Statistical Analyses of Newton and Gabbert

[Ricky Spanish]

Newton:

http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2011_Newton_2-24-2011.htm

Gabbert:

http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Content/NFL-Draft_2011_Gabbert_2-17-2011.htm

I find what these guys do incredibly interesting. they use math and statistics from previous players in college to compare the probably of success in prospects this year. they have stats on everything, it's actually pretty cool. they run numbers every which way to try and find the best way to predict who will bust and who won't.

for those who don't care to read, Newton compares to Vince Young statistically speaking from his last year in college. they say that if his wownderlic is above 25, he can be great. if it is 24 or below, he will most likely suck.

Gabbert, they say, is most likely going to bust.

I'm now on the draft Patrick Peterson bandwagon folks.

Oh and here is the mathematical formula that they use and junk:

http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Content/QB_College-QB-Vers1.0_2-17-2011.htm

[OnlyPantherFaninMaine]

Welcome aboard the PP7 train.

[Stumpy]

Give me a break with this guy.

He, by his own admission, tried to create a statistical predictor based on current top six NFL QBs. First of all, that is far to small of a pool to create any sort of reliable statistical analysis. Secondly, while it may be possible to predict whether a QB will have success coming out of college, I would argue that it would be absolutely impossible to predict who will become a HOF caliber QB. (Brady and Manning are 1st ballot, Big Ben and Brees are 1 more ring away and Rodgers and Rivers are on the track towards it.) If he wanted an accurate predictor, why not use the pro bowl QBs from the past 5-10 years?

Then you get to his results, his list of QBs who had “'bust' or never make it potential" coming out of college includes 9 entrenched starting QBs in the NFL.

18. Matt Stafford

20. Matt Ryan*

23. Eli Manning*

29. Josh Freeman

30. Donovan McNabb*

35. Tony Romo*

37. Jay Cutler*

54. Kyle Orton

57. David Garrard*

* Pro Bowl QBs

Not to mention, based on his rankings...

Beck

Leaf

Couch

Carr

Harrington

Jawalrus

Leinart

...all should have had more successful careers than...

Josh Freeman

Donovan McNabb

Tony Romo

Jay Cutler

Kyle Orton

David Garrard

I think I'll pass on this guys system for evaluation.

[Marguide]

Newton:

http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/NFL%20Draft/NFL%20Draft_2011_Newton_2-24-2011.htm

Gabbert:

http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Content/NFL-Draft_2011_Gabbert_2-17-2011.htm

I find what these guys do incredibly interesting. they use math and statistics from previous players in college to compare the probably of success in prospects this year. they have stats on everything, it's actually pretty cool. they run numbers every which way to try and find the best way to predict who will bust and who won't.

for those who don't care to read, Newton compares to Vince Young statistically speaking from his last year in college. they say that if his wownderlic is above 25, he can be great. if it is 24 or below, he will most likely suck.

Gabbert, they say, is most likely going to bust.

I'm now on the draft Patrick Peterson bandwagon folks.

We went over this a couple of weeks ago. Read it again. He equates Newton to Young given the assumption that Newton is below average on the Wonderlic.

With an average score on the Wonderlic, he would rate a .89 which puts him miles above Young given his system.

An above average score on the Wonderlic would put him with the elite QB's.

I don't put a lot of stock in his system, but let's at least get the facts straight.

[YourMomsLover]

PP7 train pi for ye.

[mav1234]

I don't want either of them but I have issues with any analysis tool whose validity is based upon the fact that it predicts the success of the people it was built around and ignores the people it said would do well but didn't. Meh.

[LinvilleGorge]

I don't put much faith in the analysis of guys that are more concerned with fantasy football numbers than they are about Ws and Ls.

[vorbis]

i think the fact that, based on his system, newton's potential could be one thing at wonderlic 24, and a totally different thing at 25, speaks to the incomplete scope of his predictions.

[Urrymonster]

We went over this a couple of weeks ago. Read it again. He equates Newton to Young given the assumption that Newton is below average on the Wonderlic.

With an average score on the Wonderlic, he would rate a .89 which puts him miles above Young given his system.

An above average score on the Wonderlic would put him with the elite QB's.

I don't put a lot of stock in his system, but let's at least get the facts straight.

That isn't what he said at all.

His comparison to Young was purely based on their passing outputs, nothing to do with the wonderlic. He actually presumed Newton will get a 'good' or 'great' score and that is what has put him as a better prospect than Young.

[Catalyst]

Newton will be a Panther. This PP7 train is going to be derailed before it ever leaves the station.

[Shermdog]

IMHO, All these comparisons to Vince Young are not a bad thing as long as its not saying Cam has his attitude or brains. Vince would be a great QB if he just didn't have his attitude issues and he wasn't dumb as a brick (scored 7 on the wonderlic I think).

[Catalyst]

Exactly!

[jramsey4]

Give me a break with this guy.

He, by his own admission, tried to create a statistical predictor based on current top six NFL QBs. First of all, that is far to small of a pool to create any sort of reliable statistical analysis. Secondly, while it may be possible to predict whether a QB will have success coming out of college, I would argue that it would be absolutely impossible to predict who will become a HOF caliber QB. (Brady and Manning are 1st ballot, Big Ben and Brees are 1 more ring away and Rodgers and Rivers are on the track towards it.) If he wanted an accurate predictor, why not use the pro bowl QBs from the past 5-10 years?

Then you get to his results, his list of QBs who had “'bust' or never make it potential" coming out of college includes 9 entrenched starting QBs in the NFL.

18. Matt Stafford

20. Matt Ryan*

23. Eli Manning*

29. Josh Freeman

30. Donovan McNabb*

35. Tony Romo*

37. Jay Cutler*

54. Kyle Orton

57. David Garrard*

* Pro Bowl QBs

Not to mention, based on his rankings...

Beck

Leaf

Couch

Carr

Harrington

Jawalrus

Leinart

...all should have had more successful careers than...

Josh Freeman

Donovan McNabb

Tony Romo

Jay Cutler

Kyle Orton

David Garrard

I think I'll pass on this guys system for evaluation.

Out of all those guys how many have one a Super Bowl. Mcnabb is the only one who has even been to a SB.

In his top 13 the QB's have a combined 9 SB rings. And his scale only went back to 98 with Manning/Leaf so 9 of the last 12 SB winners are in his top 13.

His system is not perfect he said so his self, but it is fairly accurate. I mean most GM's would kill to have a 70% success rate.

[Marguide]

That isn't what he said at all.

His comparison to Young was purely based on their passing outputs, nothing to do with the wonderlic. He actually presumed Newton will get a 'good' or 'great' score and that is what has put him as a better prospect than Young.

The following is directly from the site.

Cam Newton Overall Score = 0.889 (see historical rating chart via link below)

Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

Currently Newton is above our "magic" 0.850 score, projecting to a good/great NFL QB potentially. Again, that is with a average Wonderlic score plugged in. If Newton produces a bad Wonderlic score, it will throw him down to just another exciting college QB -- like it did to Vince Young in our system and (to a lesser degree) The Golden Calf of Bristol. An above average score is going to keep Newton with the high quality group.