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Will the combine hurt Blackmons stock?


jarhead

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1. Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon (6-1/215/4.54) - Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

what rotoworld said about him yesterday in relation to him being overrated.

http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39879/60/draft-2012-the-overrated

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Unless Blackmon really amazes at the combine, I think he'll be there when we pick, but probably not much longer after. I have the same opinion of Blackmon as I had in December. He could be a good #2 WR, but he's not going to be much of a verticle threat, he can't replace Smith as our #1, he might not go in the top 10, ect.. it's all in this thread.

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/forum/carolina-panthers/74610-todd-mcshays-1st-nfl-mock-draft.html

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But why does it change the player that he is on the field? Everyone has seen him play and everyone knows what he can do on the field. If you liked the way he played with pads on 11 v 11, why would it matter what he does in the combine? Your opinion shouldn't change unless something drastic happens. People know he isn't a speed guy that will out run you on a play to play basis. People know him as a well rounded WR that has good hands, can attack the ball in the air, runs great routes, and can block well.

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These guys are doing nothing but training right now and he must feel pretty good about his 40. He says he is going to run at the combine and predicts between a 4.4-4.5 time.

I agree that if he runs a 4.6+, then he might drop to us. Then, we can take him, or trade back most likely.

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    • no doubt but flip that.   The current system insures that there are "regional" games in the early weeks. maximizing the reach of playoff football.  If all of the WC weekend for a conference took place on the west coast they are reducing the "reach" of their hype machine.
    • Hard to say with London--he never ran--combine or pro day.  Here is what AI says, and it is always 100% accurate: Drake London's 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine was not recorded because he was dealing with a fractured ankle at the time. While he didn't participate in the 40 at the Combine or his pro day, his coach said his 40 time was estimated to be between 4.4 and 4.53 seconds. Some sources also list his 40 time at 4.58 and 4.6 seconds Unless you are running 9s all day, top end 40 speed is rarely reached.  I have always looked at the 3-cone drill.  At his pro day, TMac ran a 6.86--pretty good, actually.  For context, it is faster that Rome Odunze (6.88) who ran a 4.45 40.  Odunze is 6'3" and weighs 216, fwiw, and is considered a very good route runner with no wasted motion.  Mike Evans 3-cone was 7.08.  To put it in a broader context, through 2022, with all NFL prospect 3-cone drills combined, a 6.86 puts TMac in the.89th percentile-  Now consider the fact that he is 6'4" and 220.   We might have something here.  '  
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