Who Has to Be Off the Board to Trade Back?

[MHS831]

Not saying I am right and you all are wrong, but I strongly believe in developing your rookies through errors and bruises and not by flooding people at their position until someone rises.  For this reason, and it is hard to say at times, I hesitate to bring in a veteran or a high draft pick where a first or second year player is developing.   I have seen too many players become good after we give up on them--and others become good years 2 or 3 (Charles Johnson, Greg Hardy, Josh Norman, Steve Smith, Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, etc.) so I believe addressing the positions where you have NOTHING or AGING players.

For example, I think I might not prioritize these positions as much as others:

1. Wide Receiver--(developing players) while it is hard for me to say that XL might step up in year 2, but he has all the tools.  Coker will get better as well.  AT is back.  Maybe adding an WR#1 is counterproductive right now.  Add a WR, but the priority could go somewhere else.  Have faith in your developing players.  We need another WR, don't get me wrong.

2. Tight End--(developing player) Sanders flashed enough to know that he has a chance to be a good TE.  Again, we need to add a TE, but maybe we don't need the best TE in the draft.

3. Center--developing, established player) I have repeatedly said that Cade Mays did a good job at C.  He beat out Christensen and outperformed Corbett when he was healthy.  Maybe depth at the end of the draft, but not early.

Priorities

Defensive line. (Aging player, no player)  We get Brown back and have a "meh" Robinson who is 31 or so.  We need a DT/NT who can take on double teams and get to the passer.  We need a DE behind 31-year old Robinson.  

Safety.  This is easy. (No players) We have one, a 2024 UDFA.  We need to upgrade in free agency and draft.

ILB.  (aging player) Not behind Wallace, a developing player entering year 2, but behind Jewell, an aging veteran (30).

Edge. (aging players) We have Wonnum and Clowney for now, but we really need to get a young super star to groom for the future--I think we need 2, a strong and rush edge.

CB--(no player) if we don't re-sign Jackson or find a starter nearly as good as Horn, we need a starter at CB.  Nobody behind him developing, since Smith Wade seems to be the Nickel.  I think this gets addressed before the draft, however.

[kungfoodude]

Hunter, McMillian, Johnson. 

Maybe Graham, not 100% sold on him as a top 10 elite guy yet.

Literally that is it so far. Maybe someone really makes a rise but I rather doubt it. Hence why I am on team trade down if we get pick up another 2nd and some 3rd/4th round picks. 

I am convinced the best move for us is trading down and that is even considering that our front office is overwhelmingly the worst in the NFL.

[Camp Fodder]

2 hours ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

If there’s not much difference in moving back a couple spots, finding a good offer might be an issue.

If a QB falls it wouldn’t 

[45catfan]

2 minutes ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

JJ McCarthy pulled it off.  It can be done.

True, but it's a different dynamic this go around.  Last year the drop off was after QB6, this year it's after QB2.  So once the Falcons unexpectedly took Penix at #8 (being injured) that left only two options for starters with two teams needing starting QBs.  It lined up almost too perfectly.  The Vikings and Broncos knew there was no chance in hell that McCarthy or Nix was sliding to them in the second round if they didn't pull the trigger.  Maybe it was a bit high for them, but not egregiously so.  Taking Dart or even Ewers in the top half of round 1 this year would be reaches of immense proportions.  Again, all the teams at the back end of round 1 have their starting QBs. Go figure that one, playoff teams having a franchise QB.  Possibly the Rams look for a guy to take over for Stafford in a year or two, but I highly doubt it.

[45catfan]

13 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Not saying I am right and you all are wrong, but I strongly believe in developing your rookies through errors and bruises and not by flooding people at their position until someone rises.  For this reason, and it is hard to say at times, I hesitate to bring in a veteran or a high draft pick where a first or second year player is developing.   I have seen too many players become good after we give up on them--and others become good years 2 or 3 (Charles Johnson, Greg Hardy, Josh Norman, Steve Smith, Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, etc.) so I believe addressing the positions where you have NOTHING or AGING players.

For example, I think I might not prioritize these positions as much as others:

1. Wide Receiver--(developing players) while it is hard for me to say that XL might step up in year 2, but he has all the tools.  Coker will get better as well.  AT is back.  Maybe adding an WR#1 is counterproductive right now.  Add a WR, but the priority could go somewhere else.  Have faith in your developing players.  We need another WR, don't get me wrong.

2. Tight End--(developing player) Sanders flashed enough to know that he has a chance to be a good TE.  Again, we need to add a TE, but maybe we don't need the best TE in the draft.

3. Center--developing, established player) I have repeatedly said that Cade Mays did a good job at C.  He beat out Christensen and outperformed Corbett when he was healthy.  Maybe depth at the end of the draft, but not early.

Priorities

Defensive line. (Aging player, no player)  We get Brown back and have a "meh" Robinson who is 31 or so.  We need a DT/NT who can take on double teams and get to the passer.  We need a DE behind 31-year old Robinson.  

Safety.  This is easy. (No players) We have one, a 2024 UDFA.  We need to upgrade in free agency and draft.

ILB.  (aging player) Not behind Wallace, a developing player entering year 2, but behind Jewell, an aging veteran (30).

Edge. (aging players) We have Wonnum and Clowney for now, but we really need to get a young super star to groom for the future--I think we need 2, a strong and rush edge.

CB--(no player) if we don't re-sign Jackson or find a starter nearly as good as Horn, we need a starter at CB.  Nobody behind him developing, since Smith Wade seems to be the Nickel.  I think this gets addressed before the draft, however.

Edge is the only position that we have to get early.  DL, ILB and S can be had later on, no issues there.  As discussed, CB seems thin this draft, but a mid-round flier is certainly in play.  IOL can always be found later in the draft.  WRs and TEs, on the other hand, gets much more dicey the later you wait.

[Johnstonny]

2 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

CB with a package of plays on offense. That's the best bang for the buck. It's a lot harder to contribute situationally on defense and he's a better CB than WR as is. This is all for moot. He's gone before #8 unless he gets indicted for murder between now and draft day.

$100 we wouldn't know how to use him.... hope hes gone before we get a shot.

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, 45catfan said:

Edge is the only position that we have to get early.  DL, ILB and S can be had later on, no issues there.  As discussed, CB seems thin this draft, but a mid-round flier is certainly in play.  IOL can always be found later in the draft.  WRs and TEs, on the other hand, gets much more dicey the later you wait.

It works out for us--you can get DL in the second, S and LB later---As for TE and WR--yep, but we have players who are developing there--not what we want or maybe need--and we need to address that somehow.  If XL and Coker step up, are we OK with a Restrepo, Bech, or another mid round WR?  If Sanders steps up at TE, can we do some bottom fishing for TE depth?  I would love to have pro bowlers everywhere, but we agree the D is where the attention needs to go..There is already writing on the wall that we are overhauling the D--no extensions for safeties or NT/DEs--maybe I am premature, but I feel that we are shedding our skin.

[kungfoodude]

3 hours ago, 45catfan said:

True, but it's a different dynamic this go around.  Last year the drop off was after QB6, this year it's after QB2.  So once the Falcons unexpectedly took Penix at #8 (being injured) that left only two options for starters with two teams needing starting QBs.  It lined up almost too perfectly.  The Vikings and Broncos knew there was no chance in hell that McCarthy or Nix was sliding to them in the second round if they didn't pull the trigger.  Maybe it was a bit high for them, but not egregiously so.  Taking Dart or even Ewers in the top half of round 1 this year would be reaches of immense proportions.  Again, all the teams at the back end of round 1 have their starting QBs. Go figure that one, playoff teams having a franchise QB.  Possibly the Rams look for a guy to take over for Stafford in a year or two, but I highly doubt it.

Yeah, it is very possible the next QB taken after Ward/Sanders is the 3rd round.

[45catfan]

6 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, it is very possible the next QB taken after Ward/Sanders is the 3rd round.

Some team(s) will pull the trigger in the second round. There's several teams reluctantly returning their starters this year. So I can see one or two of them drafting Dart and/or Ewers in the second round and sitting them a year.  The Saints, Steelers, Seahawks and Browns come to mind.  Based off talent though, yes, the 3rd round is where the value of QB3 is this draft.

[kungfoodude]

20 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Some team(s) will pull the trigger in the second round. There's several teams reluctantly returning their starters this year. So I can see one or two of them drafting Dart and/or Ewers in the second round and sitting them a year.  The Saints, Steelers, Seahawks and Browns come to mind.  Based off talent though, yes, the 3rd round is where the value of QB3 is this draft.

Ewers may very well end up as a Day 3 guy. Dart was okay at the Senior Bowl and Milroe was bad.

This is the weakest QB draft since 2022.

[Donald LaFell]

6 hours ago, PNW_PantherMan said:

If there’s not much difference in moving back a couple spots, finding a good offer might be an issue.

Yeah, you need someone there to move up too. 

[45catfan]

@MHS831, lucky for you when I run my mocks Will Johnson is usually the top guy (not named Jeanty) left standing at #8.  I'm not crazy about drafting another guy coming off an injury even if it is a need position.  Apparently it's a chronic turf toe issue.  Isn't that an injury that lingers forever? I mean, it put him out most of last season.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, 45catfan said:

@MHS831, lucky for you when I run my mocks Will Johnson is usually the top guy (not named Jeanty) left standing at #8.  I'm not crazy about drafting another guy coming off an injury even if it is a need position.  Apparently it's a chronic turf toe issue.  Isn't that an injury that lingers forever? I mean, it put him out most of last season.

I said in another post (I contradict myself quite often but few keep up with it) that it bothers me having 2 CBs who are/might be injury prone.  I am not crazy about the idea--I think he is the best CB in draft, but if it is that injury, I am not sure he needs to play on Tepper Turf. 

I also think Jeanty is a stud and the Eagles and Barkley may have increased the RB value this year--we shall see.  We really need to focus on the defensive front 7 and refrain from cuteness.  Last year, in my opinion, Morgan got cute. 

[PNW_PantherMan]

I thought Jeanty looked super pedestrian in the playoffs.  I honestly wouldn't draft him anywhere in the 1st.

Edited February 18 by PNW_PantherMan