Going for it instead of leading by two scores in the 4th

[CPantherKing]

20 hours ago, hepcat said:

The playcall was doo doo is the main problem here 

Can you see the open gap? Bad play call or poorly executed by Chuba? All you needed to do was run off Ekwonu to the defenders foot with some straight ahead power running. The play call pulled the LB from filling the gap between Ekwonu & Tremble. Jump cutting to the right side when the play is a 33 dive? Seems like a significant lack of vision & decision making by the RB was the main problem.

Edited 11 hours ago by CPantherKing

[CPantherKing]

21 hours ago, TheBigKat said:

I’m not being cute and I’ve seen a fair amount of football. Can someone walk me into the rationale of that

Up a TD in 4Q with field position. Half a yard for a first down. 11 minutes on the clock.

The probability of making a 52 yard FG is 71%, the probability of having a FG blocked is 2%, and the probability of a FG block being returned for a TD is 15%. The probability of a defense stuffing a run is 44%, the probability of a fumble is 1%, and the probability of a fumble being returned for a TD is 0.5%. With the lead, is a 15% success rate increase worth the 100% increase in turnover chance with a 2900% scoring opportunity increase for the defense?

The opposing team only has 2 more drives with a possible 3rd drive in 4Q. The probability of an offense scoring back to back on their final 2 drives with long fields after only scoring 10 points in the first 50 minutes of the game is 10%.

So, kicking the FG and missing it would still give the opposing team the same probability of scoring on their next 2 drives while giving them an increased chance of scoring on a blocked FG.

Win probability would increase by 5-10% with a 1st down at that point and 10-15% with a FG. So, is an increase of 5% win probability worth the risk of messing up the FG? Keep in mind, the play call had an open gap that the RBs vision failed to see leading to the failed 4th down run. A failed FG would have been worse and it wasn't a chip shot.

Canales made the right call by trusting Bryce, Chuba, the OL, and Evero at that moment. All 4 of them messed up though.

This is also assuming the Panthers would not have any success of scoring a FG on their final 2 drives or having the defense keep the offense to FGs for the remainder of the last 11 minutes of the game, which we all were not factoring in.

I don't believe taking the chance of the FG going wrong versus the 4th and 1 going wrong is worth lowering the Saints probability of winning by 5% as you are in control of the game at 80%+ win probability.

The HC should challenge their team to play like a champion at that point and execute to win at least half of their matchups for the next 11 minutes. Canales made the right choice and trusted the team.

[raleigh-panther]

22 hours ago, TheBigKat said:

It would have been a 52 yarder

And if the field goal was missed, you’d be saying he should have gone for it.

it was inches.  A pro team that can’t get inches should be on the field much less thinking they are in playoff contention 

it was a poor play call selection and worse execution 

[CPantherKing]

26 minutes ago, raleigh-panther said:

And if the field goal was missed, you’d be saying he should have gone for it.

it was inches.  A pro team that can’t get inches should be on the field much less thinking they are in playoff contention 

it was a poor play call selection and worse execution 

It was not a poor play call. Rico pulled the LB out of the 5 gap with a sealed running lane. Chuba did a lateral jump cut away from the hole to the right side of the OL. There was an easy 1 to 2 yards if Chuba runs off Ekwonu's block. The play call worked and the defense was moved. Chuba wasn't suppose to jump cut over to the right side with the defense crashing down unblocked from that side. The blocking was set up for the 3 or 5 gap off Ekwonu.

Edited 8 hours ago by CPantherKing

[Jackson113.2]

[Panthro]

Why the hell don’t we put a tremble like player back there under center to pick up a yard

hey we’re going to sneak it 

get fuged

[OneBadCat]

I didn’t hate the decision as much as I hated the play call. It was half a yard. Bryce could have got that.