall.  On the other hand, there are 4 superbowl winning QB's in that time frame that are questionable NFL starters at best - Foles, Flacco, Johnson, and Dilfer.  

Usually what happens is that teams that draft a QB #1 overall aren't very good teams.  They rush the rookie into service and things go poorly from there.  It looks more like a list of walking woundeds than franchise saviors.  

now do the numbers for QBs drafted 38 overall

[Tbe]

2 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Not as top heavy, but I'm okay with that.  I want to wait until later in the round or round 2 to nab our QB.  This class is deep, it doesn't have a whole lot of hype outside of Young and Stroud.  I'm cool with that because production wins games, not hype.

Have you ever seen that stats around the success rate of QBs take outside the 1st round?

[45catfan]

1 minute ago, trueblade said:

Draft classes are more than just the first pick. Unfortunately, Fitts again traded away future picks.

Here's a look at the Panthers' 2023 picks.

— Their own first-rounder

— Their own second-rounder

— Their own fourth-rounder

— Their own fifth-rounder

Not that it really matters, but I think we have a 7th too.  IIRC, we traded it away, but got it back in another trade...Daley, I think.  The 3rd rounder loss stings, those guys generally contribute even in their rookie season.

[trueblade]

1 minute ago, 45catfan said:

Not that it really matters, but I think we have a 7th too.  IIRC, we traded it away, but got it back in another trade...Daley, I think.  The 3rd rounder loss stings, those guys generally contribute even in their rookie season.

You're probably right. My list of picks was sourced from an article in July. 

Edited October 10, 2022 by trueblade