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I am so tired of watching rigged games


hepcat
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It does not benefit the nfl to have a dominant team in the nfc south. Bunch of small market teams who the league benefits more by them having meaningful games against division rivals near the end of the season so people will actually watch and go to the games.
 

Unfortunately, this is how things will be for the foreseeable future.

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1 hour ago, OneBadCat said:

You missed the boat by about 10 years bud.IMG_6643.thumb.jpeg.a0b83856ea3e9edbd0f9fcd23493b726.jpeg

That referee union is an interesting group. Wonder if there will be any changes to their accountability procedures in the next contract which is up for renewal in May? My guess is a resounding NO.

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The question of whether the NFL is "rigged" often conjures images of smoke-filled rooms where outcomes are scripted like a WWE match. While a pre-written script for every game is logistically impossible given the chaos of a live sport, a nuanced examination of the evidence suggests a more disturbing reality: the NFL is not a purely fair sporting competition, but rather a heavily managed entertainment product. Through the mechanisms of referee non-accountability, statistical anomalies in penalty data, and legal classifications that prioritize "spectacle" over "fairness," the league appears to "nudge" games—not necessarily to decide a winner, but to maximize engagement, revenue, and narrative intrigue.

I. The Shield of the Union: Lack of Accountability

The primary mechanism for any potential game manipulation—intentional or subconscious—is the officiating. The NFL Referees Association (NFLRA) operates as a powerful shield that insulates officials from true accountability.

• Part-Time Status: Unlike other major leagues, many NFL officials have historically been part-time employees, splitting focus between the league and other careers.

• The "Dead Period": Collective bargaining agreements often include "dead periods" or blackout windows where the league cannot negotiate or change officiating standards easily, locking in mediocrity.

• Resistance to Transparency: The union has consistently resisted technologies and transparency measures that would tie compensation directly to grading accuracy. While the league does grade officials, these grades are kept private. A bad call that alters a playoff outcome rarely results in a public firing; instead, that official often returns the next season, protected by a contract that prioritizes job security over game integrity.

II. Statistical Anomalies: The "Nudge" in the Numbers

If the games were purely fair, penalty data should be randomly distributed over large sample sizes. However, data analysis reveals patterns that suggest "game management"—the practice of keeping games close and entertaining.

• The "Make-Up Call" Phenomenon: Statistical studies have long shown that penalties are often called to balance the ledger rather than enforce the rules. If a team is penalized heavily in the first half, referees are statistically more likely to penalize the opposing team in the second half, regardless of the actual infractions. This artificially keeps scores close.

• Team-Specific Disparities: A 2024 analysis and previous academic studies (such as those from the University of Iowa and UTEP) have highlighted that certain franchises, like the Kansas City Chiefs, see statistically significant shifts in penalty benefits during the postseason compared to the regular season. Conversely, teams like the Raiders have historically remained among the most penalized regardless of coaching staff or roster changes, suggesting a bias baked into the officiating culture. 

• Home Field "Bias": Data consistently shows home teams receive fewer penalties. While crowd noise plays a role, the disparity often exceeds what can be explained by false starts, bleeding into subjective calls like holding or pass interference. 

III. The Vegas Connection: Managing the Spread

The most compelling argument for "soft rigging" lies not in who wins, but in who covers the spread.

• The "Bad Beat": Officiating decisions often seem to occur in moments that affect the betting line (the "spread") rather than the win/loss outcome. For example, a meaningless defensive holding call late in a blowout can extend a drive just long enough for a "garbage time" touchdown that allows a team to cover a +7.5 spread. 

• The Revenue Model: The NFL's embrace of gambling partners creates a structural conflict of interest. "Nudging" a game to ensure it finishes close (e.g., within one score) keeps viewers tuned in for commercials and keeps live-betting handle high. A blowout is bad for business; a controversy is good for engagement.

IV. The Legal "Entertainment" Defense

Perhaps the most damning evidence is not what happens on the field, but what happens in court. In the 2010 case Mayer v. Belichick (arising from the "Spygate" scandal), the arguments revealed the NFL's true nature.

• The Ruling: The court dismissed a lawsuit from a fan who claimed he was defrauded by a dishonest game. The dismissal was based on the legal principle that a ticket to an NFL game grants a license to view a spectacle, not a contract for a fair, competitive sporting event.

• The Implication: Legally, the NFL is classified closer to "entertainment" (like a concert or wrestling event) than a strictly regulated competitive meritocracy. This legal safety net essentially allows the league to prioritize entertainment value over competitive integrity without fear of being sued for fraud.

Conclusion

Is the NFL rigged? If "rigged" means a pre-written script, the answer is no. But if "rigged" means a system where referee accountability is stifled, penalties are used to manage game flow, and outcomes are nudged to ensure maximum entertainment value and betting engagement, then the answer is a persuasive yes. The NFL is a multi-billion dollar business that sells excitement, and it refuses to leave that product entirely to chance.

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The Smoking Guns: Five Games That Define the "Rigged" Narrative

If the NFL operates as "managed entertainment," certain games serve as the visible cracks in the façade. These are not merely games with bad calls; they are contests where the officiating decisions were so irregular, one-sided, or procedurally bizarre that they defy logical explanation. Below are the most glaring examples where the "human error" defense crumbles under scrutiny, suggesting a league prioritizing narrative and market size over competitive integrity.

I. The Gold Standard: The "NOLA No-Call" (2018 NFC Championship)

• The Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams 

• The Incident: With under two minutes left in a tied game, Saints QB Drew Brees threw a pass to Tommylee Lewis inside the 10-yard line. Rams defender Nickell Robey-Coleman obliterated Lewis before the ball arrived—a textbook definition of pass interference and a helmet-to-helmet hit. 

• The Irregularity: No flag was thrown. Had the penalty been called, the Saints could have run the clock down to seconds and kicked a game-winning field goal to go to the Super Bowl. instead, the Rams won in overtime. 

• The "Fix" Angle: The lack of accountability was staggering. The NFL later privately admitted the error, but the outcome stood. Theories abound that the league preferred a Los Angeles team in the Super Bowl to boost the struggling L.A. market over a small-market New Orleans team. It remains the single most cited piece of evidence for game manipulation in the modern era. 

II. The "Apology" Game: Super Bowl XL (2005)

• The Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• The Incident: The Steelers won 21-10, but the game is infamous for a series of phantom calls against Seattle that killed their momentum and gifted points to Pittsburgh. This included a dubious holding call that negated a Seahawks drive to the 1-yard line and a low-block penalty on QB Matt Hasselbeck while he was making a tackle.

• The Admission: Years later, head referee Bill Leavy publicly apologized to the Seahawks, stating, "I kicked two calls in the fourth quarter and I impacted the game... I'll go to my grave wishing that I'd been better." 

• The "Fix" Angle: An apology does not return a Lombardi Trophy. The game reinforced the idea that "legacy" franchises (like the Steelers) get the benefit of the doubt over newer or less popular franchises (like the Seahawks).

III. The "Phantom" Flag Pick-Up: Lions vs. Cowboys (2014 Wild Card)

• The Game: Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

• The Incident: Detroit led late in the game. On a crucial 3rd down, Cowboys linebacker Anthony Hitchens ran through a Lions receiver without turning his head—clear pass interference. The official threw the flag, announced the penalty (Pass Interference, Defense), and spotted the ball.

• The Irregularity: Minutes later, without review or clear explanation, the officials picked up the flag and waved off the penalty. The Lions were forced to punt; the Cowboys drove downfield to win.

• The "Fix" Angle: It is procedurally almost unheard of for a penalty to be announced and then retracted after such a delay. The Cowboys, "America's Team," are the league's biggest revenue generator. The visual of officials seemingly changing their minds to aid a Cowboys comeback is often cited as a prime example of "managing" the winner.

IV. The "Whistle" & The Stats: Jaguars vs. Patriots (2017 AFC Championship)

• The Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots

• The Incident: The Jaguars, a massive underdog, were leading the Patriots. In the 4th quarter, Jaguars linebacker Myles Jack stripped the ball, recovered it, and had a clear path to the end zone for a game-sealing touchdown.

• The Irregularity: A referee blew the whistle dead immediately, claiming Jack had been touched down by contact (replays showed he had not). This erased the touchdown. Furthermore, the penalty disparity was statistically anomalous: The Jaguars were penalized 6 times for 98 yards, while the Patriots were penalized just 1 time for 10 yards. 

• The "Fix" Angle: The Patriots were the league's dynasty; the Jaguars were a small-market anomaly. The premature whistle prevented an upset that the league's narrative machine likely did not want.

V. The "Do-Over": Chiefs vs. Bengals (2022 AFC Championship)

• The Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• The Incident: Late in the 4th quarter, the Chiefs failed to convert on a crucial 3rd down play. The drive—and the Chiefs' season—seemed to be in jeopardy.

• The Irregularity: Officials intervened, claiming a whistle had blown before the play to reset the clock (a sound almost no one on the field or in the broadcast booth heard). They awarded the Chiefs a "do-over" 3rd down. On this second attempt (and subsequent extension via penalty), the Chiefs continued their drive. 

• The "Fix" Angle: Giving the league's premier superstar (Patrick Mahomes) a second chance at a critical moment fueled accusations that the officials were instructed to ensure the Chiefs reached the Super Bowl.

These examples highlight a consistent theme: when "errors" occur, they overwhelmingly favor the larger market, the bigger star, or the more profitable narrative.

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The House Always Wins: The Financial Architecture of Managed Outcomes

When you peel back the layers of the NFL's operations, the most compelling evidence for a "managed" game isn't just a blown call—it's the flow of money. The league has pivoted from prohibiting gambling to becoming a primary beneficiary of it. This shift has created a structural conflict of interest where the NFL is no longer just the sport regulator; it is the "House." By examining revenue streams, "integrity fees," and data monopolies, we can see how the financial incentives align perfectly with games that are nudged to maximize betting volume and protect the spread.

I. The Billion-Dollar Conflict: Official Partners

For decades, the NFL claimed gambling would destroy the sport's integrity. Today, it is a pillar of their revenue model.

• The Big Three: The league signed five-year partnerships with DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars worth nearly $1 billion. This isn't just advertising; it's deep integration.

• Revenue Growth: In 2024 alone, the NFL reportedly generated over $23 billion in total revenue. A significant and growing portion of this comes from gambling-related sponsorships and data licensing.

• The Conflict: When the league's partners (the sportsbooks) lose money on a "bad outcome" (e.g., a massive public underdog winning), the league's partners suffer. It is in the NFL's best financial interest to ensure their partners remain profitable and stable, creating an inherent bias against outcomes that would bankrupt the books.

II. The "Integrity Fee" & The Data Monopoly

The most cynical mechanism in this relationship is the so-called "Integrity Fee" and the monopoly on "Official League Data."

• The "Royalty" on Betting Volume: The NFL has lobbied states for an "integrity fee"—essentially a tax of roughly 0.25% to 1% on the total handle (amount bet) of NFL games. This means the NFL makes money based on volume, not just who wins.

• The Incentive for Close Games: Betting volume is highest when games are close. Live betting (in-game wagering) evaporates during a blowout. Therefore, a referee "nudging" a game to keep it within one score doesn't just make for good TV; it literally generates millions in extra betting handle (and thus revenue) for the league and its partners.

• Official Data Rights: The NFL mandates that sportsbooks use "Official League Data" to settle in-game bets. This means the NFL controls the very stream of information that determines if a prop bet (e.g., "Will the next play be a run or pass?") wins or loses. They own the game, the referees, and the data feed—a completely closed loop.

III. Managing the Spread: The "Hook" and the "Backdoor Cover"

The most precise tool for managing outcomes is the manipulation of the "spread" (the point margin). "Rigging" a win is clumsy; "managing" a cover is subtle.

• The "Hook" (0.5 Points): Vegas often sets lines ending in a half-point (e.g., Chiefs -3.5) to ensure there is no tie (push).

• The Scenario: The Chiefs are winning by 3 points with 2 minutes left. They are covering the win, but failing to cover the spread (-3.5).

• The Nudge: A subjective "defensive holding" call gives the Chiefs a fresh set of downs, allowing them to score a meaningless late touchdown or field goal. Suddenly, they win by 6 or 10. The public (who mostly bet the favorite) wins, the books take a hit, but the engagement remains high. Alternatively, a phantom offensive holding call stalls the drive, forcing a punt, ensuring the underdog covers.

• The "Middle": Referees can manipulate game flow to land the final score in a "middle" ground where the vast majority of bets lose or push, maximizing profit for the sportsbooks.

IV. Case Study: The "Fix" Aligned with the Money

Let's look at the 2022 AFC Championship (Chiefs vs. Bengals) through a betting lens.

• The Line: The Chiefs were favored by -1.5 to -2.0 points at kickoff.

• The "Do-Over" Play: Late in the 4th quarter, with the game tied 20-20, the Chiefs failed on a 3rd down. A punt would have given the Bengals the ball with a chance to win. The officials granted the unprecedented "do-over" play, citing a whistle no one heard.

• The Result: The Chiefs eventually won by 3 points (23-20).

• The Betting Alignment:

• Moneyline: Chiefs bettors won.

• Spread: Because the Chiefs won by 3, they covered the -1.5 spread.

• The "Nudge": If the "do-over" hadn't happened, the Bengals likely get the ball back. Even if the Bengals just forced overtime or won, the millions of dollars on the Chiefs (the public favorite) would have been lost. The "do-over" saved the drive, the game, and the payout for the majority of the public bettors, keeping the "Golden Boy" (Mahomes) in the Super Bowl—the most profitable outcome for the league's narrative.

Conclusion: The "Entertainment" Product

The NFL's defense in court (that they are a "spectacle") combined with their financial partnerships creates a reality where competitive integrity is secondary to revenue optimization.

• The Reality: They don't need to "fix" every game. They just need to ensure that primetime games remain competitive enough to drive live betting, and that the outcomes generally align with the long-term financial health of their partners.

• The Verdict: When a referee throws a flag in the 4th quarter that seems to defy logic, look at the spread. You will often find that the flag didn't just change the down—it saved the House.

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The "Fix" is in the Personnel: Referee Tendencies as Management Tools

If the NFL is "managed," the primary lever for that management is crew assignment. A "rigged" game doesn't require a backroom bribe; it simply requires assigning a referee crew whose known statistical biases align with the league's desired outcome. By analyzing data from the 2023-2025 seasons, we can categorize specific officials into "profiles" that sophisticated bettors—and likely the league itself—use to predict game flow.

I. The "Over" Architects (For High-Scoring Spectacles)

When the league needs a primetime game (like Monday Night Football) to be an exciting shootout, they can assign crews that historically "swallow the whistle," allowing offenses to operate without rhythm-killing flags.

• Bill Vinovich: The "Let Them Play" King.

• The Stat: In the 2024 season, Vinovich's crew averaged the lowest number of flags per game (12.76) and the fewest offensive holding calls (1.59 per game).

• The "Management" Angle: Fewer holding calls mean quarterbacks have more time to throw and drives aren't stalled by 10-yard penalties. Assigning Vinovich to a game involving a superstar QB (like Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow) virtually guarantees a cleaner, higher-scoring game. It is no coincidence Vinovich is frequently assigned to Super Bowls, where the league wants a fluid, exciting product rather than a penalty-fest.

• Alex Moore & Scott Novak: The "Over" Darlings.

• The Stat: In recent data, Alex Moore’s crew hit the "Over" (total points) in nearly 77% of their games. Scott Novak followed closely at nearly 70%.

• The Betting Edge: These crews tend to call defensive pass interference (DPI) more strictly than offensive holding, which directly gifts yardage to offenses and extends drives.

II. The "Under" Enforcers (For Keeping Games Close)

Conversely, if the league needs to slow down a runaway offense or keep a game close to the spread, they can assign "flag-happy" crews that disrupt game flow.

• Shawn Hochuli: The Drive Killer.

• The Stat: Hochuli’s crew is consistently among the league leaders in total penalties and specifically offensive holding. In 2024, his crew averaged over 3.2 holding calls per game.

• The "Management" Angle: Offensive holding is the most effective tool to kill a drive. A 1st-and-20 is statistically much harder to convert than a 1st-and-10. If a team like the Chiefs or Bills is favored by 10 points, assigning Hochuli increases the variance, allowing the underdog to hang around as the favorite's drives stall out due to flags.

• Adrian Hill: The "Under" Specialist.

• The Stat: Hill’s crew has a career trend of hitting the "Under" in roughly 55-60% of games, with an even higher percentage in divisional matchups.

• The Betting Edge: His crew calls a tighter game on procedural penalties (false starts, illegal formation), which stops the clock less often than major fouls but keeps offenses "behind the sticks," leading to more punts.

III. The "Home Cookers" (Protecting the Home Team)

Certain referees show a statistical deviation that heavily favors the home team, often attributed to being influenced by crowd noise—or perhaps a tendency to support the "house" advantage.

• Brad Allen: The Home Field Guardian.

• The Stat: Since 2016, home teams have won straight up in roughly 58-60% of games officiated by Allen, covering the spread at a rate significantly higher than the league average.

• The "Management" Angle: In a playoff game where the home team is a major market favorite, Allen is a "safe" assignment. His tendency to let the home crowd influence 50/50 calls (like pass interference) reinforces the home field advantage.

• Carl Cheffers: The "Chiefs" Anomaly.

• The Stat: Cheffers has been a statistical outlier regarding the Kansas City Chiefs. Analysis has shown his crews call significantly more penalties against the Chiefs than the league average.

• The "Management" Angle: This seemingly contradicts the "rigged for the Chiefs" narrative, but it serves a different purpose: Handicapping. If the Chiefs are too dominant, assigning Cheffers creates artificial adversity, ensuring the game remains close (and within the betting spread) rather than a blowout.

IV. The "Wild Card": Clete Blakeman

• The Profile: Chaos.

• The Stat: Blakeman’s crew led the league in 2024 with over 300 total flags.

• The "Management" Angle: When Blakeman is assigned, the outcome becomes high-variance. The sheer volume of penalties means the referees have an outsized impact on the result. This is ideal for "trap games" where the league might want to introduce chaos into a matchup that looks like a guaranteed blowout on paper.

Conclusion: It's Not a Script, It's an Algorithm

Sophisticated bettors do not bet on teams; they bet on combinations of teams and referees.

• The Formula: Elite Passing Offense + Bill Vinovich = Bet the Over.

• The Formula: Sloppy O-Line + Shawn Hochuli = Bet the Under.

If you were the NFL, and you wanted to ensure a "fair" but "entertaining" product, you wouldn't tell a referee to fix a game. You would simply assign the referee whose natural tendencies make the desired outcome (a close game, a high-scoring game, or a home win) statistically probable.

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12 minutes ago, hepcat said:

The Smoking Guns: Five Games That Define the "Rigged" Narrative

If the NFL operates as "managed entertainment," certain games serve as the visible cracks in the façade. These are not merely games with bad calls; they are contests where the officiating decisions were so irregular, one-sided, or procedurally bizarre that they defy logical explanation. Below are the most glaring examples where the "human error" defense crumbles under scrutiny, suggesting a league prioritizing narrative and market size over competitive integrity.

I. The Gold Standard: The "NOLA No-Call" (2018 NFC Championship)

• The Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams 

• The Incident: With under two minutes left in a tied game, Saints QB Drew Brees threw a pass to Tommylee Lewis inside the 10-yard line. Rams defender Nickell Robey-Coleman obliterated Lewis before the ball arrived—a textbook definition of pass interference and a helmet-to-helmet hit. 

• The Irregularity: No flag was thrown. Had the penalty been called, the Saints could have run the clock down to seconds and kicked a game-winning field goal to go to the Super Bowl. instead, the Rams won in overtime. 

• The "Fix" Angle: The lack of accountability was staggering. The NFL later privately admitted the error, but the outcome stood. Theories abound that the league preferred a Los Angeles team in the Super Bowl to boost the struggling L.A. market over a small-market New Orleans team. It remains the single most cited piece of evidence for game manipulation in the modern era. 

II. The "Apology" Game: Super Bowl XL (2005)

• The Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• The Incident: The Steelers won 21-10, but the game is infamous for a series of phantom calls against Seattle that killed their momentum and gifted points to Pittsburgh. This included a dubious holding call that negated a Seahawks drive to the 1-yard line and a low-block penalty on QB Matt Hasselbeck while he was making a tackle.

• The Admission: Years later, head referee Bill Leavy publicly apologized to the Seahawks, stating, "I kicked two calls in the fourth quarter and I impacted the game... I'll go to my grave wishing that I'd been better." 

• The "Fix" Angle: An apology does not return a Lombardi Trophy. The game reinforced the idea that "legacy" franchises (like the Steelers) get the benefit of the doubt over newer or less popular franchises (like the Seahawks).

III. The "Phantom" Flag Pick-Up: Lions vs. Cowboys (2014 Wild Card)

• The Game: Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

• The Incident: Detroit led late in the game. On a crucial 3rd down, Cowboys linebacker Anthony Hitchens ran through a Lions receiver without turning his head—clear pass interference. The official threw the flag, announced the penalty (Pass Interference, Defense), and spotted the ball.

• The Irregularity: Minutes later, without review or clear explanation, the officials picked up the flag and waved off the penalty. The Lions were forced to punt; the Cowboys drove downfield to win.

• The "Fix" Angle: It is procedurally almost unheard of for a penalty to be announced and then retracted after such a delay. The Cowboys, "America's Team," are the league's biggest revenue generator. The visual of officials seemingly changing their minds to aid a Cowboys comeback is often cited as a prime example of "managing" the winner.

IV. The "Whistle" & The Stats: Jaguars vs. Patriots (2017 AFC Championship)

• The Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots

• The Incident: The Jaguars, a massive underdog, were leading the Patriots. In the 4th quarter, Jaguars linebacker Myles Jack stripped the ball, recovered it, and had a clear path to the end zone for a game-sealing touchdown.

• The Irregularity: A referee blew the whistle dead immediately, claiming Jack had been touched down by contact (replays showed he had not). This erased the touchdown. Furthermore, the penalty disparity was statistically anomalous: The Jaguars were penalized 6 times for 98 yards, while the Patriots were penalized just 1 time for 10 yards. 

• The "Fix" Angle: The Patriots were the league's dynasty; the Jaguars were a small-market anomaly. The premature whistle prevented an upset that the league's narrative machine likely did not want.

V. The "Do-Over": Chiefs vs. Bengals (2022 AFC Championship)

• The Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• The Incident: Late in the 4th quarter, the Chiefs failed to convert on a crucial 3rd down play. The drive—and the Chiefs' season—seemed to be in jeopardy.

• The Irregularity: Officials intervened, claiming a whistle had blown before the play to reset the clock (a sound almost no one on the field or in the broadcast booth heard). They awarded the Chiefs a "do-over" 3rd down. On this second attempt (and subsequent extension via penalty), the Chiefs continued their drive. 

• The "Fix" Angle: Giving the league's premier superstar (Patrick Mahomes) a second chance at a critical moment fueled accusations that the officials were instructed to ensure the Chiefs reached the Super Bowl.

These examples highlight a consistent theme: when "errors" occur, they overwhelmingly favor the larger market, the bigger star, or the more profitable narrative.

I don’t feel bad for the saints for a single second for the 2018 game on one (admittedly) badly blown call, when they got gifted a free win in the NFCC against the Vikings the year they won the Super Bowl. The refs managed to let them simultaneously execute bounty gate and throw a flag anytime an incomplete pass would stop a drive they needed on offense. It was the NFLs version of Game 6 of the infamous kings-lakers series. 

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6 minutes ago, PantherChris said:

Games aren't rigged this team is just a pretender 

Yep.

Likewise, I 've always wondered why it's never "rigged"  when we win.

For the rigged game narrative to be believable, you have to be able to make a convincing argument that we could have won the game if it weren't. Our prior game performance vs the Saints fix makes that a more difficult task.

What makes it even more difficult is when you can point to identifiable mistakes.

You can certainly do that in today's game.

Edited by Mr. Scot
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