Player Evaluation and Core Building

[Mr. Scot]

There are, shall we say, a few areas where I have issue with John Fox and Marty Hurney. Player evaluation is one of the biggest. Or more correctly, a specific area of player evaluation.

When it comes to the draft, since the hire of Don Gregory it's been arguably on par with other teams. Yes, there have been misses (and every team has those) but there have been hits too. At the very least, you'd have to say the situation is a lot better than it was through 2005 under Tony Softli.

What about free agency and trades? I'm a longtime critic of pro personnel guy Marc Koncz. In fairness though, while we've had some definite free agency misses and/or overpayments (Justin Hartwig, D J Hackett, Idrees Bashir) there have also been some decent unexpected finds (Tyler Brayton, Mark Jones, Keydrick Vincent). And if you look back at Marty Hurney's trade history, it's fair to say he comes out on the good side more often than not.

So where are we going wrong?

The area where I find myself most disappointed is in who the braintrust has chosen to be their cornerstones.

In this and prior seasons, Fox and Hurney have given big contracts to the following players:

Landon Johnson - Three years, 10 million dollars (one of the worst of the recent moves)

Chris Harris - Five years, 13.3 million (good? yeah, but really this good?)

Ma'ake Kemoeatu - Five years, 23 million dollars (ditto)

Damione Lewis - Six years, 24 million dollars (better as a rotational player)

Chris Gamble - Six years, 53.5 million (again, good, but as good as his payday?)

Julius Peppers - One year, 16 million dollars (discussed ad nauseum)

Jake Delhomme - Five years, 42.5 million (the real numbers are in dispute, but still...)

In fairness, they have made some good decisions, doling out money to Jordan Gross, Steve Smith and Travelle Wharton among others. But go back even further and you can see more evidence in the other direction. Take for example the decision to designate DeShaun Foster as a transition player (after hanging on to Stephen Davis too long) giving Todd Sauerbrun the franchise tag, overpaying for Ken Lucas and the long debated Morgan/Witherspoon decision.

And for the coup de grace, we've twice gone into the season hearing the "21 of 22 starters returning" mantra being chanted by the front office. Both of those seasons ended in transcendental mediocrity.

Players are gained and lost every season. Sometimes you get better, sometimes worse. What coaches and GMs try to do is to create a solid core of players around which to build the team each year. It's the core building where some of the more questionable decisions have been made.

Are some of these players good? Yep, but I'd have to question if they were actually as good as their paychecks. And those are the decisions the front office has to be smart enough to make right, and make work. Two of the more hotly debated ones came in this past offseason with Delhomme and Peppers, but those aren't the only decisions that have brought us to where we are now.

Bottom Line: As I look back, it seems to me that Fox and Hurney have had more misses than hits when deciding who they wanted to be the core of the Panthers.

And that, as much as anything else, is why I'm ready for change.

[top dawg]

All NFL teams have hits and misses, and honestly the only real problem that I have with that list is Delhomme's and Johnson's contracts. Even Pep's contract may not be a "great" value, but I totally understand why they felt it had to be done, and it was probably the correct move under the circumstances.

To me, Jake was grossly overpaid to begin with, and the new contract was nonsensical, and has played a major role as to where we are today.

As for the rest, I believe that they can be justified. Gamble has been solid. He may not be the best corner out there, but he has to be top 10 conversation. Harris is one of the best hard hitters in the game, and it's not like he's getting top dollar. We've seen the negative impact of missing Kemo, and imho our line improved markedly when we acquired Lewis.

Bottom line:

Jake Delhomme's contract is the only one where I'd cry "Bloody Murder! "

With Landon Johnson's I'd say "What the ***k?"

Everybody else, "OK, I can see that."

And that's not only looking at the time/context of the signings, but even now.

[Kevin Greene]

Even more central to the core of Gross, Gamble, and Smitty, players under big contracts who must perform for years for us is the younger, equally talented players I consider the core.

Deangelo Williams, Jon Beason, Thomas Davis and Jeff Otah.

Perhaps even Ryan Kalil, Everett Brown and Charles Johnson.

I agree it's time for a change, and as much as feasible the new regime needs to keep this nucleus together.

Of your free agents listed, I'd say Chris Harris at less than 3 miilion a year is quite a bargain, the others.........

[Brooklyn Bully]

Good post, Mr. Scot. I agree with most of it, but do think Gamble is worth it. Sure his numbers go up and down yearly but he'll break the franchise record for INTs soon I do believe. I think the scheme is what has hurt him the most.

[rayzor]

you also have to remember guys like hartwig and keyshawn...that was a lot of money lost there. landon johnson has to go down as a legendary screw up. jake's contract...the peppers situation...all of this amounts to major mistakes. you can unbderstand why they did what they did in all of them to a point but there has to be some accountability.

we could look more at the successes that has come about and say it is enough to over look the failures but here's the problem i have with that....he gets paid to succeed.

if i hire an HR person who is in charge of recruiting an hiring, i expect there to be successes. that goes along with the job. you get paid to succeed. i'm not going to give you any special reward for doing it, that's your job...to find me good people, good workers that will help the company. i expect you to do well. if you make some bad hiring choices, however, ones that cost the company money then we have a problem, especially if it becomes a recurring problem. i don't pay you to fail. if you fail too often, you are going to have to go and i'll find someone who will fail less. i'll find someone who will make better choices.

hurney has had his good decisions. he has found some gems for sure, but that's what he's supposed to do. he's no hero for that. he hasn't made himself indispensable for doing what richardson paid the man to do. if he had brought in coaches and players who made this team a constant playoff contender, a team with a consistent winning record...then i might be hesitant to move on from him. considering that we have had a mediocre team for years, he has to be considered as part of the blame for that. if you are a team that wants to be the best or in the discussion...then you find someone who is going to put together that team. hurney hasn't shown himself as one being able to do that.

[kornicova]

you also have to remember guys like hartwig and keyshawn...that was a lot of money lost there. landon johnson has to go down as a legendary screw up. jake's contract...the peppers situation...all of this amounts to major mistakes. you can unbderstand why they did what they did in all of them to a point but there has to be some accountability.

we could look more at the successes that has come about and say it is enough to over look the failures but here's the problem i have with that....he gets paid to succeed.

if i hire an HR person who is in charge of recruiting an hiring, i expect there to be successes. that goes along with the job. you get paid to succeed. i'm not going to give you any special reward for doing it, that's your job...to find me good people, good workers that will help the company. i expect you to do well. if you make some bad hiring choices, however, ones that cost the company money then we have a problem, especially if it becomes a recurring problem. i don't pay you to fail. if you fail too often, you are going to have to go and i'll find someone who will fail less. i'll find someone who will make better choices.

hurney has had his good decisions. he has found some gems for sure, but that's what he's supposed to do. he's no hero for that. he hasn't made himself indispensable for doing what richardson paid the man to do. if he had brought in coaches and players who made this team a constant playoff contender, a team with a consistent winning record...then i might be hesitant to move on from him. considering that we have had a mediocre team for years, he has to be considered as part of the blame for that. if you are a team that wants to be the best or in the discussion...then you find someone who is going to put together that team. hurney hasn't shown himself as one being able to do that.

Can't be said better than that. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

[Sandy Claws]

It's a shame that the board imploded last fall. It would be interesting to see how many posters criticized these moves at the time they were made. It seems as though a lot of people have Fox and Hurney in the crosshairs of their hindsite and are blasting away without stepping back and looking at the broader impact. Lewis and Kemo were results of Jenkins. We didn't know what he could bring back from the injuries so had to pay to ensure we had some replacements and looking at DTs nowadays the pay isn't far from market. Before the board crashed, there were posters wondering which of the big 3 FAs (Gamble, Gross, Peppers) would be gone since there was NO WAY to sign all 3. Landon Johnson sure is a lot of ducats for a back-up but before he got here Davis was making something less than 5 tackles a game. Now he records over 8. Yes I know scheme changes etc., but his output has almost doubled. Maybe a little competition made him step it up.

Nitpicking and whining = entertainment for some. Keep it up

[Jangler]

I thought it was "corps" ?

[rayzor]

It's a shame that the board imploded last fall. It would be interesting to see how many posters criticized these moves at the time they were made. It seems as though a lot of people have Fox and Hurney in the crosshairs of their hindsite and are blasting away without stepping back and looking at the broader impact. Lewis and Kemo were results of Jenkins. We didn't know what he could bring back from the injuries so had to pay to ensure we had some replacements and looking at DTs nowadays the pay isn't far from market. Before the board crashed, there were posters wondering which of the big 3 FAs (Gamble, Gross, Peppers) would be gone since there was NO WAY to sign all 3. Landon Johnson sure is a lot of ducats for a back-up but before he got here Davis was making something less than 5 tackles a game. Now he records over 8. Yes I know scheme changes etc., but his output has almost doubled. Maybe a little competition made him step it up.

Nitpicking and whining = entertainment for some. Keep it up

hindsight is what you use to judge performance. nitpicking is a part of it. you don't know what were mistakes or successes until after the fact.

not really seeing what the problem is here.

[pstall]

hindsight is what you use to judge performance. nitpicking is a part of it. you don't know what were mistakes or successes until after the fact.

not really seeing what the problem is here.

Sounds familiar doesn't it.

The scouts for the Panthers in the WR area and have hit more foul balls than home runs.

Look when Smith and Moose were drafted. There has been ZERO hits in that area. Its so glaring it's blinding.

[panthers55]

Sounds familiar doesn't it.

The scouts for the Panthers in the WR area and have hit more foul balls than home runs.

Look when Smith and Moose were drafted. There has been ZERO hits in that area. Its so glaring it's blinding.

I am starting to wonder if we have misses or just fail to develop players in this area and play to their strengths. Seems we have struggles for years to find the right guys and even guys like Keyshawn who produced elsewhere underdeliver here. Seems we may need a new wide receiver coach as well if we replace Davidson.

[thefuzz]

We have not been a very well run team from the FO perspective.

Our cap situation is stupid, and our history is completely missing players outside of the 1st is pretty glaring, when the injuries pile up. And let's not even start on the reluctance of finding a solution for the most important position on the team.

Hurney needs to go.

[rayzor]

I am starting to wonder if we have misses or just fail to develop players in this area and play to their strengths. Seems we have struggles for years to find the right guys and even guys like Keyshawn who produced elsewhere underdeliver here. Seems we may need a new wide receiver coach as well if we replace Davidson.

consider what WRs we drafted have performed well other places....do you see much success?

we have drafted only 6 WRs this decade. smith is the only one who has and is doing anything. the rest of the group includes jarrett, ryne robinson, keary colbert, drew carter, and walter young (what you don't remember his one reception for 17 yards against pitt in '06?).

i see it as an organizational failure. smith was a lucky pick. colbert and carter have gone on to do exactly what? pretty much nothing. we can't pick them well, we can't develop them well, and we cant use them well.

i would say richard williamson is part of the problem. he's been there since '95 and except for the time he was OC with siefert, he's been the WR coach. he may have been effective last decade but i would have a hard time backing that up this decade. a lot of the problem is also with our ability to bring in good WR projects or players.

the biggest problem would have to lie with fox, though. it and the QB position, with the exception of a couple instances, have been low on the list of priorities. philosophically it appears the passing game just isn't important. it's only function is to open up the run. if you have a QB/WR combo who is able to make the occasional big play downfield then you have just enough. the goal has been not to dominate there, just to good enough to help out the other part of your offense. that is where i see the problem....they see the goal of the passing game as just an aid to opening the run and in doing so miss out on many opportunities to dominate.

the problem many teams have on offense is that they just aren't balanced enough. what is happening to teams that are decidedly run heavy? answer: they struggle to win. what about those teams that are overwhelmingly pass heavy? they have struggled as well. the teams that are doing the best offensively are those who have found that balance in the running game and passing game. they see both as a priority.

look at the vikings....they were very run heavy prior to this year and, while very talented on offense and defense, they had maxed out their potential. they bring in favre and harvin and what happens? also look at the cards and the saints...both very pass happy in recent years but both for the most part had struggled. what happens when they bring more talent to the run game and utilize it more? they win.

now it isn't just the balance on offense that has helped them win...it's not just striking a balance between run game and passing game....it's an overall balance in offense and defense. you work hard to build all aspects of your team, not just focus on one or two areas.

until we have an organizational decision to bring balance to the whole game, we will have a team who is constantly up and down and very frustrating to deal with.

there is no reason that the panthers can't achieve that balance. they are provided the same opportunities as every other team and have the same salary cap to work with.

[Mr. Scot]

I thought it was "corps" ?

"Corps" is a group of guys working together (i.e. a receiving corps)

"Core" describes the players who are the heart of your franchise (i.e. the core of the team).

Those two get misused a lot.