Smitty on the 2024 WR Draft Class (w/cliffnotes)

[Bear Hands]

1 hour ago, jtm said:

Are we seriously writing off Mingo after one year.  Rookie WRs rarely explode their first year in the NFL.  

Rookie WRs have been making instant impacts for the past 5-6 years, trending away from that former idea.  

I mean, look just in the past 2 years, I count at least 13+ easy who went in and immediately made an impact.

Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, Puca Nacua, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Drake London, George Pickens, JSN...Wicks & Demario Douglas even turned it on.

 

[jtm]

On 2/20/2024 at 5:56 PM, Captain Morgan said:

 

especially with the situation he was thrown in to.  A lot of our recent draft picks have looked bad, but consider how many coaches and coordinators they've been handed.  Some of these guys have had 2 different head coaches in the same season twice.  We need stability to give these guys a chance to get better. 

Agree and I'm giving most players a pass last year with the sh@t show that they endured and the OL is included in this.  Reich ran more of a zone blocking run scheme versus Wilks downhill style and our OL is built to go forward, not sideways.  

[csx]

On 2/21/2024 at 6:43 AM, Bear Hands said:

Rookie WRs have been making instant impacts for the past 5-6 years, trending away from that former idea.  

I mean, look just in the past 2 years, I count at least 13+ easy who went in and immediately made an impact.

Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, Puca Nacua, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Drake London, George Pickens, JSN...Wicks & Demario Douglas even turned it on.

 

How many were catching passes from Bryce Young ? Many of those were catching passes from veterans and hall of fame qbs.

Mingo would look better playing for Reid, McVay with Mahomes, Stafford, etc 

[csx]

First round picks going to good teams with good QBs playing better than Mingo going to our mess with Bryce Young isn't that meaningful. This year is a big opportunity for him with Canales

[Mage]

51 minutes ago, csx said:

How many were catching passes from Bryce Young ? Many of those were catching passes from veterans and hall of fame qbs.

Mingo would look better playing for Reid, McVay with Mahomes, Stafford, etc 

Are we going to just ignore the fact Mingo's hands are terrible?  How would playing with a different QB change that?

The reason I have very little faith in Mingo improving is that he's built to be a possession receiver, but he has terrible hands.  It just doesn't compute.  And he's not nearly good enough of an athlete to overcome that major issue.  It was an issue for him in college.  It was an issue for him last year.  And hands aren't something that just get better over time, not by the time you get to the NFL.

Mingo is like a shorter Jonathan Baldwin

Edited February 23 by Mage

[csx]

1 hour ago, Mage said:

Are we going to just ignore the fact Mingo's hands are terrible?  How would playing with a different QB change that?

The reason I have very little faith in Mingo improving is that he's built to be a possession receiver, but he has terrible hands.  It just doesn't compute.  And he's not nearly good enough of an athlete to overcome that major issue.  It was an issue for him in college.  It was an issue for him last year.  And hands aren't something that just get better over time, not by the time you get to the NFL.

Mingo is like a shorter Jonathan Baldwin

Let's look at numbers to get some context. 

For 1 his drop rate is roughly half of what Nacua had.  Nacua had %8.1 drop rate while Mingo had 4.7% drop rate

While Nacua enjoyed a 73% catchable balls while Mingo had 55% catchable  balls. Fan assumptions are not something to base debates off when numbers exist 

Everyone loved Nacua but he had nearly double the drop rate being served much better passes. He produced with the benefit of a HOF QB and great coaching

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php?team=CAR

Edited February 23 by csx

[Mage]

1 hour ago, csx said:

While Nacua enjoyed a 73% catchable balls while Mingo had 55% catchable  balls. Fan assumptions are not something to base debates off when numbers exist 

Everyone loved Nacua but he had nearly double the drop rate being served much better passes. He produced with the benefit of a HOF QB and great coaching

So, watching them play, you think Nacua and Mingo are on the same level?

[Bear Hands]

10 hours ago, csx said:

How many were catching passes from Bryce Young ? Many of those were catching passes from veterans and hall of fame qbs.

Mingo would look better playing for Reid, McVay with Mahomes, Stafford, etc 

I’m countering the notion that rookie WRs don’t make impacts. They absolutely do this day/age and have been.

How good Mingo is, ehh that’s still TBD. Last year’s offense wasn’t one that allowed for much to happen for anyone but he had some notable speed bumps. Hard to know for sure at this stage.

[csx]

12 minutes ago, Bear Hands said:

I’m countering the notion that rookie WRs don’t make impacts. They absolutely do this day/age and have been.

How good Mingo is, ehh that’s still TBD. Last year’s offense wasn’t one that allowed for much to happen for anyone but he had some notable speed bumps. Hard to know for sure at this stage.

I'm not proclaiming anything about him but his struggles have obviously been overblown or at least misdiagnosed. Hands weren't his problem

[Tr3ach]

There are reasons opposing secondaries didnt respect our receivers at all.  They had no fear of getting beat by any of our receivers and they played like it the entire game.  Mingo was part of that.  You can say bad qb play and oline play was too obviously,  but dbs were never worried about any of our receivers.  They never worried about getting beat over the top.  They stood flat footed to come play the run, they jumped every single short route because they knew the receivers we have werent good enough to punish them for it.  

[Mr Mojo Risin]

On 2/19/2024 at 7:33 PM, ECHornet said:

I disagree with him on Worthy being a body catcher. He shows elite hands catching in his highlights. He pairs that with an ability to make something out of nothing and he’s a great returner. I like him with our 2nd rounder. He does comp him as a taller Tank Dell so I’d take that all day. (The very first clip in the video below shows one of the toughest hands catches WR face in football)
 

 

Then he mentions Legette as a “better” DK Metcalf. It’s not going to happen, but if Legette slips to the 3rd like some mocks are pushing, adding both Xaviers to our WR core would completely flip that room for us. 

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Smitty counted that first catch as a body catch with the way he traps the ball to his body. He does a great job of tracking the ball and I don't have a particular issue with how he "caught" it but he definitely pins it into his body like most body catches. Still a great play regardless though.

[kungfoodude]

On 2/20/2024 at 6:43 PM, Bear Hands said:

Rookie WRs have been making instant impacts for the past 5-6 years, trending away from that former idea.  

I mean, look just in the past 2 years, I count at least 13+ easy who went in and immediately made an impact.

Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, Puca Nacua, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Drake London, George Pickens, JSN...Wicks & Demario Douglas even turned it on.

 

Yeah, that is on old school mentality.

TBH, we are probably a decade into rookie WR's making instant impacts.

The NFL offenses have changed to where the learning curve is not what it once was. It's easier for a rookie WR to play well.

Hence why it is so infuriating that we have drafted guys like TMJ and Mingo.

[Bear Hands]

Going back to some of the players he liked, I do think Jha'quan Jackson out of Tulane is one to keep an eye on if we double dip. He definitely seems like one of the deeper prospects that will have some NFL action and people will be like, "who is that guy? where'd he come from?"  

Sneaky YAC guy with shiftiness.  A muscle bound speedy 5'9.  KR/PR.   Could have a Demario Douglas type impact year 1 with some coaching up needed.  A few injury red flags that could make him a R5-6 guy to just take a flier on late.

Another mid rounder to watch out for: Anthony Gould.  Had a nice year, good Shrine game, and he seems to have a high floor.  Is at least in the middle of the pack class wise in most metrics.

I also see why Ja'Lynn Polk is easy to like.  He made big plays, in big games.  Solid in contested catch situations (over 55%), good size, quickness, route running, toughness.  Fun watch.  

Between him, McConkey and Troy Franklin, I think the guy at 33 could be one of those names (if) we go WR.  

   

[Turtle]

Love hearing Smitty monologue but who is this dude always with him in these clips???

I feel like even smitty is looking at this dude like STFU when he tries to say more than a handful of words