Our former WR1 update

[ForJimmy]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

That depends on who's doing the evaluating.

You've got ideas and opinions as far and wide as Andy Reid to Jim Irsay, so it's kind of hard to generalize the NFL as a whole.

That’s why I said to a degree. If a player throws up elite stats against strong competition, they are getting some attention. QB rating under pressure is a nice one they look at as well. 

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, ForJimmy said:

That’s why I said to a degree. If a player throws up elite stats against strong competition, they are getting some attention. QB rating under pressure is a nice one they look at as well. 

I get it, but I'm not a big fan of stats as an evaluating tool.

Stats give you guys like Tim Couch, Timmy Chang and such. If you don't look at the context, you get fooled. That's why I've always preferred the eye test to stat measures.

It's the old Mark Twain line about liars, damn liars and statisticians.

[ForJimmy]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

I get it, but I'm not a big fan of stats as an evaluating tool.

Stats give you guys like Tim Couch, Timmy Chang and such. If you don't look at the context, you get fooled. That's why I've always preferred the eye test to stat measures.

It's the old Mark Twain line about liars, damn liars and statisticians.

It's too broad of a category to ignore.  Like I said rating under pressure, catchable ball %, completion %, release time the list can go on and on.  It's definitely something they look at plus game tape (most important to me) and ceiling all get thrown in there.  There are definitely misleading stats (Zappe comes to mind) when it's lesser competition or different offenses (Corral) can make them appear better so it's only a portion of the tape, but the top picks for QBs generally have great stats to back their tapes unless it's purely a potential picks (AR and Allen).  

[Mr. Scot]

10 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

It's too broad of a category to ignore.  Like I said rating under pressure, catchable ball %, completion %, release time the list can go on and on.  It's definitely something they look at plus game tape (most important to me) and ceiling all get thrown in there.  There are definitely misleading stats (Zappe comes to mind) when it's lesser competition or different offenses (Corral) can make them appear better so it's only a portion of the tape, but the top picks for QBs generally have great stats to back their tapes unless it's purely a potential picks (AR and Allen).  

Given the high variance in level of competition at the college level, it's really hard for me to trust college stats much at all.

[ForJimmy]

10 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Given the high variance in level of competition at the college level, it's really hard for me to trust college stats much at all.

You don’t trust a player’s release time? Their rating under pressure? Even 40 time/catch radius can be considered a statistic. It’s too broad of a category to completely ignore. Picking only on upside can be more dangerous than only on stats. It’s take a combination of info IMO. For example if a players leads the NCAA in sacks and plays in a tough division I’m definitely looking at that player. Game is the most important though IMO.

[Mr. Scot]

46 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

You don’t trust a player’s release time? Their rating under pressure? Even 40 time/catch radius can be considered a statistic. It’s too broad of a category to completely ignore. Picking only on upside can be more dangerous than only on stats. It’s take a combination of info IMO. For example if a players leads the NCAA in sacks and plays in a tough division I’m definitely looking at that player. Game is the most important though IMO.

To me it's just overblown.

I'd put it this way. Is a guy who runs a 4.4 really all that different in game speed to a guy who runs a 4.6?

Every year we ooh and ahh about the fastest guys at the combine but how many of those guys actually wind up having memorable pro careers?

I know it's "a game of inches" and all but it isn't always the guys who put up the stats that become the best players.

[Jon Snow]

50 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

You don’t trust a player’s release time? Their rating under pressure? Even 40 time/catch radius can be considered a statistic. It’s too broad of a category to completely ignore. Picking only on upside can be more dangerous than only on stats. It’s take a combination of info IMO. For example if a players leads the NCAA in sacks and plays in a tough division I’m definitely looking at that player. Game is the most important though IMO.

I will offer this one bit of advice.  Before you try to determine who will be a top qb coming out of college you should wait until they finish their last year.  Year after year I hear about how great some qb is as a junior only to see them struggle their senior year season. It happens every year. 

Well, 2 pieces of advice. Don't draft USC qb's. 

[jasonluckydog]

5 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

Can't predict trade ups.  Especially for QBs.  

I feel pretty confident that at worst Will Levis would have been available. 

[SCO96]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I will offer this one bit of advice.  Before you try to determine who will be a top qb coming out of college you should wait until they finish their last year.  Year after year I hear about how great some qb is as a junior only to see them struggle their senior year season. It happens every year. 

Well, 2 pieces of advice. Don't draft USC qb's. 

OR OHIO STATES'!

[ForJimmy]

19 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I will offer this one bit of advice.  Before you try to determine who will be a top qb coming out of college you should wait until they finish their last year.  Year after year I hear about how great some qb is as a junior only to see them struggle their senior year season. It happens every year. 

Well, 2 pieces of advice. Don't draft USC qb's. 

There are prospects that have been as close to locks to go number 1 as possible.  Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence most recently.  I know what you are saying though Arizona could fall in love with another player like Sanders or Williams could get a nasty injury, however odds are Williams is that top pick and teams are already tanking for him.  He was great his freshman year and top of the league his sophomore year.  So far there hasn't been a drop-off and it would be surprising if there was one considering his offense.  

*His dad is already hinting at him possibly staying another year if needed.  So this could definitely prevent him from going number 1.  

Edited September 14, 2023 by ForJimmy

[ForJimmy]

4 minutes ago, jasonluckydog said:

I feel pretty confident that at worst Will Levis would have been available. 

He wasn't a top 3 QB and this board would have exploded if we spent a top 10 pick on him.  

[SCO96]

8 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

There are prospects that have been as close to locks to go number 1 as possible.  Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence most recently.  I know what you are saying though Arizona could fall in love with another player like Sanders or Williams could get a nasty injury, however odds are Williams is that top pick and teams are already tanking for him.  He was great his freshman year and top of the league his sophomore year.  So far there hasn't been a drop-off and it would be surprising if there was one considering his offense.  

*His dad is already hinting at him possibly staying another year if needed.  So this could definitely prevent him from going number 1.  

I think Williams should stay in school for his senior year if the Cardinals or Bears have the #1 and #2 picks in the draft.

[ForJimmy]

8 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

I think Williams should stay in school for his senior year if the Cardinals or Bears have the #1 and #2 picks in the draft.

That or just pull an Eli and demand they trade you.

[NorthTryon]

On 9/13/2023 at 8:39 PM, Cpt slay a ho said:

I’m not Into college much but I feel that way for nearly every top qb yearly, most these guys play on suped up college teams with nfl talent scattered along the offense and then when they are drafted are asked to elevate guys that probably couldn’t redshirt at their alma mater. 

I think bears went mostly defense I. The recent draft too

either way I hope, which is wishful at this point, we surround Young with as much talent offensively as possible so he doesn’t follow the same path 
 

 

I seen a graphic yesterday that laid out the superlatives of most of the playrs/team that Fields walked into at Ohio State after they got to the league and it was staggering! That's what I said about Bryce Sunday. He didn't have to worry about safeties playing the robber position at Alabama because if they did it was immediate over the top TDs due to the created players he had at WR. There were small windows for that Sunday, but he had to think he was making the easy play for the crossing route. He definitely would've been more apt to look deep on those coverages at Alabama. I seen him do it in the Tennessee game last year.