Reading the Tea Leaves: What Did Morgan Just Tell Us?

[MHS831]

First of all, this link of meetings and visits is pretty awesome--hope it is maintained:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_BTyWxt0xO8V4iye0omWMD879YJdnJdO0i6j8mT6htc/edit?gid=0#gid=0

The tea leaves, without further ado: 

In free agency, we addressed the following positions (it does not mean we are finished, but I will offer my take which is valued wisdom on this board--you are welcome.  My theory is not based on what the Panthers did in free agency, it is based on what they did NOT do.  After reviewing how we addressed positions of need, I will, through the process of elimination, take you toward a mind blowing conclusion that will alter the way you look at the Panthers, their front office, their coaches, and women in tights who apparently are proud of things that others do not find appealing.

WE ADDRESSED--

The Defensive Line

• Signed: DE Tershawn Wharton (three years, over $54 million)
• Signed: DT Bobby Brown III (three years, $21 million)
• Tendered offer to exclusive rights free agent defensive lineman LaBryan Ray (I was not a fan of this move)

The Panthers were very aggressive out of the gates going after Milton Williams and then pivoting to plan B that landed them a pass rushing DE (probably to rotate with Robinson and Brown) and an undervalued NT in Bobby Brown.  Tea Leaves:  The Panthers saw DL as their biggest need and they probably wanted veterans in that role.  Graham is perhaps the only DL they'd take at 8, and he is likely to be gone.  I am not a fan of Ray, but we shall see.

The Offensive Line

• Re-signed: C Austin Corbett (one year)
• Tendered offer:  restricted free agent center Cade Mays
• Re-signed: OL Brady Christensen (one year, $2.8 million)

Securing Corbett was a financial decision that gives us either an adequate starter or depth.  I am high on Cade Mays, and with BC on the roster, we are three deep at C and he gives us depth as a swing T as well.  Will we draft Moton's successor?  I am guessing not on day 1.

Defensive Backs

• Extended: CB Jaycee Horn (four years, $100 million)
• Re-signed: CB Michael Jackson (two years, $14.5 million)
• Signed: S Tre'von Moehrig (three years, $51 million)

Locking down Jackson for the next two seasons was a huge signing at a good value.  Horn?  He better stay healthy.  Moehrig is a physical, run stuffing S that should influence who we start at Free Safety, based on the style of play he brings to the defense.  All of these DBs are good tacklers, a common theme.  One could argue that we have our starters in Moehrig and Richardson, who played well as an UDFA last season, but a Free Safety could be on the menu.

Linebackers

• Signed: EDGE Patrick Jones II (two years, up to $20 million)
• Signed: ILB Christian Rozeboom (one year, $2.5 million)

Edge is still a need, but with Clowney, Wonnum, and Jones as locks on the roster, I imagine that edge will be a priority in the draft.  However, I am not sure they will look first round, when it is more likely that the Panthers target a second round edge, perhaps using a fourth and fifth rounder to move up. I think Rozeboom was a bigger signing than most realize now. They have met with quite a few day 1 or 2 edge players, but I think they will, with Clowney on the roster, a more developmental edge with upside.  Princely Umanmielen, Donovan Ezeiruaku, or Josaiah Stewart should be there in the second round.  They have met with Jalon Walker (not shown on the link I shared--combine) and Shemer Stewart, so the first round is not out.

Other depth offensive players:  Running Back, Tight End, Quarterback

• Signed: RB Rico Dowdle (one year, $3 million)
• Re-signed: TE Tommy Tremble (two years, up to $16 million)
• Re-signed: QB Andy Dalton (two years, $8 million)

Dowdle was a steal for that price, and it indicates a commitment to the run, as does the signing of blocking TE Tommy Tremble.  Dalton is paid to be Bryce's BFF; good work if you can get it.  Aside from UDFA candidates, the Panthers have only met with 1 TE, Mason Taylor, at the combine.  As of this writing with the info I have, there is no interest in first round TEs--Mason had a great Combine. 

Special Teams:  Punter and Gunner

• Signed: P Sam Martin (one year, up to $3 million)
• Re-Signed: WR Dan Chisena (one year)

Here, I put Chisena in as a gunner because he would fill that role primarily and serve as an emergency WR.  And that brings me to my point. 

Wide Receivers:  Group Photo

I find it quite odd that Wide Receiver was not seriously addressed in free agency.  I find it VERY INTERESTING that they gave Adam Thielen a raise (probably to keep him from retiring).  Why might they do that?  They knew they were going to ignore WRs in free agency and they were going to focus on a player in the draft.  AT might have reacted when he saw the lack of attention in the free agency--I dunno--but if he retired, it would leave them with Coker and XL and no free agents, save a special team WR who has not been an offensive player.  

GOING INTO FREE AGENCY, WIDE RECEIVER WAS A HUGE NEED--we needed a true #1.  Most do not think there is one in the draft, and it seems the Panthers did not think they could pay a free agent who wanted to play #1 here--especially when they weren't #1 WRs elsewhere.

Now take a look at the WRs on the Panther's meeting/visit list.  Bech at the Sr Bowl.  A third round slot WR.  The rest are UDFA candidates.  Are we hoping to find a Coker again?  Is that the plan?

THE THEORY:  Of course, this can change with the next Newsbreak on NFL Network, but it is my gut feeling that there is a WR in this draft that the Panthers see as a true #1 WR that meets the deep threat criteria.  In my view, it is not TMac. 

The evidence:  The Panthers are obviously hiding their interest in wide receivers, based on the information we have.  Why would a team have 2 needs at such a tremendously important position for your young QB and not meet with any legitimate top WR?  In fact, they have not re-signed Thompkins or Moore. And all we know is the Panthers have contacted perspective UDFAs and a third round prospect from the SR Bowl?   The silence is deafening.

The Panthers are going to draft a WR in round 1.  That WR, based on what the Panthers say they need, is Matthew Golden, a 5'11" burner (4.29 40) from Texas that will back the safeties off the LOS and give the defense fits and concerns.  He aced the 2025 NFL pre-draft process. The Longhorns standout was downright electric at the NFL Combine. Golden ran a position-best 4.29-second 40-yard dash, the second-fastest overall result of any prospect in attendance. He also ran the fastest 10-yard split (1.49) among wideouts.  

 

Edited March 14 by MHS831

[CRA]

I'd rather have him than TMac.  I still would go Warren if going O. 

[ProcessBlue2]

They are going to go offense early and then use the later rounds to build depth on D. Could be McMillian or Golden but I wouldn't write off Tyler Warren either. 

Only starting level gap left on D is the SS position. TM is a FS. 

 

[Tr3ach]

I'm not a TMac fan but I just don't see Golden being worth 8.  He makes some crazy catches but his tape is nowhere near his 40 time.  If we take receiver at 8 I would rather it be a tight end.  If we trade back then sure.

[CanadianCat]

I would rather have Golden with a trade down than TMac at 8. 

[MHS831]

3 minutes ago, CRA said:

I'd rather have him than TMac.  I still would go Warren if going O. 

I think Golden's stock is improving and Dan had a smallish outside WR when he played -- maybe that is in his head.  Of course, this is all a talking point, who knows what they are doing, but it seems as if they have IGNORED WR so far--and that is strange.  Of course, we are not in the know.  Just a bunch of seagulls fighting for scraps.

[MHS831]

Just now, CanadianCat said:

I would rather have Golden with a trade down than TMac at 8. 

I did not mention a trade down, but that is what I would do.  If that is the plan, Morgan would not tip his hand-

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, Tr3ach said:

I'm not a TMac fan but I just don't see Golden being worth 8.  He makes some crazy catches but his tape is nowhere near his 40 time.  If we take receiver at 8 I would rather it be a tight end.  If we trade back then sure.

We could trade back, which would explain the secrecy.  If you trade back and a team knows for whom, they can leapfrog you

[frankw]

I'll be shocked if Golden makes it past the top 20. Thinking a team will roll the dice before that for sure it's an offensive league.

If we take him or Warren I'll be fine with it.

And as far as trading back goes it's such a risk to miss out on a really great talent just to get an extra pick. If we aren't being offered a haul nevermind that poo. Take the guy you believe in who is a top prospect and move along.

[MHS831]

Golden is small and fast.  Morgan's NFL career was spent watching a teammate (3rd rounder) rip defenses apart for a decade--and he was small and fast.  You never know how a type can influence your opinion of excellence.  Again, Golden is probably a value around #15-20, but his value in late April could be around #10. 

The real point here is how they seem--looking at the visits and free agency--to be ignoring a position that is a priority need.   Golden was my guess because I do not see any other WR in round 1 that might meet their specs. Gonna be fun.

[MHS831]

2 minutes ago, frankw said:

I'll be shocked if Golden makes it past the top 20. Thinking a team will roll the dice before that for sure it's an offensive league.

If we take him or Warren I'll be fine with it.

And as far as trading back goes it's such a risk to miss out on a really great talent just to get an extra pick. If we aren't being offered a haul nevermind that poo. Take the guy you believe in who is a top prospect and move along.

I think we could trade back but his stock has been rising.  It could be TE--they did talk to Mason Taylor--and I like him as well.

[CRA]

everyone's reaction will be....

as we trade up to draft a Carolina Gamecock at Saftey Emmanwori .  I have studied the Panthers and run all their prior actions through my newly designed PantherbotAI system.  Prepare.  No point replying about how we could trade back for him or don't need him.  The PantherbotAI has studied these people's past behavior. 

[MHS831]

12 minutes ago, ProcessBlue2 said:

 

Only starting level gap left on D is the SS position. TM is a FS. 

 

Interesting.  Here is what I saw and never questioned:

However, NFL Network calls him a free safety, and he has spent 3 years as the deep safety.  That makes me feel better about the signing.

[frankw]

Just now, MHS831 said:

I think we could trade back but his stock has been rising.  It could be TE--they did talk to Mason Taylor--and I like him as well.

I'm open to options as far as who is the pick we have many needs. I'm just saying as far as trading back it needs to be a situation where we fully dictate the terms and honestly a team is desperate. If it's just us saying "hey let's trade down because we need more assets" that's not a good recipe IMO and that opens the door to us later having regret. Bypass that possibility unless we are fully taking advantage of some other franchise and even then if they are that desperate who are they targeting and should we just take that player instead? I've lived through Scott Fitterer who thought he had the biggest brain in the building every draft. Just no more of that please.